ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Luis, are you still in need of rain there in PR? 90L could provide some, though probably no significant wind by then.

[cycloneye]

Luis, are you still in need of rain there in PR? 90L could provide some, though probably no significant wind by then.

August was a good month that rained a lot but September and early October that has begun with 0 was not as rainy so we are a little bit below the normal to date and that deficit has caused some of the lakes to come down so it may not be too bad if we get rain from this but of course not too much.

Code: Select all

PRECIPITATION (IN)

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR

  YESTERDAY        T             1.72 1970   0.15  -0.15     0.04
  MONTH TO DATE    T                         1.44  -1.44     0.97
  SINCE SEP 1      6.42                      7.21  -0.79     8.58
  SINCE JAN 1     39.14                     40.83  -1.69    66.21

[hurricanes1234]

How strong are the models making this?

[wxman57]

How strong are the models making this?

Euro: 960mb
GFS: 980mb

[Alyono]

seeing a significant increase in organization during the past few hours. Inflow has increased significantly south of the broad center

[Hammy]

Given cloud motion, a circulation could be taking shape around 16/53, is it possible this forms earlier than the models are showing?

[Alyono]

models are showing development within 48 hours. That is why I was floored when I saw NHC only giving this a 10% chance through 48 hours.

[gatorcane]

850MB vort looking healthy. I agree 10% is too low. Could they be factoring in other models that don't develop this for some reason like the NAVGEM and GEM?

[MGC]

I am going on vacation to St. Martin this week. Does anyone think that Invest 90L will have a effect on the weather in St. Martin.

When is "this week"? Expect rain there Sunday through Monday morning.

Just stay away from Orient Beach and you will be OK......MGC

[Gustywind]

850MB vort looking healthy. I agree 10% is too low. Could they be factoring in other models that don't develop this for some reason like the NAVGEM and GEM?

And Gatorcane off topic, look that the vorticity (pretty healthy too) further east associated with the twave west of the CV islands! Looks like a possible 91L in the making during the next few days?? Something to keep an eye on too...

[weatherfanatic]

There is ONE possibkle way this system could affect the US. If the way the ULL sets up over the central US and the high over the atlantic makes a alleyway for 90L to go north into new england or even retrograde back toward the coast. Everything would have to come into place perfectly and the ULL and high would have to suck it in and be in the right position at the right time. 500mb on 12z Euro shows this setup possible. Note that Euro does not show the same frontal like storm coming across the northeast. Only GFS, NAVGEM and CMC do. Call me crazy but the Euro may, just may change course over the next several days.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

20%/60%

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles. Further development is possible over the
weekend, with environmental conditions becoming more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by early next week. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph for the next
couple of days and interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Evil Jeremy]

8 PM TWO:

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

I don't think I've ever used an emoticon on my time here. Having said that;

NHC generally doesn't make jumps this large in a single 6hr TWO cycle.

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWO:

20%/60%

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles. Further development is possible over the
weekend, with environmental conditions becoming more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by early next week. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph for the next
couple of days and interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

That big jump to 60% is fairly surprising to my untrained eyes. Cycloneye, we must have to monitor 90L in case of as it continues to approache the EC. Let's see if this thing could pose a possible threat during the next couple of days.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WAS REESTABLISHED
ALONG 59W/60W FROM 9N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE SURFACE 1011 MB LOW REMAINS NEAR 15N52W AND IS
CONSIDERED A SEPARATE FEATURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 56W-
60W.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2014101100, , BEST, 0, 153N, 527W, 25, 1009, DB

[floridasun78]

what talk on islands about 90l?

[TheStormExpert]

Looks very pathetic tonight, maybe the Euro has gone nuts?

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like Fay is shearing this at the moment but after 48hrs when the influence lessens then we may have liftoff

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[Hammy]

Development isn't being shown, and hasn't really been shown at any point, until about the time it reaches Puerto Rico.