BoB: HUDHUD - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

Hudhud and Phailin from MTSAT Floater.

[Alyono]

seeing some hints of a faint eye on satellite

[Alyono]

One note, when using the SSD imagery, you are close to the western edge of the satellite imagery. Thus, that satellite imagery is degraded.

I has a look at meteosat imagery and the system looks MUCH better organized on that satellite

[RaijinWeather]

Hudhud has started to explode.. Just look at the convection in SW and NW quadrant and in the core and from now it will move NW towards South Orissa

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif

[jaguarjace]

MTSAT and METEOSAT comparison. METEOSAT product put together by me.

[cycloneye]

Up to 85kts at 18z Best track:

03B HUDHUD 141010 1800 15.9N 86.5E IO 85 959

[cycloneye]

2100z warning peaks at 115kts.

[galaxy401]

Should be noted that the cyclone is now Very Severe.

[RaijinWeather]

North Andra pradesh in great danger

[Iune]

I have elderly relatives in Visakhapatnam, so I really hope Hudhud weakens (kind of like Phailin last year). This will unfortunately have a good chance of being one of the more infamous storms in the region if it does indeed make landfall near Visakhapatnam as a Category 4.

[CrazyC83]

It's also larger than Phailin, so storm surge is likely a major threat even if it doesn't reach extreme intensity.

[Alyono]

this likely will be intensifying quite quickly as it moves inland. Continues to gradually become better organized.

This may very well be an upper cat 4 at landfall, if not more intense

[cycloneye]

0300z warning at 85kts.

[Alyono]

another reason this may be a disaster is that the IMD is forecasting this to be a moderate cat 1 at landfall. That is what those in the path are preparing for. Something to strike with winds of about 75 kts with gusts around 90 kts

[Alyono]

the above is using JTWC. The offiical advisories are issued by the IMD and that is what those in India will be hearing. Max gusts expected to be 160 kmh, or slightly above 100 mph. Moderate cat 1

[Alyono]

looks like it has winds of 90 to 95 kts right now

IMD CANNOT have above 115 kts at landfall even if this were to look like Haiyan. They will not break Dvorak constraints under any circumstances, and they have this as a T 4.0 now (I do not understand how they make Dvorak estimates as their initial estimates tend to not match with any other organization)

[CrazyC83]

Rapid intensification is definitely underway. And yes, Dvorak constraints need to be broken if necessary.

[Alyono]

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/imag ... n/rsmc.pdf

according to IMD, this is only a T4.0 and has winds of 65 kts

To those in India, this is MUCH more intense than your met department is saying. It is going to come in far more intense than you are being told in your media reports

[jaguarjace]

Eye starting to appear.

[HurricaneBill]

Mass evacuations underway.

Evacuation begins in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh as they brace for Cyclone Hudhud