ATL: GONZALO - Models

[Alyono]

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902014) 20141010 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141010 1200 141011 0000 141011 1200 141012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 49.2W 14.2N 51.2W 14.7N 53.0W 15.1N 54.6W
BAMD 13.3N 49.2W 14.0N 50.8W 14.4N 52.3W 14.6N 53.9W
BAMM 13.3N 49.2W 14.1N 51.0W 14.5N 52.6W 14.8N 54.1W
LBAR 13.3N 49.2W 14.4N 51.1W 15.2N 53.2W 16.0N 55.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141012 1200 141013 1200 141014 1200 141015 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 56.3W 16.1N 59.8W 17.9N 63.4W 20.5N 66.0W
BAMD 14.9N 55.6W 16.0N 59.0W 18.4N 62.7W 21.0N 66.0W
BAMM 15.0N 55.8W 16.1N 59.5W 18.3N 63.3W 20.8N 66.4W
LBAR 17.0N 57.6W 19.1N 61.4W 22.1N 64.7W 25.2N 65.7W
SHIP 57KTS 71KTS 82KTS 91KTS
DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 82KTS 91KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 49.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 46.7W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 43.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


ships indicates a solid cat 2 in 120 hours, indicating that the environment should be favorable.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF furthest west of the models I see though still looks like it will recurve it. Note this is very long-range and subject to change.

[blp]

ECMWF furthest west of the models I see though still looks like it will recurve it:

[]http://i58.tinypic.com/35lu35v.jpg[/img]

Yea the odds are quite good on the recurve but it will be close enough to land to make it interesting. We need to see what today's run shows because yesterday it shifted 300 miles and a shift in the other direction is certainly possible on the next run.

[TheStormExpert]

ECMWF furthest west of the models I see though still looks like it will recurve it:

[]http://i58.tinypic.com/35lu35v.jpg[/img]

Yea the odds are quite good on the recurve but it will be close enough to land to make it interesting. We need to see what today's run shows because yesterday it shifted 300 miles and a shift in the other direction is certainly possible on the next run.

One thing I've noticed is that it seems to travel slower on the today's 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z run, probably due to a light steering environment ahead of the next trough over the Great Lakes that should sweep it out to sea.

[Blown Away]

Models at 240 hours For 90L:


ECMWF... Bahamas... West Outlier..


06z GFS...


GEM/CMC...

[blp]

Models at 240 hours For 90L:

[]http://i59.tinypic.com/nqcq6r.jpg[/img]
ECMWF... Bahamas... West Outlier..

[]http://i57.tinypic.com/fq3xy.jpg[/img]
06z GFS...

[]http://i60.tinypic.com/2zyc28i.jpg[/img]
GEM/CMC...

The GEM is out to lunch because it has this moving NNW now and following 99l out to sea which does not appear likely. The GFS is well the GFS and not very good right now. I think the difference is that the models are showing a deeper system this run that will be impacted by the next trough but I also see that the next trough will pull out quickly and if the system is shallower then it might get left behind again as the EURO showed yesterday when it had a weaker system.

[CrazyC83]

Honestly, I think the Euro is on to something. Wouldn't hitting the bottom of the trough just drive it in?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is running. Faster further south on this run out through 72 hours so far, passing a little south of Puerto Rico by 78 hours. Looks to be heading for Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

Mona passage between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico by 96 hours.

[Alyono]

EC is a LOT lower in terms of pressure than Cowen's maps indicate. I am seeing 964mb on the full EC

[Alyono]

GFS is north of Hispañiola at 108 hours, moving NNW

[gatorcane]

Looks to have turned back more WNW by 120 hours and the trough is lifting out...

[gatorcane]

Looks to have stalled east of the SE Bahamas...and gaining strength on this 12Z GFS run, by 147 hours

[gatorcane]

By 168 hours looks to be just drifting north east of the SE Bahamas and gaining strength still.

[SFLcane]

I just cant see 90L getting close to florida at all. Cold front next week will more then likely weaken minimal ridging that's there. Might even follow STD 7 path.

Its can happen but in oct its rather unlikely to get a system heading w for to long before recurving.

[Alyono]

MU has a strong hurricane into Canada

[SFLcane]

MU has a strong hurricane into Canada

Bla..

[SFLcane]

Follows 99L....

[adam0983]

I am going on vacation to St. Martin this week. Does anyone think that Invest 90L will have a effect on the weather in St. Martin.

[blp]

12z UKmet.