Global model runs discussion

[Hurricaneman]

heres a summary of the models

GEM: Has a weak low in the Yucatan Channel
18zGFS: Tracks over Western Cuba and runs the east coast and bombs to a 948mb low near the Canadian Maritimes starts formation at about 96hrs and develops a low at about 150hrs
12zEuro: has lowering pressures around 96hrs but no low develops but its very close to doing so so lets watch the 0Z run to see if it starts to show a low\
18zNAVGEM:Has a lowering of pressures at about 72hrs and develops something at about 108hrs

so this is starting to catch my attention and needs to be monitored because about 2\3 of October storms that form in this area indeed become hurricanes and about 1\4th of tropical systems become major hurricanes based on my research and here are the numbers since 1900

2005 Wilma 185mph
1998 Mitch 180mph
1924 Hurricane10 165mph
1961 Hattie 160mph
1999 Lenny 155mph
1952 Fox 150mph
1926 Hurricane10 150mph
1910 Hurricane5 150mph
2008 Paloma 145mph
1944 Hurricane13 145mph
2001 Michelle 140mph
1921 Hurricane6 140mph
2008 Omar 130mph
1950 King 130mph
1964 Isbell 125mph
1948 Hurricane9 125mph
1933 Hurricane17 125mph
1909 Hurricane11 120mph
1906 Hurricane8 120mph
1905 Hurricane4 120mph
2012 Sandy 115mph
2011 Rina 115mph
2005 Beta 115mph
1996 Lili 115mph
1995 Roxanne 115mph
1955 Katie 115mph
1934 Hurricane13 115mph
1912 Hurricane7 115mph
1999 Irene 110mph
1922 Hurricane4 110mph
1916 Hurricane14 110mph
2010 Paula 105mph
2009 Ida 105mph
1969 Laurie 105mph
1947 Hurricane9 105mph
1909 Hurricane12 105mph
1908 Hurricane 9 105mph
2010 Richard 100mph
1980 Jeanne 100mph
1946 Hurricane6 100mph
1945 Hurricane11 100mph
1912 Hurricane6 100mph
1984 Klaus 90mph
1969 Martha 90mph
1958 Janice 90mph
1945 Hurricane10 90mph
1939 Hurricane6 90mph
1933 Hurricane18 90mph
1994 Gordon 85mph
1981 Katrina 85mph
1968 Gladys 85mph
1935 Hurricane6 85mph
2007 Noel 80mph
2005 Stan 80mph
1959 Judith 80mph
1954 Alice 80mph
1951 Item 80mph
1940 Hurricane8 80mph
1924 Hurricane11 80mph
1906 Hurricane11 80mph
1904 Hurricane4 80mph
1996 Marco 75mph
1987 Floyd 75mph
1913 Hurricane6 75mph
1996 Josephine 70mph
1988 Keith 70mph
1973 Gilda 70mph
1971 Laura 70mph
1961 Gerda 70mph
1953 Hazel 70mph
1944 TS14 70mph
1932 TS11 70mph
1916 TS15 70mph
2013 Karen 65mph
2003 Odette 65mph
1949 TS16 65mph
1931 TS11 65mph
1925 TS4 65mph
1989 Karen 60mph
1977 Frieda 60mph
1934 TS11 60mph
1933 TS20 60mph
2005 Alpha 50mph
2005 Gamma 50mph
1996 Kyle 50mph
1931 TS12 50mph
1922 TS5 50mph
1991 Fabian 45mph
1969 Jenny 45mph
1953 TS10 45mph
1943 TS10 45mph
1934 TS12 45mph
1931 TS10 45mph
1927 TS6 45mph
1927 TS7 45mph
1999 Katrina 40mph
1964 TS12 40mph
1926 TS9 40mph
1926 TS11 40mph

99 named storms from the Caribbean from October and later
64 became hurricanes
28 became major hurricanes
4 became cat 5 hurricanes

[boca]

Does anyone remember in June what the GFS model was doing for 3 weeks of the month. It had a system develop out of the Caribbean across Florida and up the coast.

[Dean4Storms]

00z run of ECM shows a 1008mb low moving northward in the Western Carib. at 216 hours. The ECM does not develop it thru 240 hrs but we all know the ECM isn't always good this far out with Cyclogenesis!

The pattern setup coming fits lowering pressures in the western Carib. Sea so we might have a player coming.

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone remember in June what the GFS model was doing for 3 weeks of the month. It had a system develop out of the Caribbean across Florida and up the coast.

The only thing different here is that the GFS isn't alone with tropical development of some sort. Several other models including the Euro to some extent show development trying to happen in the NW Caribbean in the next week or so.

[Ntxw]

Interesting that the GFS and other guidance that shows something is also forecasting very high shear (of course) across the Carib and Gulf. I'm wondering if it's trying to spin something with these cold fronts coming down and shooting it NE (perhaps extratropical or subtropical in nature). Lowering pressures isn't unusual with fronts dropping down and activity along them. Probably something elongated and strung out, if anything forms at all. Of course we're still talking 7-10 days away...

[tolakram]

I'm looking at GFS to 192 hours and I don't see anything. Past 192 hours the model is even more inaccurate so it's really not worth looking at IMO.

[ronjon]

Actually the low pressure gets going in the SW Caribbean by late next weekend according to the GFS. Then very slowly moves north-northwest and eventually drawn up into the SE US the middle of next week. Way out there but with Euro starting to move there and climo favoring this region, something to watch.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm looking at GFS to 192 hours and I don't see anything. Past 192 hours the model is even more inaccurate so it's really not worth looking at IMO.

Check out the SW Carib. Sea at 144 hours (Friday), GFS with Closed Low. This is the Low it goes on to develop and bring northward toward SE Gulf.


http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlsfc.php?run=2014100412&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=144

[Alyono]

every model, other than Model Uccelleni, has development occurring in the EPAC

[SFLcane]

low down in sw carribean at 150hrs if gfs is right...



Pretty formidable cane into SW florida.

[Yellow Evan]

every model, other than Model Uccelleni, has development occurring in the EPAC

NOGAPS doesn't, CMC has phantom storms out at sea, Euro is bad with genesis. It wouldn't shock me if the WCARIB systems gets switched to the EPAC tho.

[Fego]

.

[Alyono]

CMC and EC both have brief TCs in the EPAC that crash into Central America

[Yellow Evan]

CMC and EC both have brief TCs in the EPAC that crash into Central America

That's typical of what models in the EPAC do late season early on before they shift W.

[blp]

18z GFS has development now in 144hrs. The Navgem and FIM still on board.

Everyone is waiting on the Euro. Everybody is hesitant and cautious to buy into the GFS which is quite a contrast from years past where anything around 144hrs would have the board jumping. I am still skeptical myself.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS has development now in 144hrs. The Navgem and FIM still on board.

Everyone is waiting on the Euro. Everybody is hesitant and cautious to buy into the GFS which is quite a contrast from years past where anything around 144hrs would have the board jumping. I am still skeptical myself.

There's a few good reasons to be skeptical, the first obvious one is the phantoms this year. The second one is those models are developing something from convection from Central America so there is a risk instead they may be getting it wrong and instead it develops on the otherside (EPAC) of that little skinny Isthmus we call Panama. Third at the same time GFS is also predicting plenty of shear so it could just end up a slob mess. But even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes if he keeps trying. Maybe it will get it right this time.

[blp]

Well I don't know much about the GOES model but it can be added to the list with an agressive run.

[blp]

There's a few good reasons to be skeptical, the first obvious one is the phantoms this year. The second one is those models are developing something from convection from Central America so there is a risk instead they may be getting it wrong and instead it develops on the otherside (EPAC) of that little skinny Isthmus we call Panama. Third at the same time GFS is also predicting plenty of shear so it could just end up a slob mess. But even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes if he keeps trying. Maybe it will get it right this time.

Yea no kidding rough year for the GFS but there are few models in general agreement and the area and time of year are right. Also I noticied the Euro is flopping on whether to develop the Epac versus atlantic on the last two runs similar to what the GFS was doing a few days ago before it settled on the Atlantic. I bet the Euro comes back to the Atlantic on the next run.

[Alyono]

18z GFS has development now in 144hrs. The Navgem and FIM still on board.

Everyone is waiting on the Euro. Everybody is hesitant and cautious to buy into the GFS which is quite a contrast from years past where anything around 144hrs would have the board jumping. I am still skeptical myself.

the EC has consistently been indicating development

brings the TC into El Salvador and dissipates it.

EPAC development

[gatorcane]

Something to keep any eye on for sure but still look very dry across not just the Caribbean but the entire Atlantic basin with only moderately strong areas of convection seen this evening.

But this month really favors the SW/W Caribbean for development from a climatology standpoint. Also I recall that Levi Cowan once mentioned that when you have a deep trough over Eastern North America like we have now, it can sometimes enhance an upper-level high over the SW/W Caribbean with the NW flow which would mean a favorable upper-level environment for genesis.

I notice the GFS right now has support from the NAVGEM which has trended towards development if you look at today's runs starting with the 00Z and even shows development starting around 5 days from now in the 18Z run from what looks like a tropical wave traversing westward over the Central Caribbean sea at around 75W longitude.