
Global model runs discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
An interesting thing to note is that a few days ago the GFS was showing development (in the long range) in the same place/timeframe that the Euro is currently showing development.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
The 0zGFS now starts cyclogenesis at 90hrs which brings cyclogenesis 6 hrs closer in the Caribbean but while from different reasoning the GFS now has modest support from the Euro, lets see what the Euro shows in its 0z runs
0 likes
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Add the HWRF to the Atlantic Side Model Camp:
Here is the 18z run from Simon.

EDIT: The 12z run showed an EPAC to Atlantic cross so a change.
Here is the 18z run from Simon.

EDIT: The 12z run showed an EPAC to Atlantic cross so a change.
Last edited by blp on Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida 

0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
SFLcane wrote:00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida
Can you post a graphic of this?
Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE
0 likes
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
SFLcane wrote:00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida
I have not seen it out that far. What millibars?
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
SFLcane wrote:00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida
must have seen an old model run as this is West of Florida at that lattitude on the 0zGFS
I was wrong, but how did you get the 300hr+ of the GFS when I only had it to 192 on Levi Cowans site
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Hurricaneman wrote:SFLcane wrote:00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida
must have seen an old model run as this is West of Florida at that lattitude on the 0zGFS
Nope


0 likes
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:SFLcane wrote:00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida
must have seen an old model run as this is West of Florida at that lattitude on the 0zGFS
Nope![]()
[]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014100600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_41.png[/img]
That is the third run it does something like that, what the heck is going on. Also, it gets stronger as moves SE. Got to disregard that part of the model run.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
What is supposed to cause the genisis of this storm because its clear down there right now?
0 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
boca wrote:What is supposed to cause the genisis of this storm because its clear down there right now?
probably some kind of Kelvin Wave
0 likes
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
No offense to any posters but this model even if its in the short range is on crack.I don't see how this low will form,unless it comes off of Columbia.
Last edited by boca on Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
boca wrote:No offense to any posters but this model even if its in the short range is on crack.I don't see how this low will form.
But you can go from clear to hurricane in 3 to 5 days as was the case with Sandy, but that ESE movement in the long range seems really silly especially since there really is no precident of such a thing happening in October that I know of
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Hurricaneman wrote:boca wrote:No offense to any posters but this model even if its in the short range is on crack.I don't see how this low will form.
But you can go from clear to hurricane in 3 to 5 days as was the case with Sandy, but that ESE movement in the long range seems really silly especially since there really is no precident of such a thing happening in October that I know of
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
I agree if their was a cold front moving across South Florida at the same time the storm were approaching the Keys.I just think the GFS needs some major fine tuning.
0 likes
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Hurricaneman wrote:boca wrote:No offense to any posters but this model even if its in the short range is on crack.I don't see how this low will form.
But you can go from clear to hurricane in 3 to 5 days as was the case with Sandy, but that ESE movement in the long range seems really silly especially since there really is no precident of such a thing happening in October that I know of
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
And it is not a fluke run because it has done it now three runs in a row. Quite odd.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Well its within 90 hours which would be Thursday and I was staring at the sat loop and their is popcorn convection down there just north of Panama.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests