Global model runs discussion

[asd123]

Regarding the cry wolf scenario, I am noticing in the forecast for Orlando that the timeframe for this tropical system hitting Florida is moving closer and closer towards the short range. In the past, the forecast would hover in the long range, never really creeping toward the shorter range. If this trend continues and makes it to the 0-192 and closer, then I would be genuinely concerned.

[LarryWx]

Regarding the cry wolf scenario, I am noticing in the forecast for Orlando that the timeframe for this tropical system hitting Florida is moving closer and closer towards the short range. In the past, the forecast would hover in the long range, never really creeping toward the shorter range. If this trend continues and makes it to the 0-192 and closer, then I would be genuinely concerned.

Yes, this is what I've stated. There has been zero time slippage since nine days ago when Luis posted that 384 hour map of that one GFS run. There have been some 20+ runs and 11 of the last 11 (yes, I've been counting by looking back at my posts following Luis' post) since then showing similar timing to the 10/10 genesis in the SW Caribbean. This is totally different from what the GFS did in May/June with that horrible false storm debacle (it kept slipping endlessly) and somewhat different from what the GFS did with the mid to late Sep. fake Yucatan to N Gulf coast storm.
Regardless, it is still mainly for entertainment for the time-being imo though that may change soon.

[weatherfanatic]

I think it is a sign that the GFS is not off its rocker this time being that 1. It continues to be consistent and is not meandering in long range and continues to basically hit FL on the same day and up the coast after than in the further range. 2. The CMC has no bomb of a storm, which if it did would make me skeptical. The Euro always is the last to come in (well not always but alot). Its basically a wait and see. In terms of crying wolf, its possible, but IMO its less likely than the May debacle that kept going further and further out. Maybe even today or tomorrow NHC might put up a yellow spot down there. Is there much going on down there yet that would suggest convection etc?

[asd123]

Now all we have to wait is for other models to jump on, and then concern can increase.

[RL3AO]

Lots of love from the GFS and its ensembles. I'm not too concerned yet. Looks like it will be the wave north of Colombia that the models are interacting with near Panama.

[weatherfanatic]

I agree asd, give it some time if they do not come on board or the timeframe gets too close with no notation from NHC or signs of development then we know yet again the GFS skunked us. But I feel less inclined to say this this time. It was only two years ago something very similar was brewing but a little later in the month that brought alot of trouble, we all know what i am talking about.

[LarryWx]

With the now running 12Z GFS, that now makes a whopping 12 GFS runs in a row doing about the same thing: SW Caribbean genesis ~10/8-10 followed by NNW movement to the NW Caribbean (just E of the Yucatan) followed by a NNE turn into FL. This run has ~ a cat. 1 H hit on the FL Big Bend on 10/16 (~1 day later than recent runs). This run then has a very unusual loop back down to SE FL fwiw (not much since it is the only of the 21 runs I've followed doing that loop and it is very unusual per climo) before resuming a NE track out to sea.

[weatherfanatic]

Okayyy, that was one really strange GFS run, anyone have a clue as to why it changed so drastically and it dropped way back in time, not a good thing if you want to believe this may happen.

[LarryWx]

Okayyy, that was one really strange GFS run, anyone have a clue as to why it changed so drastically and it dropped way back in time, not a good thing if you want to believe this may happen.

As I posted, it is still doing the SW Caribbean to W FL hit with similar timing (12 in a row) though the hit on FL is one day later this run (10/16) vs. very recent runs. Nevertheless, many of the older runs' hit on FL was actually on 10/16 rate than 10/15. So, that and the fact that it shows development in the same timeframe tells me that the GFS is still not exhibiting forecasting time-slippage. OTOH, that crazy loop after landfall looks very suspect to me vs. prior GFS runs and history.

[TheStormExpert]

Okayyy, that was one really strange GFS run, anyone have a clue as to why it changed so drastically and it dropped way back in time, not a good thing if you want to believe this may happen.

As I posted, it is still doing the SW Caribbean to W FL hit with similar timing (12 in a row) though the hit on FL is one day later this run (10/16) vs. very recent runs. Nevertheless, many of the older runs' hit on FL was actually on 10/16 rate than 10/15. So, that and the fact that it shows development in the same timeframe tells me that the GFs is still not exhibiting forecasting time-slippage. OTOH, that crazy loop after landfall looks very suspect to me.

24hrs. is very little difference, it's always been showing either a hit on the 15th or 16th.

[weatherfanatic]

Right Larry! Well lets just hope the 18z doesn't do any more time change other than staying the same. And goes back to a FL and EC run. Skeptical, but not skeptical at the same time lol, as for the loop never seen anything like that, shows a high pushing it down it mises the trough, unlike all the other runs where it interacts with the front and trough.

[blp]

The 12z CMC is quite the joke. Four systems in Atlantic.

[blp]

12z Navgem over C. America and dissipates. Oh boy here we go again let's see of this starts a new trend.

[weatherfanatic]

The CMC is not even a player for me, thats just rediculous and when I saw it I was just appalled at how badly it does with spinning everything up. NAVGEM did change, will see at 18z I guess. Maybe just a momentary hiccup or maybe yet another foul by GFS.

[ronjon]

Genesis occurs in 96 hrs on the latest 12 GFS. We won't have to wait long to see if the model is out to lunch.

[weatherfanatic]

It is 96 hrs (and other recent runs within 5 days), which has me suspect becaus NHC has nothing in the 5 day graphic, they must feel its nothing to worry about. Lets see if anything happens at 2pm. Hmmmm, i doubt it.

[Yellow Evan]

Last few GFS tuns are dangerously close to Central America. Any delay and this thing enters the EPAC.

This reminds me of October 2012 when the GFS was bringing the timeframe down of a major hurricane off the W coast of MX. However, the ECMWF never joined the ship, and the hurricane never happened.

[blp]

Genesis occurs in 96 hrs on the latest 12 GFS. We won't have to wait long to see if the model is out to lunch.

Good point we are getting to the point with the GFS where until we actually see something developing then we can look at the model run for guidance.

[TheStormExpert]

Genesis occurs in 96 hrs on the latest 12 GFS. We won't have to wait long to see if the model is out to lunch.

Good point we are getting to the point with the GFS where until we actually see something developing then we can look at the model run for guidance.

I know this is probably way pointless to think about at this point, but I've noticed in the past two runs that it has trended towards a Big Bend of FL hit as opposed to a SW FL hit it was showing through last nights 00z run.

[LarryWx]

Last few GFS tuns are dangerously close to Central America. Any delay and this thing enters the EPAC.

This reminds me of October 2012 when the GFS was bringing the timeframe down of a major hurricane off the W coast of MX. However, the ECMWF never joined the ship, and the hurricane never happened.

Yep, the GFS was beyond horrible in Oct. '12 in the EPAC as it had a several day long streak of W MX hits while the Euro was excellent with this phantom E PAC hurricane (it never had a 'cane hitting MX as you stated). Also, this was during the forecasting lead up to Sandy. Whereas the Euro did well with Sandy well out in time (one week+), the GFS wasn't as it didn't have it getting that close to the U.S. til much later runs vs. the Euro. Once it finally had Sandy threaten the US, it dropped its MX phantom.