WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

[JtSmarts]

Cool, Jonathan Oh used to be one of our local mets here in Columbia, SC.

[euro6208]

18W PHANFONE 141005 1200 31.3N 133.2E WPAC 90 956

Category 2 Phanfone...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 OCT 2014 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 31:21:31 N Lon : 133:15:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 960.1mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 31 km

Center Temp : +1.1C Cloud Region Temp : -60.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 123km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.6 degrees

[euro6208]

[RaijinWeather]

Rainfall in Tokyo prefecture from the extreme outerbands of Typhoon Phanfone. All the stations in Tokyo mainland have recorded over 100mm today(2014/10/05)

Tokyo islands
-----------------------
Miyakejima - 318mm
Miyake tsubota - 315mm
Oshima - 165mm
Niijima - 143 mm
Kozushima - 141mm
Oshima senzu - 133mm
Oshima kitanomiya - 110mm
Toshima - 91mm
Oshima sashikaji - 67mm

Tokyo Mainland
---------------------------
Setagaya - 176mm
Tokyo - 148mm
Fuchu - 135mm
Hachioji - 130mm
Edogawa rinkai - 126mm
Nerima - 124mm
Ome - 122mm
Ogochi - 123mm
Ozawa - 121mm
Haneda airport - 120mm

[euro6208]

3 U.S airmen feared drown after washing out to sea...

[supercane]

Unfortunately confirmed on Kadena's web site at http://www.kadena.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123427236:

10/5/2014 - KADENA AIR BASE, Japan -- One Airman is confirmed deceased and two more are missing after they were washed out to sea from the northwest coast of Okinawa at about 3:45 p.m. Oct. 5.

An Airman that was found by the Japanese Coast Guard and pulled from the sea was later pronounced dead at a local hospital.

HH-60s from Kadena Air Base and Japanese Coast Guard are continuing to search for the remaining two Airmen. Rough seas are complicating rescue efforts.

The names of the Airmen are being withheld for 24 hours after the notification of next of kin.

More information will be released as it becomes available.

As I posted earlier, max winds at Yakushima were N at 31.2 m/s ~ 60.6 kt (10-min), with max gusts at 43.7 ~84.9 kt at 1256 LST (~22UTC). Min pressure was 982.6mb. See http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... oupCode=64.

Glancing at amedas, max winds currently at Muroto-misaki on the southeast tip of Shikoku are ENE at 23.5 ms/ ~ 45.7 kt, with peak gust of 40.6 (ENE) ~ 78.9kt. Pressure was 984.7 mb. See http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... oupCode=56.

[RaijinWeather]

Rainfall in Shizuoka prefecture from outerbands of Typhoon Phanfone today(2014/10/05)

Amagisan - 260mm
Kagaina - 225mm
Takanesan - 214mm
Ikawa - 208mm
Umegashima - 206mm
Kawana honcho - 205mm
Yugashima - 183mm
Shimizu - 176mm
Shizuoka - 171mm
Koshikidaira -168mm
Fuji - 167mm
Shizuoka kuko - 162mm
Mishima - 161mm
Gotemba - 159mm
Ajiro- 157mm
Shiraito - 152mm
Kikugawa makinohara - 145mm
Mikura- 143mm
Iwata - 140mm
Kakegawa - 138mm
Hammatsu - 135mm
Tenryu - 135mm
Omaezaki - 130mm
Kuma - 112mm
Sakuma - 101mm
Matsuzaki - 97mm
Mikkabi - 96mm
Inatori - 88mm
Toi - 83mm
Irozaki - 68mm

[RaijinWeather]

Rainfall in Kanagawa prefecture from outerbands of Typhoon Phanfone today( 2014/10/05)

Hakone - 227mm
Odawara - 187mm
Ebina - 186mm
Hiratsuka - 173mm
Yokohama - 166mm
Hiyoshi - 163mm
Sagamihara chuo -151mm
Tanazawako - 147mm
Sagamiko - 136mm
Tsujido- 120mm
Miura - 64mm

[RaijinWeather]

Owase of Mie prefecture have received 190 mm in just 4 hrs starting from oct 5th 10 pm to oct 6th 2am

[supercane]

Latest peak winds I can find:
Shionomisaki, the southernmost point of Honshu, sustained winds recorded ESE at 16.1 m/s ~ 31.3 kt at 0200 JST = 17UTC, with peak gust of 39.0 (ESE) ~ 76.0 kt at 0312 (1812 UTC). Now winds down to NNE 4.4m/s as eye scrapes by. Min pressure is latest reading at 962.1mb. See http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... oupCode=48 for report.

JMA 18Z advisory:
WTPQ21 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1418 PHANFONE (1418)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 33.0N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 325NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 40.0N 151.7E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Local media reports that in addition to the 1 dead and 2 missing US airmen in Okinawa, there is a university student who is also missing while surfing in Kanagawa prefecture.

[supercane]

JTWC 21Z out:
WTPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 32.9N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.9N 135.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 36.4N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 39.7N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 33.8N 137.3E.
TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Latest peak winds I can find:
Shionomisaki, the southernmost point of Honshu, sustained winds recorded ESE at 16.1 m/s ~ 31.3 kt at 0200 JST = 17UTC, with peak gust of 39.0 (ESE) ~ 76.0 kt at 0312 (1812 UTC). Now winds down to NNE 4.4m/s as eye scrapes by. Min pressure is latest reading at 962.1mb. See http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... oupCode=48 for report.

JMA 18Z advisory:
WTPQ21 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1418 PHANFONE (1418)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 33.0N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 325NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 40.0N 151.7E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Local media reports that in addition to the 1 dead and 2 missing US airmen in Okinawa, there is a university student who is also missing while surfing in Kanagawa prefecture.

That suggests a pressure of 960mb as it passed by.

[Alyono]

the 3Z JTWC forecast does not even make physical sense. Not quite as bad as their forecast last year of 2 typhoons within 50 miles of each other, but still, really bad

They ahve the winds decreasing to 30 kts in 24 hours, with the system moving faster than 30 kts. Winds have to be > 30 kts solely due to the forward motion

[RaijinWeather]

Total Rainfall in Tokyo prefecture from Typhoon Phanfone.(2014/10/05 and 2014/10/06)

Tokyo islands
-----------------------
Miyakejima - 346mm (318 + 28)
Miyake tsubota - 329mm (315 + 14)
Oshima senzu - 267mm (133 + 134)
Oshima - 258mm (165 + 93)
Niijima - 196mm (143 + 53)
Oshima kitanomiya - 191mm (110 + 81)
Kozushima - 175mm (141 + 34)
Toshima - 154mm (91 + 63)
Oshima sashikaji - 137mm (67 + 70)

Tokyo Mainland
---------------------------
Setagaya - 312mm (176 + 136)
Tokyo - 272mm (148 + 124)
Fuchu - 266mm (135 + 131)
Haneda airport - 265mm (120 + 145)
Hachioji - 249mm (130 +119)
Edogawa rinkai - 238mm (126 + 112)
Nerima - 224mm (124 + 110)
Ome - 216mm (122 + 94)
Ogochi - 199mm (123 + 76)
Ozawa - 197mm (121 + 77)

[RaijinWeather]

Total Rainfall in Kanagawa prefecture from Typhoon Phanfone (2014/10/05 and 2014/10/06)

Ebina - 373mm (186 + 187)
Hakone - 362mm (227 + 135)
Hiratsuka - 355mm (173 + 182)
Yokohama - 353mm (166 + 187)
Hiyoshi - 343mm (163 +180)
Odawara - 325mm (187 + 138)
Sagamihara chuo -320mm (151 + 169)
Tanazawako - 257mm (147 + 110)
Tsujido- 254mm (120 + 134)
Sagamiko - 245mm (136 + 109)
Miura - 149mm (64 + 85)

[RaijinWeather]

Typhoon Phanfone made landfall around 9AM in Shizuoka prefecture packing winds gusting over 160kph. The max wind from the storm was recorded at landfall at 162kph. There has been wide spread reports of flooding and also a landslide in Shizuoka.

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 031
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 18W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 37.2N 142.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 40 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.2N 142.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 40.2N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 45 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 41.5N 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 38.0N 145.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 40
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GROSSLY ELONGATED AS EXTREMELY STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
NORTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS NOW FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HAS ASSUMED COLD-CORE LOW CHARACTERISTICS. TS 18W
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND DECAY AS AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

[RaijinWeather]

Total Rainfall in Shizuoka prefecture Typhoon Phanfone (2014/10/05 and 2014/10/06)

Amagisan - 489mm (260 + 229)
Kagaina - 431mm (225 + 206)
Shimizu - 427mm (176 + 251)
Takanesan - 414mm (214 + 200)
Yugashima - 387mm (183 + 204)
Fuji - 387mm (167 + 220)
Shizuoka - 364mm (171 + 193)
Ikawa - 350mm (208 + 142)
Kawana honcho - 347mm (205 + 142)
Shizuoka kuko - 325mm (162 + 163)
Kikugawa makinohara - 322mm (145 + 177)
Umegashima - 318mm (206 + 112)
Koshikidaira -313mm (168 + 145)
Mishima - 313mm (161 + 152)
Ajiro- 307mm (157 + 150)
Kakegawa - 305mm (138 + 167)
Shiraito - 297mm (152 + 145)
Iwata - 295mm (140 + 155)
Hammatsu - 281mm (135 + 146)
Mikura- 275mm (143 + 132)
Gotemba - 270mm (159 + 111)
Omaezaki - 261mm (130 + 131)
Tenryu - 259mm (135 + 124)
Kuma - 211mm (112 + 99)
Matsuzaki - 209mm (97 + 112)
Mikkabi - 208mm (97 + 112)
Inatori - 186mm (88 + 98)
Sakuma - 181mm (101 + 80)
Toi - 168mm (83 + 85)
Irozaki - 144mm (68 + 76)