Global model runs discussion

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gatorcane
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#7801 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 05, 2014 8:54 pm

18Z FIM-9 is the strongest run I have seen yet, 168 hours below moving NW:

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#7802 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 05, 2014 10:08 pm

all FIM runs based off of Model Uccelleni

I want to see either the Canadian or EC actually show devleopment in the CARIBBEAN before I think this has anything more than a 10% chance of occurring.

When we had Ida form in 2009, ALL models showed development for several days prior to genesis
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#7803 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 05, 2014 10:10 pm

where we do seem to have some model agreement is for development northeast of the Leeward Islands
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7804 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 05, 2014 10:29 pm

An interesting thing to note is that a few days ago the GFS was showing development (in the long range) in the same place/timeframe that the Euro is currently showing development.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7805 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:00 pm

The 0zGFS now starts cyclogenesis at 90hrs which brings cyclogenesis 6 hrs closer in the Caribbean but while from different reasoning the GFS now has modest support from the Euro, lets see what the Euro shows in its 0z runs
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7806 Postby blp » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:19 pm

Add the HWRF to the Atlantic Side Model Camp:

Here is the 18z run from Simon.

Image

EDIT: The 12z run showed an EPAC to Atlantic cross so a change.
Last edited by blp on Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7807 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:36 pm

00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida :roll:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7808 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:38 pm

SFLcane wrote:00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida :roll:


Can you post a graphic of this?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7809 Postby blp » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida :roll:


I have not seen it out that far. What millibars?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7810 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:43 pm

SFLcane wrote:00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida :roll:


must have seen an old model run as this is West of Florida at that lattitude on the 0zGFS

I was wrong, but how did you get the 300hr+ of the GFS when I only had it to 192 on Levi Cowans site
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7811 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:45 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
SFLcane wrote:00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida :roll:


must have seen an old model run as this is West of Florida at that lattitude on the 0zGFS


Nope :)

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7812 Postby blp » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:49 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
SFLcane wrote:00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida :roll:


must have seen an old model run as this is West of Florida at that lattitude on the 0zGFS


Nope :)

[]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014100600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_41.png[/img]


That is the third run it does something like that, what the heck is going on. Also, it gets stronger as moves SE. Got to disregard that part of the model run.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7813 Postby boca » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:50 pm

What is supposed to cause the genisis of this storm because its clear down there right now?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7814 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:51 pm

Lol...that's enough for me tonight.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7815 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:51 pm

boca wrote:What is supposed to cause the genisis of this storm because its clear down there right now?


probably some kind of Kelvin Wave
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7816 Postby boca » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:53 pm

No offense to any posters but this model even if its in the short range is on crack.I don't see how this low will form,unless it comes off of Columbia.
Last edited by boca on Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7817 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:58 pm

boca wrote:No offense to any posters but this model even if its in the short range is on crack.I don't see how this low will form.


But you can go from clear to hurricane in 3 to 5 days as was the case with Sandy, but that ESE movement in the long range seems really silly especially since there really is no precident of such a thing happening in October that I know of


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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7818 Postby boca » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:01 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
boca wrote:No offense to any posters but this model even if its in the short range is on crack.I don't see how this low will form.


But you can go from clear to hurricane in 3 to 5 days as was the case with Sandy, but that ESE movement in the long range seems really silly especially since there really is no precident of such a thing happening in October that I know of


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I agree if their was a cold front moving across South Florida at the same time the storm were approaching the Keys.I just think the GFS needs some major fine tuning.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7819 Postby blp » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:02 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
boca wrote:No offense to any posters but this model even if its in the short range is on crack.I don't see how this low will form.


But you can go from clear to hurricane in 3 to 5 days as was the case with Sandy, but that ESE movement in the long range seems really silly especially since there really is no precident of such a thing happening in October that I know of


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And it is not a fluke run because it has done it now three runs in a row. Quite odd.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7820 Postby boca » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:05 am

Well its within 90 hours which would be Thursday and I was staring at the sat loop and their is popcorn convection down there just north of Panama.
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