Area of Disturbed Weather Near Panama

[TheStormExpert]

Finally they mention it!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure has developed over the extreme southwestern
Caribbean Sea and is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. The low is expected to drift westward near or
over Central America during the next few days, and development is
likely to be limited by its proximity to land. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are possible over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
*Formation change through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Terry

[crownweather]

lol. Just as most of the models jump off the wagon with development.

[weatherfanatic]

Yeah really, however that piece coming from the east is interesting and supported by other models a bit more than this carribbean one was. Its still a area to watch though since NHC is.

[ronjon]

I dunno - a low pressure has formed in the SW caribbean - just as GFS has advertised. Now will it move inland or straddle the coast?

[ronjon]

Fairly large system taking shape in the SW caribbean - broad cyclonic turning evident.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_CARIBWIDE/anim8vis.html

[weatherfanatic]

If the GFS gets this right being that it is so far off from the Euro at 500mb, then the GFS is going to become everyones new friend. I do see the vorticity that was not there this morning.

[blp]

If the GFS gets this right being that it is so far off from the Euro at 500mb, then the GFS is going to become everyones new friend. I do see the vorticity that was not there this morning.

Yes the vorticity is defintely on the Carribean side and improving at the three main levels ATM. I am still not convinced this is settled as being an EPAC system. The Euro does not have the best track record on cyclogensis. The Euro really excels on getting the large scale patterns right and also on track but once you have an established COC IMO.

This looks to be a moonson gyre pattern that is difficult to forecast so I still expect some surprises.

[ronjon]

Looks like a large upper level anti-cyclone has formed overtop the disturbance - shear has really dropped off. Only question in my mind is will it stay offshore or move inland into CA?

[ronjon]

So far, the GFS has nailed this system and the ECMs out to lunch, lol! All the convection and vorticity is on the caribbean side.

VIS SAT

[LarryWx]

So far, the GFS has nailed this system and the ECMs out to lunch, lol! All the convection and vorticity is on the caribbean side.

ronjon,
This is an interesting model battle for sure! One thing I was wondering. In all fairness to the Euro, doesn't it (and hasn't it had) the energy/moisture get to the E PAc only after a couple of days from now as opposed to today? I mean even it has convection today in the SW Caribbean.

[blp]

So far, the GFS has nailed this system and the ECMs out to lunch, lol! All the convection and vorticity is on the caribbean side.

VIS SAT

In addition, that trough over the Yucatan should provide a nice outlflow channel. It is in a very good spot right now.

[gatorcane]

Lower-level convergence on the increase:

[Hammy]

I'm not yet convinced that this will develop, but I've noticed that the system the models are showing in the Pacific seems to already be taking shape, which tells me that they were showing a separate system to this. It's also possible that the Euro could simply not be showing it yet because development is still 5+ days away (and it hasn't done too well with Atlantic systems recently in the 5-8 day time frame.

[LarryWx]

Lol, MU now has gone to the Euro with a full-fledged TC in the eastern Pacific rather than the SW Caribbean. Is the MU now officially giving in for good and does that mean we can give up on the SW Caribean? Opinions?

[gatorcane]

Sat imagery is showing that the shear has really backed off. If the low can stay over water, we may see some development.

[NDG]

It might had looked pretty on satellite earlier today but at the surface is not so pretty and nothing being to getting organized, now the GFS has become very inconsistent so how much more proof do you need that nothing will come out of this, at least in the Caribbean side

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Caribbean Sea and is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. The low is expected to drift westward near or
over Central America during the next few days, and development is
likely to be limited by its proximity to land. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are possible over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
*Formation change through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[gatorcane]

18Z FIM is bullish again:

[boca]

The system moved into Central America it went poof.

[floridasun78]

The system moved into Central America it went poof.

not want into central America i still see light spin north of Panama if you closely but dont have much storm as early today