Global model runs discussion

blp · #7821 Postby **blp** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:05 am

CMC now on board though weak because it takes it inland. Also keeps the EPAC but no surprise there.

Hurricaneman · #7822 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:05 am

blp wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
boca wrote:No offense to any posters but this model even if its in the short range is on crack.I don't see how this low will form.

But you can go from clear to hurricane in 3 to 5 days as was the case with Sandy, but that ESE movement in the long range seems really silly especially since there really is no precident of such a thing happening in October that I know of

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

And it is not a fluke run because it has done it now three runs in a row. Quite odd.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that maybe its overdoing the trough and the trough might be more like the Euro depiction and hence make any system move more NE rather than ESE like the GFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

boca · #7823 Postby **boca** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:08 am

Even if a system forms down there what would pull it north, the trough is suppossed to lift out which caused are brief cooldown here in Florida.

#7824 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:09 am

Well, as mentioned, the 0Z Crazy Uncle (CU) is now adding some support. I'm all in now.

Seriously, now 14 GFS runs in a row with SW Caribbean genesis by 10/10! I'm still wondering if the Euro will ever show solid support.

blp · #7825 Postby **blp** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:09 am

boca wrote:Even if a system forms down there what would pull it north, the trough is suppossed to lift out which caused are brief cooldown here in Florida.

Another major trough is coming in the 200-240hr timeframe. Both the Euro and GFS agree on that.

boca · #7826 Postby **boca** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:10 am

blp wrote:
boca wrote:Even if a system forms down there what would pull it north, the trough is suppossed to lift out which caused are brief cooldown here in Florida.

Another major trough is coming in the 200-240hr timeframe. Both the Euro and GFS agree on that.

Thx for the info.

blp · #7827 Postby **blp** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:15 am

Recap:

Atlantic Side Development:
GFS, HWRF, NAVGEM, CMC, GOES-5, NAM, FIM

EPAC Side Development:
Euro (12z), CMC

UKMET -- nothing yet.

#7828 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:52 am

for what it is worth, NHC is now indicating possible development

In the EPAC

As I have stated numerous times, any development is almost certain to occur in the EPAC

#7829 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 4:19 am

boca wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
boca wrote:No offense to any posters but this model even if its in the short range is on crack.I don't see how this low will form.

But you can go from clear to hurricane in 3 to 5 days as was the case with Sandy, but that ESE movement in the long range seems really silly especially since there really is no precident of such a thing happening in October that I know of

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I agree if their was a cold front moving across South Florida at the same time the storm were approaching the Keys.I just think the GFS needs some major fine tuning.

fine tuning is for something thats working..gfs needs an overhaul, remodel, demolition, start over, back to the drawing board :roll:

#7830 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 4:26 am

Alyono wrote:all FIM runs based off of Model Uccelleni

I want to see either the Canadian or EC actually show devleopment in the CARIBBEAN before I think this has anything more than a 10% chance of occurring.

When we had Ida form in 2009, ALL models showed development for several days prior to genesis

that is the best advice we have seen in weeks..good work

folks, you have been warned many times, do not look at the GFS on its own, if it doesnt have support from the euro then its for entertainment purposes...particularly if you are inthe keys and south florida, this model even before the upgrade has a history of hitting this area with intense hurricanes and as you know we havent been hit with an intense hurricane in a very long time...just beware when viewing gfs runs beyond 72 hours

ronjon · #7831 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:42 am

LarryWx wrote:Well, as mentioned, the 0Z Crazy Uncle (CU) is now adding some support. I'm all in now.

Seriously, now 14 GFS runs in a row with SW Caribbean genesis by 10/10! I'm still wondering if the Euro will ever show solid support.

Make that 15 runs in a row with the 06z GFS.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014100606/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

#7832 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:50 am

ronjon wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Well, as mentioned, the 0Z Crazy Uncle (CU) is now adding some support. I'm all in now.

Seriously, now 14 GFS runs in a row with SW Caribbean genesis by 10/10! I'm still wondering if the Euro will ever show solid support.

Make that 15 runs in a row with the 06z GFS.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014100606/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

well its consistent, lets see if its consistently good or consistently bad...one of these times it has to hit paydirt, :?:

#7833 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:33 am

06z GFS... TS Landfall SW FL

FIM... TS Landfall SW FL

06z NAVGEM... TS Landfall In Belize

CMC... Shows Weak Low In SW Caribbean Just N Of Honduras in 180 Hrs

#7834 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 6:57 am

A good bit of model support with the GFS in developing a low down there and I'd go with the GFS in taking it northward and eventually across Florida at this point. It has kept a general solution of landfall across western peninsula Florida for nearly two weeks now and with the longwave troughing across the CONUS it makes sense.

weatherfanatic · #7835 Postby **weatherfanatic** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:07 am

I do not understand the sudden shift with the GFS I am in NY and now its not coming up the coast? The conditions favor coastals that week and the track GFS has had for 3 runs now seems suspect but its not just one run now. Also NHC has no 5 day area and its well within 5 days so thats also making me wonder if this will happen at all.

blp · #7836 Postby **blp** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:09 am

As Met Alyono mentioned, NHC going with the Euro. Can't blame them. The GFS has to earn its stripes again. It could do it if it pulls this off. We will see.

#7837 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:12 am

Maybe a dozen Euro Enesemble members develop a low but lose it right away. Most of them were in the EPac.

sunnyday · #7838 Postby **sunnyday** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:12 am

When is the ts supposed to his SW FL? Thank you for the info. 8-)

#7839 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:14 am

sunnyday wrote:When is the ts supposed to his SW FL? Thank you for the info.

Its very unlikely <5% at this time, that any tropical system from this part of the Caribbean will impact Florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

boca · #7840 Postby **boca** » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:15 am

I'll just wait and see on this one and I don't trust the GFS even though its in the short range. I'll give the model until Thursday,but it could drop it sooner.

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