ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

latest ASCAT shows winds of 30 kts (though likely missed the inner core). More than likely the NHC estimate is correct but it may have been 45-50 kts earlier, and it almost looks like it's starting to leave the upper high behind. The advisory even pointed to a slight increase in shear and the radar presentation does not look as good as a few hours ago.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

latest ASCAT shows winds of 30 kts (though likely missed the inner core). More than likely the NHC estimate is correct but it may have been 45-50 kts earlier, and it almost looks like it's starting to leave the upper high behind. The advisory even pointed to a slight increase in shear and the radar presentation does not look as good as a few hours ago.

At least someone else can agree with me. This thing is not intensifying it is weakening and it is a good trend that has happened almost magically the last ten years. I was mentioning it in earlier pages on this thread and the models thread. I almost know these things are going to turn and it seems to be a lot more of them recently have been dieing out for what seems to be no apparent reason. They show strong structure, in good environments, and perfect sea temperatures but still find a way to fall apart. I remember as a kid these storms would fire up and yes a lot of them would turn away but that has not been the case recently. It is good for the US and people in the Atlantic but just odd at the same time.

[SeGaBob]

weakening? seriously?

lets not make these kinds of proclamations when a storm is bearing down on land areas, especially when the data indicate otherwise

It is my OPINION and the signature under my post lets everyone know I am no meteorologist just merely voicing my opinion. It is for guys like you to prove me wrong. What does the data say? I see a storm that looks disorganized on satellite and the pressure has gone up the last advisory correct?

The pressure at 5pm was 1004mb and at 8 and 11 pm it's 1002mb. Doesn't sound like it's rising to me... Alyono is right about this one.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

weakening? seriously?

lets not make these kinds of proclamations when a storm is bearing down on land areas, especially when the data indicate otherwise

It is my OPINION and the signature under my post lets everyone know I am no meteorologist just merely voicing my opinion. It is for guys like you to prove me wrong. What does the data say? I see a storm that looks disorganized on satellite and the pressure has gone up the last advisory correct?

The pressure at 5pm was 1004mb and at 8 and 11 pm it's 1002mb. Doesn't sound like it's rising to me... Alyono is right about this one.

I was wrong there but I disagree that it is getting stronger. The satellite presentation looks putrid for a storm poised to strengthen. I could be wrong but I doubt it.

[Alyono]

trust me, your interpretation is incorrect, Tarheel and Hammy

Just looked at the radar, this retains a tight core and convection is over the core. ASCAT with its 25 km resolution will never resolve this core. It is not of much use for determining the max winds

[Hammy]

latest ASCAT shows winds of 30 kts (though likely missed the inner core). More than likely the NHC estimate is correct but it may have been 45-50 kts earlier, and it almost looks like it's starting to leave the upper high behind. The advisory even pointed to a slight increase in shear and the radar presentation does not look as good as a few hours ago.

At least someone else can agree with me. This thing is not intensifying it is weakening and it is a good trend that has happened almost magically the last ten years. I was mentioning it in earlier pages on this thread and the models thread. I almost know these things are going to turn and it seems to be a lot more of them recently have been dieing out for what seems to be no apparent reason. They show strong structure, in good environments, and perfect sea temperatures but still find a way to fall apart. I remember as a kid these storms would fire up and yes a lot of them would turn away but that has not been the case recently. It is good for the US and people in the Atlantic but just odd at the same time.

I do not think this is in a weakening trend, nor is it for 'no apparant reason'. The system has very likely weakened slightly from earlier, and will probably hold steady for about the next 12 hours or so. The environment is by no means perfect either, there is 10 kts of shear as analyzed by NHC and showing up on CIMSS, in addition to lingering dry air to the north. It has become less organized in the last few hours, with reason, and in all likelihood is probably temporary if it can fight off the shear in the short term.

trust me, your interpretation is incorrect, Tarheel and Hammy

My interpretation is merely that it may have temporarily been stronger than estimated earlier and has probably ceased it's immediate strengthening.

As an aside, does anybody know where I can find the Saint Martin radar?

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

latest ASCAT shows winds of 30 kts (though likely missed the inner core). More than likely the NHC estimate is correct but it may have been 45-50 kts earlier, and it almost looks like it's starting to leave the upper high behind. The advisory even pointed to a slight increase in shear and the radar presentation does not look as good as a few hours ago.

At least someone else can agree with me. This thing is not intensifying it is weakening and it is a good trend that has happened almost magically the last ten years. I was mentioning it in earlier pages on this thread and the models thread. I almost know these things are going to turn and it seems to be a lot more of them recently have been dieing out for what seems to be no apparent reason. They show strong structure, in good environments, and perfect sea temperatures but still find a way to fall apart. I remember as a kid these storms would fire up and yes a lot of them would turn away but that has not been the case recently. It is good for the US and people in the Atlantic but just odd at the same time.

I do not think this is in a weakening trend, nor is it for 'no apparant reason'. The system has very likely weakened slightly from earlier, and will probably hold steady for about the next 12 hours or so. The environment is by no means perfect either, there is 10 kts of shear as analyzed by NHC and showing up on CIMSS, in addition to lingering dry air to the north. It has become less organized in the last few hours, with reason, and in all likelihood is probably temporary if it can fight off the shear in the short term.

So, we went from RI talk from the NHC to now holding steady talk at best? I think that is kind of out of the blue. I think this is a weakening trend and I'll stick by it. I think in my OPINION that this thing will hit PR as a weak TS. It stands a chance to strengthen past that yes but for people in PR in my OPINION I think they dodged a bullet. This thing was looking poised earlier to take off and never did. The dry air to me seems to be a minimal problem and it probably was the shear so I can agree there. Just happens to show up at the right time and the right place because people in PR needed it.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Here is the radar I posted earlier

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1413156571

Better quality than the one you gave me earlier.

[Evil Jeremy]

It stands a chance to strengthen past that yes but for people in PR in my OPINION I think they dodged a bullet. This thing was looking poised earlier to take off and never did.

You can not possibly say that anyone has "dodged a bullet" until the storm is in the history books (which I don't think has happened yet), OPINION or not.

NHC, models still forecast strengthening, possibily rapidly. What you're doing isn't just making observations, it's spreading misinformation since you have no facts to back anything up.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

It stands a chance to strengthen past that yes but for people in PR in my OPINION I think they dodged a bullet. This thing was looking poised earlier to take off and never did.

You can not possibly say that anyone has "dodged a bullet" until the storm is in the history books (which I don't think has happened yet), OPINION or not.

NHC, models still forecast strengthening, possibily rapidly. What you're doing isn't just making observations, it's spreading misinformation since you have no facts to back anything up.

I am not spreading anything I have said it is my opinion of what will happen I did not say it was set in stone and even said I CAN BE WRONG.

[MGC]

After looking at the radar and sat loop, I can only conclude that it appears that Gonzalo is getting better organized. Radar shows a partial eyewall on the north side of the circulation center. I would expect the TS to be near 60mph when it begins to traverse the islands in the morning....MGC

[ozonepete]

Why are you guys are going crazy about whether this is deteriorating into a weak mess or rapidly increasing into an inevitable major hurricane? From the satellite presentation alone it seems like it is getting better organized. Although I said in my last post that the satellite presentation had become a little ragged, I also said that we'd have to see where it went from there. Sure looks like it's getting a better CDO since then...

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Why are you guys are going crazy about whether this is deteriorating into a weak mess or rapidly increasing into an inevitable major hurricane? From the satellite presentation alone it seems like it is getting better organized. Although I said in my last post that the satellite presentation had become a little ragged, I also said that we'd have to see where it went from there. Sure looks like it's getting a better CDO since then...

I was not going crazy.... I already am

By the way is it too late to switch sides on this debate. I MAY of been WRONG.

[ozonepete]

Why are you guys are going crazy about whether this is deteriorating into a weak mess or rapidly increasing into an inevitable major hurricane? From the satellite presentation alone it seems like it is getting better organized. Although I said in my last post that the satellite presentation had become a little ragged, I also said that we'd have to see where it went from there. Sure looks like it's getting a better CDO since then...

I was not going crazy.... I already am

By the way is it too late to switch sides on this debate. I MAY of been WRONG.

Lol. In the end we are usually wrong or a little bit right.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Why are you guys are going crazy about whether this is deteriorating into a weak mess or rapidly increasing into an inevitable major hurricane? From the satellite presentation alone it seems like it is getting better organized. Although I said in my last post that the satellite presentation had become a little ragged, I also said that we'd have to see where it went from there. Sure looks like it's getting a better CDO since then...

I was not going crazy.... I already am

By the way is it too late to switch sides on this debate. I MAY of been WRONG.

Lol. In the end we are usually wrong or a little bit right.

We are almost always wrong at least us NON meteorologists. Looks like I see an eye forming so maybe it was just taking all that time to adjust itself some.

[Hammy]

I stand by what I said that earlier it was less organized than it had been during the afternoon. However, there is this little development: comparing the coordinates on Barbados map where the center is at, and finding the same point on satellite...

Why are you guys are going crazy about whether this is deteriorating into a weak mess or rapidly increasing into an inevitable major hurricane?

Blame the storm for being so indecisive

Either way, it will probably stair-step in intensity, rather than gradually strengthen, given that it's still not in 100% ideal conditions, maybe go up 5kts here and there and then hold for a few hours before going up again. Given the models, it looks like this should change by the time it passes the islands unless it runs into Hispaniola.

[tolakram]

Live IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=18&lon=-59&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=10

[AJC3]

As an aside, does anybody know where I can find the Saint Martin radar?

Unavailable.

It may be down for maintenance, like the one in Curacao, but whatever the case is, there isn't even a link to it on the Netherland Antilles meteo agency's web page right now.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Anyone else notice that the models were initialized well above where this storm is at now? Is that common? Seems to already be below all the forecast models.

[AJC3]

Anyone else notice that the models were initialized well above where this storm is at now? Is that common? Seems to already be below all the forecast models.

Not at all. the H85 vortex is initialized pretty reasonably on the GFS and CMC, both of which have a 06Z position near or a little north of Guadeloupe. Certainly not "well north" of Gonzalo's current position.