Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

Currently there is a training effect of rain here in coastal and metro areas of Palm Beach, Broward, and northern parts of Miami/Dade counties. (Though as of now mostly in northern Palm Beach County where I'm located).

[TheStormExpert]

Well today's 00z and 06z GFS runs have completely backed off the idea of a stronger cold front coming through by mid-October, now they do a 180 flip a show a ridge in the East and Trough in the west.

Knowing that the GFS has done downright horrible in terms of this hurricane season should I be looking too much into it's mid/long range forecast for the U.S. in terms of cold fronts?

And what is the latest run of the Euro showing in terms of these fronts and cooler weather? I know it was the first to jump onto this weekend cool front. (Sick of the heat/humidity! Lol)

[NDG]

My guess is that temps could stay average to below average during the next couple of weeks by looking at the ensembles' NAO & PNA forecast which show the NAO to be negative and the PNA to go positive. That sypnotic pattern usually means cooler than average temps for the eastern US.

[TheStormExpert]

Talk about an early season strong trough!

[northjaxpro]

Latest projections on temperatures for tomorrow morning are for lower 40s across the coldest areas interior of the Panhandle i.e. Crestview and mid - upper 40s across the Big Bend region and upper 40s- low 50s the remainder of North Florida. Temps forecast to reach mid 50s -to near 60 across all the way down to near the I-4 corridor.

Indeed, a very impressive upper level trough for early October across the Eastern CONUS. I will enjoy the cool down for the next couple of days for sure!

[NDG]

The best part is that my A/C will get a nice break for a couple of days, but the forecasted return flow from the Atlantic as soon Monday means warm and more humid air will move back to my area for the rest of the week with temps back up close to 90 because of the very warm Atlantic waters for this time of the year.

[northjaxpro]

It is a crisp and beautiful Autumn morning at my locale. Currently 48 degrees here, just a refreshing break from the heat and humidity!

For those of us in the northern and central portions of the peninsula, enjoy this weather. Even the southern peninsula will feel less humidity today. Max temps only to reach the mid 70s here in the Jax area.

One more cool night in store across the area, then the return flow sets back in by mid week and back in the 80s.

*

[TheStormExpert]

Anymore cold fronts in sight or is this it for awhile?

[NDG]

Made it all the way down to 57 degrees to my house this morning in SW Seminole County, a couple of degrees cooler than I thought it was going to go down with some isolated low areas of NW Orange County getting down all the way to the low 50s, officially at the airport I believe we did not brake the record.

No more cold fronts for at least a week, both the GFS and Euro show the next trough to dig down more into the central parts of the US. Medium to long range sypnotic forecast still call for a +PNA, -AO & -NAO, so I do believe should be yet another cool down by at least the middle of the month.

[northjaxpro]

Yep, NDG, with the +PNA, -AO/-NAO pattern currently in place, expect another surge of cooler air to plunge southward into the Eastern CONUS within the next ten days.

Should see another significant cold front by October 15 or so head toward the peninsula.

[gatorcane]

Felt noticeably cooler here in Southern Florida also when I stepped outside this morning due to the lower dew points though it looks like this slight cool down will only last one day here as we are back to the mid 70s for lows tonight. Looks like we saw a low around 68F.

[asd123]

Yep, NDG, with the +PNA, -AO/-NAO pattern currently in place, expect another surge of cooler air to plunge southward into the Eastern CONUS within the next ten days.

Should see another significant cold front by October 15 or so head toward the peninsula.

Yeah, true that. The AO NAO are forecasted to be very negative. PNA positive. I checked the GFS the EURO and the GEM. None show significant cold to reflect the teleconnections. Do you know how long it takes for the weather in Florida to reflect the teleconnections? A couple of days? weeks? Also when is the GFS getting the so called upgrade, when the high resolution goes out to 10 days? They said September 2014 but it's now October 2014.

[gatorcane]

Well that didn't last long. My AC is back on.

[FireRat]

Been out and about all day working in these pleasant temps!

Low Sunday Morning was 65 here, went up to 81 with low humidity, felt great!
The weather definitely let us know it's October and that Summer is finally winding down. Sure we'll be back up to 88 over the next few days, looking forward to the next front!

[asd123]

Very negative ao and nao, positive PNA forecasted for around the 8th of October still stands, but I checked the models and none show any significantly cooler weather (or any cooler weather for that matter). From my perspective, a general blend of the models over the next 15 days would mean mid upper 80s as highs and upper 60s low 70s (low 70s more prevalent) for lows with moisture starting to creep back towards the weekend.


What is going on, why is the forecast not reflecting the teleconnections? How long does it take the weather in Florida to reflect the teleconnections?

[tropicwatch]

Very nice in the panhandle but did turn the AC on a few minutes ago. Mainly because I built up a sweat working outside. Will be able to turn it off around 3 and open the windows again. Looking forward to a beautiful day on the boat tomorrow.

[TheStormExpert]

No doubt the Rainy Season has ended here in Florida as a whole with now our second (and strongest) front passing through this AM and giving us drier air once again. I'd say for us here in Coastal Palm Beach County it ended on Sunday October 5th with the passage of the first front.

[NDG]

Well, one more week or so of near average to below average temps for FL before things look to warm up once again as the NAO & AO is forecasted to go positive and for the PNA to go negative, so Halloween may be on the warmer side of average.

[northjaxpro]

Got down to 53 degrees this morning at my locale. A beautiful stretch of autumn weather is in store for North Florida for the next several days. A cool High Pressure dome will be building north of the region during this period. This will give way to mainly dry and pleasant conditions with northeast wind flow and yield to daytime highs only in the mid-upper 70s and mins mainly in the 50s right into the weekend.

No rain in the forecast until Monday at the earliest as the return flow and moisture comes back to the area.

Also, it's still too early to know how TD 9 /possible tropical cyclone Hannah down into the NW Caribbean may evolve by early next week. The frontal system across extreme South Florida will potentially bring some heavy rain across the region, and the key element will be if the tropical entity merges with this front or remains a separate entity. That is the huge variable at this time.

We should know much more by this weekend how the situation will materialize in the NW Caribbean.

[asd123]

Check out 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF
GFS has been for the past couple of runs (skipping 18z run today) showing significant cold for the South.

Images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

GFS


ECMWF