ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Is there any way this thing misses the trough going across the eastern US?

[Gustywind]

If this manages to strengthen sooner, would that tend to cause it to go a bit more north and miss the bulk of the islands?

Don't think so Hammy. I just checked the steering winds for different levels/strengths and they all call for due west movement regardless of strength until at least Monday night / Tuesday.

So it's moving straight to the Leewards islands at low speed 10-15kts?

[ozonepete]

Excellent analysis, but which coordinates do you see the possible "center" of 90L?

Oh and thanks for the compliment.
Here's what I think, Gusty:

[ozonepete]

If this manages to strengthen sooner, would that tend to cause it to go a bit more north and miss the bulk of the islands?

Don't think so Hammy. I just checked the steering winds for different levels/strengths and they all call for due west movement regardless of strength until at least Monday night / Tuesday.

So it's moving straight to the Leewards islands at low speed 10-15kts?

Yup. Unfortunately that gives it more time to strengthen than a faster moving system would have. You'd better keep a close eye on this my friend.

[ozonepete]

Is there any way this thing misses the trough going across the eastern US?

That's too far out in time to know.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Is there any way this thing misses the trough going across the eastern US?

That's too far out in time to know.

Was wondering and that kind of answers my question. So, your saying there is a chance? lol.

[Gustywind]

Excellent analysis, but which coordinates do you see the possible "center" of 90L?

Here's what I think, Gusty:

Ok thanks... just on Guadeloupe lattitude, center could be close to Antigua tommorow near 17N while most convective activity seems much souther. We must really focus on 90L now, more signs of organization are occuring.

[ozonepete]

Is there any way this thing misses the trough going across the eastern US?

That's too far out in time to know.

Was wondering and that kind of answers my question. So, your saying there is a chance? lol.

Yeah, anything can happen in October. Watch medium range models to see if a long wave trough develops over the central U.S. early next week. That would develop a southerly flow over the eastern U.S. and help pull it closer to the coast. Right now the best models, GFS and Euro, don't show that but they are also not showing much of a consensus on what will happen either. We have to wait for them to converge on a common solution, which I don't expect until Monday at the earliest.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Yeah, anything can happen in October. Watch medium range models to see if a long wave trough develops over the central U.S. early next week. That would develop a southerly flow over the eastern U.S. and help pull it closer to the coast. Right now the best models, GFS and Euro, don't show that but they are also not showing much of a consensus on what will happen either. We have to wait for them to converge on a common solution, which I don't expect until Monday at the earliest.

Thanks for the information. You make a lot of sense there but so far this year it has been fish after fish or no development. This storm although looks to be developing. It is a good thing that nothing major has hit us in almost a decade but it is just odd to see that seeing as the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico is so large an area.

[floridasun78]

weatherman here in miami got good feeling that will move over south Bahama move ne after

[ozonepete]

weatherman here in miami got good feeling that will move over south Bahama move ne after

That's the model consensus so far and there's fairly high confidence in that forecast as of today.

[floridasun78]

weatherman here in miami got good feeling that will move over south Bahama move ne after

That's the model consensus so far and there's fairly high confidence in that forecast as of today.

yes because front forecast be over florida as system get close bahama

[fd122]

Although we need the rain I hope this doesn't strengthen too much before reaching us.

[beoumont]

Thanks for the information. You make a lot of sense there but so far this year it has been fish after fish or no development. This storm although looks to be developing. It is a good thing that nothing major has hit us in almost a decade but it is just odd to see that seeing as the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico is so large an area.

A statistician might conclude that the ten year (major) hurricane landfall drought is an obvious occurrence to follow all those landfalls in 2004-2005. Ying-yang. The pendulum swings back and forth. Etc, etc.

[Hammy]

Thanks for the information. You make a lot of sense there but so far this year it has been fish after fish or no development. This storm although looks to be developing. It is a good thing that nothing major has hit us in almost a decade but it is just odd to see that seeing as the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico is so large an area.

A statistician might conclude that the ten year (major) hurricane landfall drought is an obvious occurrence to follow all those landfalls in 2004-2005. Ying-yang. The pendulum swings back and forth. Etc, etc.

Interesting thing to note is that Texas went through a similar hurricane drought as Florida: Though there were three major hurricanes elsewhere in the US between, Texas had no hurricane landfalls between Jerry in 1989 and Bret in 1999, and no major hurricanes between Alicia and Bret (16 years)

Luckily though, in the case of Texas, the coastline isn't quite as extensively developed as Florida's, and when the latter's quiet period ends there will likely be a whole lot of people unprepared.

[LarryWx]

Invest 90L is looking pretty organized already. This could be declared a TD by tomorrow and the 0Z Euro is again showing a sig. TC just east of the Bahamas by late week. Regardless, the CONUS has little chance to be threatened by 90L imo as I don't see the ridging to its north to give it a westerly enough component toward the east coast. However, it is still too early to be ~100% confident.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Agreed. 90L looks a bit better. Although, it looked better a few hours ago. Maybe DMAX will help it? We will see.

Synopsis for 91L and other systems in other basins: http://goo.gl/y9Xa5r


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[bahamaswx]

Looks like a TD right now to me. Just need an ASCAT pass to confirm.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG 57W OR
ABOUT 320 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXCEPT N
OF 17N WHERE DRY AIR AND DUST IS DEPICTED IN GOES-R IMAGERY AS
WELL AS IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS ARE FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 53W-59W. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHANCE FOR
CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAINS AS MEDIUM.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING EARLY
SUNDAY.

[Gustywind]

First appearence of 90L on SSD...

12/0545 UTC 16.2N 56.2W T1.0/1.0 90L