WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

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RaijinWeather
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#161 Postby RaijinWeather » Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:50 pm

Perfect Eye has formed

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMIR.JPG
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euro6208

Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#162 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:43 pm

2014OCT07 033200 6.3 934.7 122.2 6.3 6.7 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 10.21 -76.50 EYE 25 IR 65.2 17.17 -135.64 COMBO MTSAT2 22.8

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 OCT 2014 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 17:17:24 N Lon : 135:38:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 936.8mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.3 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.9 degrees
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#163 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:21 am

It has already found its sweet spot... convection is now getting colder while the eye keeps getting warmer and... D-Max is still ahead of it.
IMO, VongFong has a legitimate chance at Cat 5.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#164 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:33 am

2014OCT07 080100 6.9 903.3 +2.1 137.4 6.9 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.85 -75.84 EYE 27 IR 86.4 17.30 -134.83 COMBO MTSAT2 23.4
2014OCT07 083200 7.0 900.1 +2.1 140.0 7.0 7.1 7.4 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 17.38 -78.49 EYE 28 IR 86.4 17.41 -134.74 COMBO MTSAT2 23.5
2014OCT07 090100 7.0 900.1 +2.1 140.0 7.0 7.1 7.5 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 15.24 -79.32 EYE 29 IR 86.4 17.42 -134.65 COMBO MTSAT2 23.6
2014OCT07 093200 7.0 900.1 +2.1 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.63 -76.74 EYE 28 IR 86.4 17.43 -134.46 COMBO MTSAT2 23.7

T number continues to rise..
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#165 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:47 am

Different from Typhoon Phanfone,this one may affect directly Okinawa as it has continued to move mainly west more than what Phanfone did at the 134E longitude.
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#166 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:51 am

TBH I am not surprised to have this a super typhoon next warning... This sudden intensification is impressive.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#167 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:01 am

Perfect.

Image
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#168 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:17 am

Eye temperature now at 18 degrees, will it reach 20??
what a monster!
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#169 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:40 am

The microwave pass I posted earlier was very revealing that it was about to bomb out. Now the conventional satellite imagery has caught up. The current microwave passes are incredibly impressive. This is definitely the strongest TC since Haiyan in my opinion. It could have a run at T 8.0 in raw T numbers in the next couple of hours. Not sure if it will be able to sustain it or not. Current raw ADT numbers are coming in at T 7.7 from SSD.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#170 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:51 am

no way this is only 120 knots.
IMO, should be at least 145 knots by now.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#171 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:03 am

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 1h
Based solely on satellite intensity estimates, Typhoon #Vongfong appears to be strongest storm globally since Haiyan
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#172 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:09 am

Hey folks,12z Best Track upgrades to SuperTyphoon at 130kts.


19W VONGFONG 141007 1200 17.5N 134.2E WPAC 130 926
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#173 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:10 am

cycloneye wrote:Hey folks,12z Best Track upgrades to SuperTyphoon at 130kts.


19W VONGFONG 141007 1200 17.5N 134.2E WPAC 130 926


Oh, come on.. that's too conservative
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#174 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:29 am

ADT a solid 7.4 which equals to 152 knots.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#175 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:32 am

Very impressive dark grey fully encircles the eye on AVN imagery. Almost looks like Haiyan.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#176 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:33 am

They updated the 12z Best Track now up to 135kts. Still a tad conservative.

19W VONGFONG 141007 1200 17.4N 134.1E WPAC 135 922
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#177 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:37 am

cycloneye wrote:They updated the 12z Best Track now up to 135kts. Still a tad conservative.

19W VONGFONG 141007 1200 17.4N 134.1E WPAC 135 922


This is at least 150 knots now based on eye continuing to warm and convection is getting stronger.

Maxed out at 7.7 earlier, highest since haiyan.
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#178 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:40 am

How does the JTWC assumes this is not currently a Cat.5?

Image
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euro6208

Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#179 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 7:47 am

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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#180 Postby RaijinWeather » Tue Oct 07, 2014 8:06 am

OMG …What a jaw dropping intensification by Typhoon Vongfong with central pressure of 908mb and vmax of 146knts and still lot of intensification possible and can beat or atleast come close to Haiyan

No doubt it is the Haiyan of 2014. Luckily Japanese mainland will escape from this monster. But Okinawa in great danger

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/re...
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