Area NE of the Leeward Islands (Is Invest 99L)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development as a tropical or subtropical cyclone through the
weekend while the surface low moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown

[Hurricaneman]

This could be a storm for Bermuda but the question will be Tropical or Subtropical

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

This IMO has the best shot of becoming Fay at this moment. It's heading into the region that has produced 4 of the 5 storms we have seen this season and it already looks to have a LLC. Soon be an Invest very soon.

[abajan]

Yeah, we may get Fay after all out there before we write the post script on this extremely quiet 2014 season ...

So far we've had five tropical storms, four of which became hurricanes, one of which became a major hurricane. I wouldn't exactly call that an extremely quiet season!

And... Even if this area is not directly impacting Guadeloupe... very moist and unstable atmosphere is bringing very strong showers and tstorms in the butterfly island! Nothing good here, very sad news as 5 guys have been seriously injured by a an awesome tstorms at Vieux-Habitants. One is dead and 2 of them suffered from cardiac arrest! Again my carib friends be aware and very vigilant Mother Nature is always surprising!

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspxHere is the sad story:

Lightning kills a man of Vieux-Habitants, another seriously injured

Lightning killed this Wednesday afternoon, not far from the village of Vieux-habitants. Five people had sought refuge under a carbet in the Assofwi property section Gerry: four workers of the association and a Carpenter working on the construction of a building nearby. The lightning fell ready of their shelter and spread up to them due to the large volume of water that stagnated around. The head of operation of Assofwi, a 35-year-old man, was killed instantly. Another was in cardio-respiratory arrest at the arrival of the rescue, but could be revived after 25 minutes of effort. He was evacuated in serious condition to the CHU of Pointe-à-Pitre. The other three were taken to the CHBT.
More details tomorrow in our edition

Sorry to hear about this.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, we may get Fay after all out there before we write the post script on this extremely quiet 2014 season ...

So far we've had five tropical storms, four of which became hurricanes, one of which became a major hurricane. I wouldn't exactly call that an extremely quiet season!

Well, let me put it this way. It has been a very quiet season for people in and across the Caribbean and along the U.S. Gulf Coast thankfully with the hostile conditions with shear in those areas throughout the season. Now, in terms of the average number of tropical cyclones we typically see in a season, we are running below this season. Now, we have only had five named storms to this point, and included in that was major Edouard, which thankfully stayed harmlessly out to sea. Arthur is the only tropical cyclone to directly impact the United States in the North Atlantic basin back in June.

So, to address your issue at hand, I am guilty of not stating this quite right I suppose. Let me just say that the 2014 season has bought about the least amount of activity in the North Atlantic basin since 1986 after some quick research. Let me also say that in all likelihood our streak here in Florida will extend into next season to 10 years as having thankfully no major hurricane strikes on the peninsula. I am definitely happy about this along with everfyone else I assume.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, we may get Fay after all out there before we write the post script on this extremely quiet 2014 season ...

So far we've had five tropical storms, four of which became hurricanes, one of which became a major hurricane. I wouldn't exactly call that an extremely quiet season!

Well, let me put it this way. It has been a very quiet season for people in and across the Caribbean and along the U.S. Gulf Coast thankfully with the hostile conditions with shear in those areas throughout the season. Now, in terms of the average number of tropical cyclones we typically see in a season, we are running below this season. Now, we have only had five named storms to this point, and included in that was major Edouard, which thankfully stayed harmlessly out to sea. Arthur is the only tropical cyclone to directly impact the United States in the North Atlantic basin back in June.

So, to address your issue at hand, I am guilty of not stating this quite right I suppose. Let me just say that the 2014 season has bought about the least amount of activity in the North Atlantic basin since 1986 after some quick research. Let me also say that in all loikelihood our streak here in Florida will extend into next season to 10 years as having thankfully no major hurricane strikes on the poeninsula

It will be listed by NOAA at the end of the season as a well below average (quiet) season because the ACE produced is very low. This is the bar set by NOAA for determining the level of activity (hyperactive, above normal, near normal, below etc). There were other quiet seasons with low numbers but relatively high ratio of hurricanes such as 1983, 1977 to total named but very low ACE.

Anyway back on topic, with MJO/Kelvin wave crossing in a week or so whatever is in the Bermuda triangle definitely has a chance at a name.

[Gustywind]

Thanks to you Abajan , to write and share this info

[northjaxpro]

Also*, when I say aquiet season within the Caribbean and U.S. Gulf coast regions, I am strictly referring to tropical cyclone development. Sure, there have been incidents like what Gustywind referred to earlier on this thread in some of the areas of the Caribbean, but no tropicial cyclone development.

Actually some areas in the Caribbean like in Puerto Rico were experiencing a major drought for much of this season. I hope some of the sheared waves that managed to traverse the hostile conditions bought some much needed rain to those islands, especially in the NE Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Thanks to you Abajan , to write and share this info

Hi Gusty.Sad news you posted. That information you can also post it at the Caribbean weather thread as many folks that are in the Caribbean Network http://stormcarib.com/ go to the link posted there that goes to the big thread.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&p=2418419#p2418419

[Gustywind]

Thanks to you Abajan , to write and share this info

Hi Gusty.Sad news you posted. That information you can also post it at the Caribbean weather thread as many folks that are in the Caribbean Network http://stormcarib.com/ go to the link posted there that goes to the big thread.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&p=2418419#p2418419

Thanks Cycloneye, gracias por tu apoyo pero Guadalupe suffriendo...

[Hammy]

I'm starting to notice a possible second upper low forming to the east of the Caribbean, which could potentially provide outflow along with the western ULL should a circulation form near or under the convection.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS with this is on drugs, has a hurricane near Bermuda from this in 16 days

[Hammy]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014100500&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

The Euro is now becoming very predictable with it's poor medium-range accuracy, as it yet again showed this developing at the ten day mark, dropped it, and as it gets closer, is once again showing development (as it similarly did with the preceding three systems.)

[cycloneye]

Invest 99L is up,go here