Still waiting for the turn...

Josephine96 · #1 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:56 am

As I wake up this Monday morning I notice we're still waiting for the turn.. Yes it's now 25 N.. yes it's moving WNW but until she starts moving NW or N.. she's headed straight for us...

She's a lot closer than we think.. only 800 miles or less... Once she passes 30 N I will begin to worry about our Norther neighbors.. but until then.. Florida is not in the clear...

#2 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:05 am

Have you looked at a loop?

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:07 am

Again... Yes I have looked at a loop...once the NHC says she's moving NW or N then I'll believe it.. Yes the satellite loops can tell me but once the NHC verifies it.. Ok...

john186292 · #4 Postby **john186292** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:08 am

hi met...did i plot it right? is there a turn to nw then nnw??
john````...use the T numbers post fm cycloneye, they are latest ones.

Josephine96 · #5 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:10 am

I saw the T Numbers and the coordinates.. but like I said, once the NHC begins to verify the turn.. then I'll feel better..

Waiting for it to get north of 30...

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:11 am

Just telling you she is making the turn on schedule...just as the NHC has predicted...just as the models predicted...just as the pro-mets here have been predicting. She is making it right on time...and right where she was supposed to...no sooner...no later. That's all I'm saying. She has been a very well behaved storm forecast track wise and intesnity forecast wise.

#7 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:15 am

Air Force Met wrote:Just telling you she is making the turn on schedule...just as the NHC has predicted...just as the models predicted...just as the pro-mets here have been predicting. She is making it right on time...and right where she was supposed to...no sooner...no later. That's all I'm saying. She has been a very well behaved storm forecast track wise and intesnity forecast wise.

Who are the "Pro-Mets" here? I want to read credentials.

Josephine96 · #8 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:18 am

LOL You go StormCenter.. you tell them....

mf_dolphin · #9 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:18 am

The users that carry the Pro-Met designation on the site have been verified by the staff to be what they say they are. Enough said on that subject! :-)

#10 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:20 am

I can assure you that the credentials of the Pro mets on this board have been checked. I can also assure you that we will not get into a discusssion on this board, especially at this time, as to who may or may not be a "professional met". We have MUCH MORE IMPORTANT ISSUES to deal with than that!!!! Trust your administrators and staff to do their job! Help us and make it easier by keeping all discussions to the weather in the weather forums!!!

chadtm80 · #11 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:20 am

You are correct as always Air Force.. Thanks for keeping us all safe ;-)

#12 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:23 am

Josephine,
You better look again.It's Turning!!! Draw a line along the track.

#13 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:25 am

Josephine,
Keep believing it's headed your way.You will be wrong!Again!!

Josephine96 · #14 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:26 am

Trader- Like I said.. I'm waiting for the NHC to say so and once it gets north of 30.. I'll be happy...

john186292 · #15 Postby **john186292** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:27 am

Would like more folks to say WHY it is turning.
heard fm only one so far...what do you say?

JetMaxx · #16 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:32 am

Just as the models forecast, hurricane Isabel is turning toward the northwest....will move slowly today and tonight, and begin to accelerate toward the NNW tomorrow.
Florida is now in the clear, as is Georgia and most likely South Carolina.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:36 am

Yes it is turning now slowly at 300-310 degrees.

#18 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:38 am

Look guys...people think we are model readers. We are not. It is just we have done this so long we know the capability of the models....especially when all of them are in agreement.

When even the models...which I call the toilet paper models such as the LBAR...are in agreement....there is no doubt of a turn. It is not that I am not in your shoes in Florida. I was in your shoes LAST YEAR! with Lili. She was moving right towards Houston with 140 mph winds and was less than 36 hours out. Now...tell me if I am wrong or not...but that is a LOT more threatening than 3 days out. Two models (ETA and NGM...OK...not real good ones but two none the less) were taking her to my door step as a 4. So...I was in your shoes less than a year ago...yet I have been accused of not knowing what it is like. I know what it is like to stare down a Cat 4.

Also...when I started in this Biz...we really didn't have models. IT was plot...analyze and use rules of thumb to prog it out. The good old days. The models today are incredible and when they are all in agreement...the chances of them being wrong by 600 miles 3 days out...well...I'd bet against it everytime with everything I own when they are this clustered. If there was a spread...then that is a different story. There is no spread.

john186292 · #19 Postby **john186292** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:42 am

how do you see the front being at jacksonvile latt tomorrow,, yet contacting Izzy five degrees south?

#20 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:45 am

IS that my question John?

Still waiting for the turn...

Still waiting for the turn...

hi, u see the turn?

Pro-mets?

Re:Isabel

Re:Isabel

BUT WHY TURNING//?

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