ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NHC_Atlantic 1m1 minute ago

NHC will be initiating advisories on Subtropical Depression Seven to the south of Bermuda at 11 AM.

10:15 AM - 10 Oct 2014

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status ... 6701146112

[floridasun78]

who say season was over it look like aug in topical now

[wxman57]

Well, this short-lived storm should generate quite a bit of excitement here! Or not...

[tropicwatch]

Seven appears to have a nice center of circulation but needs to put some clothes on

[cycloneye]

Well, this short-lived storm should generate quite a bit of excitement here! Or not...

I think by far the excitement will be 90L.

[TheStormExpert]

Well, this short-lived storm should generate quite a bit of excitement here! Or not...

I think by far the excitement will be 90L.

Also, unless Fay can become purely Tropical in a quick matter of time it won't be able to produce any ACE since it is Subtropical.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
200 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF
BERMUDA...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 64.0W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Subtropical Storm Fay!!

AL, 07, 2014101018, , BEST, 0, 243N, 640W, 35, 1005, SS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 64.2W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the subtropical cyclone has become a little
better organized since the previous advisory. Deep convection has
gradually been developing closer to the low-level circulation
center, and a maximum SFMR surface wind measured thus far by the
aircraft has been 35 kt. Based on this information, plus a
subtropical satellite classification of ST2.5/35 kt from TAFB, this
system has been upgraded to Subtropical Storm Fay. The Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will continue investigating Fay for the next hour
or so.

The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Fay is expected to move
steadily northwestward and then northward around the western
periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located along 29N-30N
latitude for the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, the cyclone is expected
to recurve toward the northeast and accelerate when it becomes
embedded in the strong mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough that is currently located near the U.S. east coast.
The latest NHC model guidance has shifted somewhat to the west,
especially the ECMWF model, but the models remain tightly clustered
and in good agreement on the aforementioned track scenario,
including absorption by a frontal system by 72 hours. The official
track has been shifted to the left of the previous forecast and lies
just to the west of and a little slower than the consensus track
model TVCN.

The large size of Fay, along with strong southeasterly to southerly
vertical wind shear, should inhibit much in the way of
intensification, despite the cyclone being over anomalously warm 29C
sea-surface temperatures. If the recent trend in the development of
inner-core convection continues, then Fay could transition into a
tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours or so. However, this
transition would have virtually no effect on the size of the
tropical-storm-force wind field. The NHC intensity forecast closely
follows a blend of the statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 24.7N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 28.5N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 31.7N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 33.7N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[CrazyC83]

Poor Fay getting no love. Unlike in 2008 when she got so much attention (300, 400 pages?) I think this will get a miniscule fraction of that.

[arlwx]

I think a lot of people are very happy this is not Fay 2008 redux.

[CrazyC83]

Recon just found a much stronger Fay. Likely about 55 kt.

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FAY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 64.2W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

As the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exited through
an area of very deep convection in the northwestern quadrant of
Fay, they found a peak 5,000 ft flight-level wind of 75 kt and peak
SFMR winds in the 50-55 kt range. Based on these data, this special
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 50
kt, which could be a bit conservative. The aircraft also found that
the central pressure had fallen to 1000 mb on their last pass
through the broad center. The intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward through 36 hours, and shows the possibility for some
additional strengthening before gradual weakening begins after 24
hours.

Aircraft fixes and satellite imagery suggest that the initial
motion is 340/10, a bit to the right of the previous track. Based
on this, the 12-hour forecast position has been nudged a little to
the east, but no changes were made to the NHC track at 24 hours and
beyond.

Note that this special advisory takes the place of the scheduled
800 PM AST...0000 UTC...intermediate advisory. The next advisory
issued on Fay will be the full advisory package at 1100 PM
AST...0300 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2330Z 25.2N 64.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 28.5N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 31.7N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 33.7N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[TheStormExpert]

I think a lot of people are very happy this is not Fay 2008 redux.

I remember after the 2008 hurricane season The Weather Channel was arguing that Fay should have really been retired after it's rare three landfall it made on Florida and the extreme amounts of rain it produce, and who can't forget how it strengthened some over Lake Okeechobee, not to mention I missed my second day of High School because Fay cancelled area schools.

Fay(2008) was one for the record books here in Florida and if it wasn't for those biggies like Ike and Gustav it may have very well been retired, just like the case with Isaac(2012) not being retired because of Sandy.

[sponger]

I am grateful for the surf but when was the last storm in the Atlantic that actually looked like a tropical system?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

...FAY EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 64.5W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

The cloud pattern of Fay features an area of deep convection
displaced northwest of the low-level center by about 30 kt of
southerly shear and a fractured convective band well east of the
center. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on the earlier
aircraft data. Overall, the cloud pattern looks more tropical than
it did a few hours ago, and Fay will likely transition to a
tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Given that the shear is
expected to continue, only limited intensification is shown in
the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by slow weakening until the
cyclone is absorbed after 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast
is close to the latest IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 345/11, as Fay continues to move
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. There is no
change to the track forecast philosophy, with Fay expected to turn
northward in the next 12 to 24 hours and then recurve into the
mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is a little to
the right of the previous one through 24 hours based on the initial
position and motion, and is largely an update of the previous
forecast after that time. The NHC forecast is close to the latest
dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 25.9N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 27.7N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 30.8N 64.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 33.9N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 36.6N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[HurricaneBelle]

I am grateful for the surf but when was the last storm in the Atlantic that actually looked like a tropical system?

The last named storm, Edouard, or have we forgotten already? It was a cat 3 with a classic appearance.

[cycloneye]

SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

It appears that Fay is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics
as the convection becomes more symmetric and getting closer to the
center, but it is not quite tropical yet. There is a small window
of opportunity for Fay to transition to a tropical cyclone during
the next 6 to 12 hours before the shear increases further. There
is no data to change the winds at this time, and the initial
intensity is kept at 50 kt. Another reconnaissance flight is
scheduled for later this morning. Only a slight strengthening is
anticipated before the system becomes absorbed by a strong cold
front in about 48 hours as indicated by most of the global models.

The initial motion estimate is 355/10. Fay continues to move
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, and is
expected to continue northward for 6 to 12 more hours. It should
then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in
forward speed. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one, and follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 26.7N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 29.1N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 32.2N 63.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 35.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

Now a Tropical Storm.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
800 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

...FAY TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 65.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES