CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 91, 2014101012, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1287W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014101018, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1299W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014101100, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1311W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014101106, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1325W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2014101112, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1340W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Yellow Evan]

Cloudiness and thunderstorms located about 1500 miles east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a surface
trough. Environmental conditions are conducive for slow development
of this system during the next several days while it moves westward
or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

GFS brings this near the Aloha state.

[galaxy401]

Surprised they put it as an invest now considering the chances were higher yesterday.

[Yellow Evan]

Surprised they put it as an invest now considering the chances were higher yesterday.

Your thinking of a different system near MX. This is in the WDR near 135W.

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become slightly better
organized in association with a trough of low pressure located about
1500 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental
conditions are conducive for continued gradual development of this
system during the next several days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

91E INVEST 141011 1800 10.1N 135.1W EPAC 20 1009

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912014 10/11/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 41 54 61 64 67 73 78 80
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 41 54 61 64 67 73 78 80
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 27 31 35 39 44 49 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 3 4 8 14 12 12 11 10 10 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 2 1 0
SHEAR DIR 298 345 356 328 138 148 136 108 76 77 54 60 41
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 148 148 146 143 140 140 142 142 140
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 68 71 73 73 72 75 73 67 61 59 59 62 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 11 15 16 16 17 20 22 23
850 MB ENV VOR 23 22 27 29 34 48 64 56 52 63 68 70 75
200 MB DIV 62 97 128 118 103 157 133 133 75 62 40 54 68
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3
LAND (KM) 2360 2243 2126 2014 1903 1700 1502 1284 1124 1018 940 873 776
LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.9 12.6 13.5 13.9 13.7 13.3 13.0 13.2
LONG(DEG W) 135.1 136.2 137.2 138.2 139.2 141.0 142.7 144.5 146.0 147.4 148.8 150.2 151.4

[galaxy401]

Oops I was looking at the wrong area.

This invest will probably be something the CPAC will monitor.

[Yellow Evan]

Last two GFS runs bring this south of Hawaii before turning north and passing E.

[Kingarabian]

I wonder if it will develop.

[cycloneye]

I wonder if it will develop.

Here is the answer.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad low pressure area has formed about 1400 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands and is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to
become increasingly conducive for development of this system during
the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward
at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[supercane4867]

00z GFS is hilarious

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS

T174

[Alyono]

looks like a fair chance of a Hawaii hurricane.

Since this will be coming from the south, this may not weaken but intensify as it approaches Hawaii

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about 1300 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance during
the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward
at around 10 to 15 mph, and enters the central Pacific basin by
Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[dexterlabio]

Were there any October tropical cyclones at this far west in EPAC?

[Yellow Evan]

Were there any October tropical cyclones at this far west in EPAC?

Lowell 02 and Yolanda 92, yes.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS a litte south of Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912014 10/12/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 42 49 61 68 73 75 78 84 81 80
V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 42 49 61 68 73 75 78 84 81 80
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 44 50 56 60 64 67 69 69
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 9 14 12 16 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -1 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 79 82 82 97 99 92 88 85 73 45 26 61 65
SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 146 143 140 139 139 139 138 137 135
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8
700-500 MB RH 76 74 76 75 76 73 66 61 59 57 55 53 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 17 16 17 17 19 22 20 20
850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 33 42 49 51 45 47 52 48 51 42 47
200 MB DIV 124 126 144 146 110 83 73 49 7 31 42 47 33
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2
LAND (KM) 2044 1940 1835 1745 1655 1497 1365 1245 1151 1047 893 737 576
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.2 13.0 13.7 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.7
LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.9 139.8 140.6 141.3 142.5 143.5 144.6 145.7 146.8 148.3 149.6 151.1
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 6 5 6 7 7 8
HEAT CONTENT 20 23 22 21 22 20 17 17 15 19 19 20 16

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 10. 12. 12. 15. 20. 17. 17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.

[supercane4867]

12z GFS has a hurricane nearly stalled east of Big Island and slowly move onshore as a minimal TS