Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ntxw]

I'm not familiar with SAL climatology, so is it normal to have an outbreak in late Sept/early Oct? I know the Eastern Atlantic isn't that much in the grand scheme at this stage but I'm wondering if this is typical or out of the ordinary?

[CrazyC83]

Re: dry air and late SAL outbreak, it just means we can forget about tropical waves the rest of the way. I think we could see a couple of non-tropical origin storms though (97L type).

[Hammy]

Concerning speculation that the season is over because it's been quiet the last week or so, here are some statistics out there, 43% of years had no storms in the first third of October, and below are listed along with the first storm after September:

1970: 10/12
1971: 10/19
1972: 11/1
1975: 10/24
1976: 10/22
1977: 10/13
1979: 10/23
1981: 10/29
1982: -
1983: -
1986: 11/18
1989: 10/13
1991: 10/15
1992: 10/22
1993: -
1994: 11/3
2002: -
2006: -
2007: 10/25
2011: 10/22

1973, 1979, 1986, 1989, 1991, had nothing forming between Sep 18 and Oct 9.

And of the years that had the last storm in September, all of them had at least one named storm form during the last third of the month: 1982 (Sep 30), 1983 (Sep 26), 1993 (Sep 20), 2002 (Sep 21 and Sep 23), and 2006 (Sep 28).

interestingly, 1972-73 are similar to 2013-14 in that 1972 produced only a few low-level hurricanes and mostly tropical storms (less storms than 2013 but that may change with the reanalysis as there were numerous depressions) whereas 1973 produced (so far) the same number of storms, all pretty much widely spaced apart time-wise, but stronger systems overall than 1972. 1973 gets special mention as well because Ellen was the only hurricane and one of only two storms to form in September, similar to this year, and followed a similar track and formed around the same time, and also took forever to intensify before reaching hurricane and eventually Cat 3 status at a higher latitude.

I do pretty much agree with mostly everyone here that the Cape Verde season is dead at this point (though it barely even came alive to start with)

[Sanibel]

This has been one of the easiest seasons to do your daily tropical check. Just a couple of minutes and you're done for the day.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters made a good discussion about the 2014 North Atlantic season in terms of how it fares with past below average seasons and what to expect if anything during the rest of the season.

The traditional busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, September, is now over, and we are on the home stretch. Just three weeks remain of the peak danger portion of the season. September 2014 ended up with just two named storms forming--Dolly and Edouard. Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, only one season has seen fewer named storms form in September--1997, with Category 3 Hurricane Erika being the only September storm. Between 1995 - 2014, an average of 4.3 named storms formed in September. With only five named storms so far in 2014, this is the quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1986, when we also had just five named storms by the beginning of October. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), activity in the Atlantic up until October 1 has been only about 43% of the 1981 - 2010 average.

Forecast for the remainder of hurricane season

Looking at climatology, since 1995, we have seen an average of 3.6 named storms form in the Atlantic after October. Two of those years--2006 and 2002--saw no storms form after October 1. The most post-October 1 storms was eleven, which occurred in 2005--no surprise there! The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS and European models show a continuation of the basic atmospheric pattern we've seen over the tropical Atlantic this season, with plenty of dry, sinking air. These conditions should lead to lower than average activity into mid-October, which is when historically, Atlantic hurricane activity begins to drop sharply. I expect we'll see at least one more named storm in the Atlantic this year, with two a more likely number. It's unlikely we'll get three or more post-October 1 named storms.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... #commentop

[CYCLONE MIKE]

If the gulf and Caribbean had been more favorable this year might would agree, but since not I doubt we will see more than one especially since the weak cape Verde season is about all but over.

[cycloneye]

Off topic= Invest 98L is up

[SeGaBob]

This thread should be renamed "Negative thoughts on the rest of the 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane Season" because that's all this is... I still think 2-3 decent storms will form (not in the MDR) before the season ends.

[ConvergenceZone]

This thread should be renamed "Negative thoughts on the rest of the 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane Season" because that's all this is... I still think 2-3 decent storms will form (not in the MDR) before the season ends.

The thing is, people keep bringing up past years....Such as <insert year> had this many storms after September, and <insert year> had that many storms after September....However, 2014 is not those years...I'm sure the atmospheric conditions aren't the same etc....So just because it happened in those years doesn't mean it's going to happen this year...I think the reason people are skeptical(me included) is because we keep looking at the Satellite/Maps and all we see is horrible conditions, whether it's dry air, or shear, or lack of convection etc.....I've been tracking the tropics for long enough that I can remember looking out at the tropics plenty of years in the past in early October, and even though there wasn't any activity, the conditions were ripe and there was plenty of convection....So you could pretty much tell that we would probably get a few more storms...Not so in 2014....I guess we'll just have to wait and see if those say there will be a few more storms are correct or not....That will ultimately determine who was correct...

[Sanibel]

In my opinion the only way we will get another storm is if the conditions change or another system finds a lucky pocket like Edouard.

[WeatherGuesser]

ABNT20 KNHC 021729
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


.................

That's basically the first third of October gone.

[jlauderdal]

This has been one of the easiest seasons to do your daily tropical check. Just a couple of minutes and you're done for the day.

hurricane supplies purchased in 2005 are hanging tough..wonder how that chef boy r dee would taste after 10 years..did have a waterspout in deerfield beach tonight and of course never forget 92L a few weeks ago

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah that 92l was pretty brutal. How is the cleanup and rebuilding coming along? That patio chair took a beating didn't it

[weatherfanatic]

The GFS and CMC certainly think the second half of October will be busy, CMC also has a storm coming from the east around 240 hrs (but I will hold that one with a grain of salt).

[MGC]

I think the fat lady is stepping up to the microphone and clearing her throat.....Shear looks like wintertime. Small outside chance we get another TC in the Atlantic IMO......MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

The GFS and CMC certainly think the second half of October will be busy, CMC also has a storm coming from the east around 240 hrs (but I will hold that one with a grain of salt).

If I had a dollar everytime the models predicted things would get more active and they actually didn't, I'd be a rich man right now, so no, I don't pay any attention to them, especially this year............I'm still waiting for those 2 to 3 more storms people are predicting we are going to get...We are getting ready to head into mid October...So when do we suppose to get those 2 or 3 more storms?

[Hammy]

The GFS and CMC certainly think the second half of October will be busy, CMC also has a storm coming from the east around 240 hrs (but I will hold that one with a grain of salt).

If I had a dollar everytime the models predicted things would get more active and they actually didn't, I'd be a rich man right now, so no, I don't pay any attention to them, especially this year............I'm still waiting for those 2 to 3 more storms people are predicting we are going to get...We are getting ready to head into mid October...So when do we suppose to get those 2 or 3 more storms?

Euro is starting to show the first hints now of something forming in the NW Caribbean in about a week.

[Ntxw]

Regarding the Atlantic contest (names) if you included ACE and was under 40 youre looking good. In the chance something does form per GFS it would be very quick moving so big ACE addition the rest of this year seems unlikely. Unless in the unlikely odds a long tracking major across the MDR recurves than anything more than 10 is virtually impossible. CSU should be coming out soon for the final 2 week update. Probably below average which has made them look good this season in their updates, but to be fair it has been quite easy to just say below normal and be right.

[WeatherGuesser]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

...................

Anybody ready to call it yet?

[Hammy]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

...................

Anybody ready to call it yet?

A few have been ready to call the season over since July. There are still 51 days beyond the five day outlook so that is meaningless as to whether or not something will form in those 51 days.