BoB: HUDHUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

JTWC 1500z warning. Peak goes up to 105kts.

[Alyono]

may have an eye forming

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 90.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 562 NM
SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 081018Z SSMIS
91GHZ REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW POSITION FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HIGHLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. TC
03B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW TC 03B TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 AND REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 96 AND WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 50kts.

03B HUDHUD 141008 1800 13.4N 89.6E IO 50 985

[cycloneye]

2100z warning from JTWC.

[CrazyC83]

Given the eye feature on microwave, I would estimate the intensity at 60 kt right now. Could rapidly intensify soon?

[Alyono]

EC has a fairly large area of 80-85 kt winds at landfall

[cycloneye]

0300z warning by JTWC peaks now at 115kts and landfall is very close to a place where around 2 millon live and that is Visakhapatnam.

[jaguarjace]

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Time of issue: 1000 hours IST
Dated: 09.10.2014
Bulletin No.: BOB03/2014/15/Modified

Sub: Severe Cyclonic Storm, ‘HUDHUD’ over eastcentral Bay of Bengal,
Cyclone Alert for north coastal Andhra Pradesh & south Odisha coasts.

The Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestward
and intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of 9th October 2014
near latitude 13.8ºN and longitude 89.0ºE about 750 km southeast of Gopalpur and east-southeast of
Visakhapatnam. The system would continue to move west-northwestwards, intensify further into a
very severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. The system would cross north Andhra Pradesh
coast around Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 12th October 2014.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of 9th October, 2014.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf

[cycloneye]

2100z warning. Now over Visakhapatnam at landfall.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to have levelled off at about 60 kt for a while. Dvorak shows T4.0 but the WindSat is a bit lower.

[Alyono]

this looks as if it would be a disaster. Could be a cat 4 striking a major city directly. If this does pan out, it could be as bad as in Tacloban

[cycloneye]

That WINDSAT data is from this morning at 12 UTC.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah it is marginal around 60-65 kt.

[Sanibel]

Taking form now. Visakhapatnam is a deep sea port and major commerce center subject to surge.

[cycloneye]

0300z warning.No change to the landfall at Visakhapatnam.

[Alyono]

I heard this has been under a negative Kelvin wave. That negative influence is going away.

This could undergo RI in the 24 hours prior to landfall (IMD will NOT pick it up as they DO NOT break Dvorak constraints)

[Alyono]

looks to be about 75 kts right now using an embedded center pattern

[CrazyC83]

It's tough with these kind of storms without Recon due to considerable variance that can result.

[RaijinWeather]

Two Cyclones - Exactly One Year Apart.

Cyclone Phailin crossed Odisha coast on 12th October 2013, Cyclone Hudhud is expected to cross North AP coast on 12th October 2014 exactly a year later.

This is how both the cyclones look at 5:30 IST on October 10th a year apart. Phailin looks better organized and a compact monster, Hudhud looks equally menacing and possibly covers a larger area compared to Phailin.