ATL: GONZALO - Models

#141 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:52 pm

18Z GFS ramps it up once it makes the turn to the north, north of the islands.

#142 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:56 pm

TARHEELPROGRAMMER wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This is NOT a fish storm...it is going to hit land.

Also that 959mb low is Fay?

By fish I mean the US Mainland and I do feel for the people in the Caribbean Islands. At least according to the models right?

Well then we have wildly different views of the word "fish". As for nothing since Katrina...

Rita and Wilma were cat 3+ at landfall. Ike was clearly a major impact in Texas. Irene caused devastation in Vermont. Sandy caused massive devastation in New England. The US has been rather lucky since 2005 but it hasn't been without impacts.

#143 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:59 pm

GFS down to 979MB at 96 hours heading NNE well NE of the Bahamas and north of the Caribbean islands. Bermuda at risk :eek:

#144 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 5:09 pm

18Z GFS looks like nearly a direct hit on Bermuda in 5 days by a formidable cane:

#145 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:45 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC MON OCT 13 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO (AL082014) 20141013 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141013 0000 141013 1200 141014 0000 141014 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 59.7W 16.8N 61.8W 17.7N 63.8W 18.8N 65.6W
BAMD 16.5N 59.7W 16.9N 61.6W 17.8N 63.4W 19.2N 65.1W
BAMM 16.5N 59.7W 17.0N 61.8W 18.0N 63.7W 19.4N 65.4W
LBAR 16.5N 59.7W 17.0N 61.9W 17.9N 64.2W 19.2N 66.4W
SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 58KTS 66KTS
DSHP 40KTS 49KTS 58KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141015 0000 141016 0000 141017 0000 141018 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.4N 67.1W 23.1N 68.8W 26.0N 67.5W 31.0N 62.2W
BAMD 20.8N 66.7W 23.8N 68.3W 26.9N 66.9W 32.2N 62.0W
BAMM 21.0N 66.7W 24.0N 68.0W 27.0N 66.9W 32.0N 62.0W
LBAR 20.8N 68.1W 23.6N 70.1W 26.4N 69.6W 27.0N 65.9W
SHIP 75KTS 94KTS 105KTS 108KTS
DSHP 75KTS 94KTS 105KTS 108KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 57.9W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 55.9W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

#146 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS looks like nearly a direct hit on Bermuda in 5 days by a formidable cane:

That blocking ridge would send it due north into Atlantic Canada? What are the 500mb heights?

#147 Postby **Alyono** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:05 pm

0Z MU has Gonzalo at 963mb in 4 and a half days heading for Bermuda

Hammy · #148 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:10 pm

The next Euro run should be interesting now that we not only have a classified system, but there is actual measured data to put into it from the recon flight earlier.

#149 Postby **MGC** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:17 pm

I'm hedging the models shift to the west a bit.....MGC

#150 Postby **Fego** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:48 pm

Dry air intrusion or an eye feature again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... /swir0.gif

TARHEELPROGRAMMER · #151 Postby **TARHEELPROGRAMMER** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:49 pm

Fego wrote:Dry air intrusion or an eye feature again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... /swir0.gif

Eye feature is my guess. What do you think?

#152 Postby **Fego** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:11 am

Ragged eye.

Hammy · #153 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:24 am

Could be a mid-level eye, the surface feature looks to be very slightly to the southwest.

Edit: Euro running, I think the intensity on this run can be tossed given that it initializes it as a 1012mb wave and takes five days to strengthen it to just below the current initial intensity :roll:

#154 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:14 am

"King Euro" or Monkey Model? In fairness though, its an established "given" that the EURO just does not do well with small features. Until Gonzalo beefs up a little, the Euro will see it as a cluster of thunderstorms LOL

#155 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:29 am

06z HWRF has Gonzalo becoming a hurricane shortly after noon.

Frank2 · #156 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:20 am

Last night's ECMWF shows the system getting caught in a COL-type area NW of Puerto Rico, with the trough not nearly as deep as the GFS showed - any thoughts from the pro mets?

Frank

#157 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:11 am

GFS nails Bermuda again on the 06Z. Down to 960MB on the GFS High resolution. That's a significant cane even for Hurricane-prone Bermuda :eek:

ronjon · #158 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:36 am

Down to 941 mb on 06z GFDL at 126 hrs approaching Bermuda!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2014101306-gonzalo08l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

#159 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:21 pm

12Z ECMWF looks like a intensifying 971MB cane approaching Bermuda on day 5. :eek:

#160 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:37 pm

EC at 965mb as it passes just west of Bermuda

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