Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

12z EC at 144 hours.

[wxman57]

12Z EC through 174 hrs has nothing in the western Caribbean. Development of a weak TS in the East Pac along the coast of Mexico, though.

[hurricanetrack]

The one certainty: in five to seven days, we will know with 100% accuracy which model was correct. Until then, this is maddening. There's hardly a cloud in the sky in the southeast Pacific yet they are gathering right where the GFS is showing all of this coming together. The TCFP parameters also indicate development in the SW Caribbean, not so much in the east Pac. Very intriguing to say the least.

[wxman57]

I plotted the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF 500mb heights on atop the other, and it's clear they're in two different worlds. By the middle of next week, the Euro has a DEEP trof extending south through the western Gulf with a moderate cold front extending from the mid Gulf Coast to the western Yucatan. At the same time, the GFS has a very shallow trof about 1000 miles east of the EC's trof and no front in the Gulf. Odds are, the GFS is out to lunch.

[floridasun78]

i hope gfs wrong i dont want any thing for oct 15 my birthday other thing if gfs wrong that need to be redo because gfs been wrong alot doing this hurr season data that getting been wrong

[crownweather]

FWIW, the 12Z runs of the GFDL and HWRF that were run on Simon. Notice the outer nest maps of the western Caribbean. Seems the Euro is the lone model showing East Pacific development only. If we were going to go by the number of models showing development in the Caribbean versus development in the east Pacific, the Caribbean would actually "win"; but, honestly, I have no clue which scenario to go with (Carib development or east Pacific development).

GFDL:


HWRF:

[gatorcane]

Even the NAVGEM is back to the Western Caribbean solution. More models develop this in the Caribbean than EPAC now. The ECMWF is good but it seems the NHC might be placing all their weight into the ECMWF and UKMET models at this point.

[weatherfanatic]

For those of you who do not use it as its really only available on pay sites I believe tropical genesis happens on the chinese model too. So we have 4 models that show it versus one, the Euro on its own. So odds are stacked against this one way or the other and its totally a mess. The Euro alos lost the east coast storm near Philly completely at 240 hrs, not even a trace of it being there anymore. Amazing.

[crownweather]

For those of you who do not use it as its really only available on pay sites I believe tropical genesis happens on the chinese model too. So we have 4 models that show it versus one, the Euro on its own. So odds are stacked against this one way or the other and its totally a mess. The Euro alos lost the east coast storm near Philly completely at 240 hrs, not even a trace of it being there anymore. Amazing.

Regarding the 500 millibar chart from the European model at 00Z versus 12Z - For the 00Z run at 240 hrs, the Euro placed a closed upper air low over Philly. Now at 12Z, that 500 mb low has shifted northwestward significantly to near southern Wisconsin, a difference of 400-500 miles.

Found that interesting and a bit suspect making me wonder if the European model may not be so consistent right now with the upper air features which ends up having significant implications on any surface features, including wind shear forecasts and tropical cyclone development.

[TheStormExpert]

I plotted the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF 500mb heights on atop the other, and it's clear they're in two different worlds. By the middle of next week, the Euro has a DEEP trof extending south through the western Gulf with a moderate cold front extending from the mid Gulf Coast to the western Yucatan. At the same time, the GFS has a very shallow trof about 1000 miles east of the EC's trof and no front in the Gulf. Odds are, the GFS is out to lunch.

The GFS was the first to latch onto this weekends strong Eaastern U.S. trough, just keep that in mind.

[PTrackerLA]

Just a side note for northern gulf coast weather, the 12z GFS shows absolutely no true cool fronts/Canadian airmasses to affect our area for the next 16 days. Sure seems like the Gulf and especially eastern gulf could be open for business after the rather strong cold front late last week. GFS is even showing a high temp in the 90's here on 10/17. Something to think about as it looks like the pattern is much more like early September than fall the next few weeks.

[blp]

Here is the 12Z UKMET which has the low in the EPAC at 36hrs so the Euro is not alone yet. At least it shows it now which it did not at the 00z.

[wxman57]

Just a side note for northern gulf coast weather, the 12z GFS shows absolutely no true cool fronts/Canadian airmasses to affect our area for the next 16 days. Sure seems like the Gulf and especially eastern gulf could be open for business after the rather strong cold front late last week. GFS is even showing a high temp in the 90's here on 10/17. Something to think about as it looks like the pattern is much more like early September than fall the next few weeks.

And the 12Z Euro is quite different, with a moderate to strong cold front reaching the southern Gulf in 8-9 days. GFS washes out the upper trof and accelerates it east while the Euro slows it down and deepens it quite a bit. The two models are worlds apart by 7 days as far as the 500mb pattern.

[beoumont]

i hope gfs wrong i dont want any thing for oct 15 my birthday other thing if gfs wrong that need to be redo because gfs been wrong alot doing this hurr season data that getting been wrong

Bad weather, in some cultures, is good luck when it occurs on the day of a personal "event".

Personally, I had a choice on August 17th, 1969. I was in Tallahassee, and Cat 5 Hurricane Camille was heading for the Mississippi Coast. Either go to experience the landfall (and possibly die) or head to Miami where my wedding was scheduled to occur.

I flipped a coin and went to Miami; but as I got married Camille made landfall.. Whether that was good luck or bad luck, I still am not sure.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

i hope gfs wrong i dont want any thing for oct 15 my birthday other thing if gfs wrong that need to be redo because gfs been wrong alot doing this hurr season data that getting been wrong

Bad weather, in some cultures, is good luck when it occurs on the day of a personal "event".

Personally, I had a choice on August 17th, 1969. I was in Tallahassee, and Cat 5 Hurricane Camille was heading for the Mississippi Coast. Either go to experience the landfall (and possibly die) or head to Miami where my wedding was scheduled to occur.

I flipped a coin and went to Miami; but as I got married Camille made landfall.. Whether that was good luck or bad luck, I still am not sure.

To funny I needed a laugh today.

[blp]

HPC now showing the low in the NW. Carribean in 7 Days.

[LarryWx]

For the record: Today's 12Z GFS makes it 16 GFS runs in a row with SW Caribbean genesis by 10/10 and subsequent general northward move to GoM! There have been at least 25 GFS runs with similar genesis timing since 9/26. In other words, the GFS timing on genesis hasn't slipped over the last 10 days. However, the Euro continues to show hardly any support! What a battle we have!

Last four GFS runs

10/5 18Z : Hits FL Big Bend late 10/15 as TS, then to Brunswick, then out to sea, and then clockwise loop to N. Caribbean

10/6 0Z: Gets to NE GoM 10/16, then turns SE to hit S tip of FL early 10/18 as 984 mb 'cane, then into Atlantic, and then left hook

10/6 6Z: Hits SW FL 10/15 as TS, then to Melbourne, and then out to sea

10/6 12Z: Gets to N/C GoM 10/16, then turns W and hits C. TX coast as 985 mb 'cane 10/20

[ronjon]

12z EC at 144 hours.

Interesting that ECM does show vorticity off the Nic Coast in addition to the pac system.

[Dean4Storms]

Just a side note for northern gulf coast weather, the 12z GFS shows absolutely no true cool fronts/Canadian airmasses to affect our area for the next 16 days. Sure seems like the Gulf and especially eastern gulf could be open for business after the rather strong cold front late last week. GFS is even showing a high temp in the 90's here on 10/17. Something to think about as it looks like the pattern is much more like early September than fall the next few weeks.

And the 12Z Euro is quite different, with a moderate to strong cold front reaching the southern Gulf in 8-9 days. GFS washes out the upper trof and accelerates it east while the Euro slows it down and deepens it quite a bit. The two models are worlds apart by 7 days as far as the 500mb pattern.

Chances are they are both to the extreme and the actual will lie in the middle.

[sunnyday]

Thank you to those who answered my question this morning!