BoB: HUDHUD - Post-Tropical

Grifforzer · #61 Postby **Grifforzer** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:30 am

Dvorak from the IMD is now T5.0

SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT 3D PIC OF 110600 UTC (.) REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0N TO 30.0S AND LONG 40.0E TO 125.0E (.)
SALIENT FEATURES:-

VORTEX :-
VORTEX (HUD HUD) OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED NOW LIES CENTERED NEAR 16.1N/85.2E(.) INTENSITY T5.0 (.) EYE CLEARLY SEEN IN IMAGERIES (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER AREA BET LAT 11.0N TO 18.0N WEST OF LONG 88.5E (.)

RaijinWeather · #62 Postby **RaijinWeather** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:57 am

Awesome explode in intensity but not the best in Bay. Hudhud's RI has dropped from 971 mb to 941 mb in last 3 hours.

Cyclole Giri in 2010 was more rapid in intensification 970 mb to 927 mb in 3 hours.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... B-list.txt

Cyclone Nargis in 2008 exploded from 975 mb to 929 mb in just 3 hours

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... B-list.txt

RaijinWeather · #63 Postby **RaijinWeather** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:03 am

Can Hudud become stronger than Phailin of 2013?

Phailin ADT 8.1.5

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... B-list.txt

Pressure of 924.3 mb

Hudhud ADT 8.1.4
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... B-list.txt

Pressure of 941.8mb

RaijinWeather · #64 Postby **RaijinWeather** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:08 am

Entire coast from Gopalpur to Kalingapatnam getting heavy rains from the first bands of Hudhud. Eyewall has also become extremely intense

Tihidi in Orissa has recorded 82 mm from 8:30 am today and 107 mm in total from Hudhud already

RaijinWeather · #65 Postby **RaijinWeather** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:13 am

Radar image of Hudhud

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/ppz_vsk.gif

#66 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:34 am

glad to see IMD breaking constraints!

RaijinWeather · #67 Postby **RaijinWeather** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 5:01 am

A battle between JTWC and IMD .. which forecast will be accurate?

JTWC forecast shows landfall south of Vizag where as IMD shows landfall north of Vizag close to Vizayanagaram

RaijinWeather · #68 Postby **RaijinWeather** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 5:04 am

IMD has increased wind speed of Hudhud from " 155 kmph gusting to 165 kmph" to "180 kmph gusting to 195 kmph" as expected

RaijinWeather · #69 Postby **RaijinWeather** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 5:06 am

Dark clouds cover the sky as Vishakhapatnam district in Andhra Pradesh braces for Cyclone Hudhud, expected to make landfall tomorrow.

This thatched roof will fly away in the impact of the storm.

RaijinWeather · #70 Postby **RaijinWeather** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 5:08 am

Srikakulam district in north AP has been getting good rains from cyclone hudhud.

Vajrapukothuru in Sompeta has got 55 mm till 2.00 pm IST

#71 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 6:05 am

MTSAT is basically useless at this point.

Just saw a meteosat image. This thing is clearly undergoing rapid intensification now. May make a run at cat 5 prior to landfall

#72 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:16 am

I'd expect the winds to be increased in their next advisory

#73 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:06 am

wonder why there is so little interest in this, which will devastate a major city, yet there is a lot of interest in a slop typhoon near Okinawa, which occurs 4 times a year

#74 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:38 am

appears to have stalled. Hopefully, this stalls long enough to allow it to weaken like Phailin did last year

#75 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:51 am

Not sure, but being in a folder that gets little attention might make things quieter.

I would put it at 120 kt right now personally.

euro6208 · #76 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:54 am

03B HUDHUD 141011 1200 16.3N 84.8E IO 110 941

BT update is near Category 4...

Grifforzer · #77 Postby **Grifforzer** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:54 am

hmm...

did India Meteorological Department go to 10 minute sustained winds?

T5.0 dvorak and they give 80 knots instead of their normal 90 knots for that intensity.

euro6208 · #78 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:04 am

Any live news webcast in the path of HudHud?

euro6208 · #79 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:10 am

REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 21-NM EYE,
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A
111157Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. TC 03B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, THEN BEGIN RE-CURVING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT AS A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN INDIA. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND HWRF, THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, AND SHOULD PEAK NEAR 115 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

#80 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:23 am

Grifforzer wrote:hmm...

did India Meteorological Department go to 10 minute sustained winds?

T5.0 dvorak and they give 80 knots instead of their normal 90 knots for that intensity.

IMD is 3 minute sustained.

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