WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track down to 130kts.

19W VONGFONG 141009 1200 20.3N 129.5E WPAC 130 926

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 28//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS WITH THE INNER EYE DIAMETER AT 26 NM. THE EYE REMAINS
SYMMETRICAL WITH SHARP OUTLINES - TYPICAL OF VERY INTENSE CYCLONES.
HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP ALSO REVEALS AN OVERALL WARMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS - AN INDICATION OF WEAKENING. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED AS THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY ENHANCING OUTFLOW, HAS FILLED. STY 19W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHERE, FOR THE MOMENT, THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS LIGHT AT 10-15 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 19W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR. AFTER TAU 36, A
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOMENTARILY
DEFLECT 19W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. BUT AFTER TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE PRIMARY STEERING STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 95 KNOTS
BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY VONGFONG WILL BE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE
OF THE STR AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF JAPAN AND DEEPER INTO THE
COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM: BY TAU 120,
STY 19W WILL BE REDUCED TO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Large and monster 11 T anomaly...

[euro6208]

This will be a close call for Okinawa...

[euro6208]

It has maintained that well defined eye for over 60 hours now without any EWC...One incredibly strong typhoon...

[euro6208]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2824

Super Typhoon Vongfong Headed Towards Okinawa

[euro6208]

Okinawa under TCCOR 3

[CrazyC83]

Given the enormous size, I wouldn't be surprised if the pressure is below 900mb.

[weathernerdguy]

EWRC starting...

[CrazyC83]

This is going to be one enormous storm most likely even larger than now after the EWRC...as large as Igor or Sandy perhaps? The IKE and HDP are going to be incredibly high.

[cycloneye]

2100z warning now places a cat 2/3 near Okinawa.

[Sanibel]

Wow. There's something to track.

[CrazyC83]

Given the gargantuan size, even a lower category storm could be catastrophic.

[cycloneye]

The 0300z warning has it tracking around 38 miles from Okinawa.

[CrazyC83]

It appears that it has weakened quite a bit. I would put it at 110 kt personally (but the huge size masks that)...

[euro6208]

120 knots Category 4 now and CPA to Okinawa is 21 miles and a very very slow mover...

WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 25 NM EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AS THE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE BECAME MORE ELONGATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE MSI LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 100518Z AAMSU-B PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND
REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW
THAT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. TY 19W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRIMARY STEERING STR. BETWEEN TAU
24 AND 36, A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL MOMENTARILY DEFLECT TY 19W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THEN BY TAU 48,
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE KOREA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN
THE PRIMARY STEERING STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN JAPAN. INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND JAPAN'S RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN TY VONGFONG. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW OVER NORTHERN JAPAN. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[RaijinWeather]

US astronaut Reid Wiseman recently passed over it in the International Space Station…
While he was up there, Wiseman made sure to take a snap of the typhoon and it shows us just how big Super Typhoon Vongfong really is – especially as the eye of the storm can be very clearly seen in the picture.

[euro6208]

[cycloneye]

US astronaut Reid Wiseman recently passed over it in the International Space Station…
While he was up there, Wiseman made sure to take a snap of the typhoon and it shows us just how big Super Typhoon Vongfong really is – especially as the eye of the storm can be very clearly seen in the picture.http://tapatalk.imageshack.com/ ... d90886.jpg

Impressive view. To let you know that I moved your post from the HudHud thread to here as is about Typhoon Vongfong.

[euro6208]

Direct hit for Okinawa per latest EURO and GFS runs and right up through the spine of mainland Japan...