ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

By the way, Antigua's airport has not reported its conditions in 2 hrs now, I guess they lost power.

[NDG]

If the high-density observations on the reconnaissance holds true this could be a storm deepening at a rate of 2-3 millibars by the hour. Given the storm's small size though its passage over Antigua may actually prove to be somewhat disruptive as we saw with Bertha earlier this year.

That was due to atmospheric conditions and not because of the terrain with Bertha.

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, could post the latest best track please?

[tolakram]

Is this just going to be another fish?

You can look at the NHC track map to see where they think it will recurve. A fish is a storm that doesn't hit anyone and recurves harmlessly out to sea.

[NDG]

Gonzalo right over Antigua.

[tolakram]

Just getting in range of the faster scanning satellite view.

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[tolakram]

Visible hurricane sector. Looks to be organizing rapidly.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=18&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7

[NDG]

St Kitts next, weather will be going downhill pretty fast as Gonzalo approaches them this morning, hope that it takes a jog more to the north over the next few hours.

[msbee]

if it jogs to the north, then St Maarten gets a direct hit.. not god for us unless it seriously starts going above 20 north.. I don't see that happening

[NDG]

Gonzalo wrapping & tightening up really nice now on radar.

[cycloneye]

Still moving west.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Still moving west.

Right! and moving very slowly.

[TJRE]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/

LSU dry air sat loop
speaks for itself



CIMSS 500mb steering guidance ATM
would argue for some west movement.....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/




MIMIC GIF
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_08L/webManager/mainpage.html

[SouthDadeFish]

From radar, it looks like the smaller inner "eye" is being replaced by a larger outer eyewall, which now appears 2/3 complete (open to the S).

[adam0983]

I am reporting live for St Martin. We have had occasional rain squalls and winds are around 25 to 30 mph and the sun has come out from time to time.


MIMIC GIF
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_08L/webManager/mainpage.html[/quote]

[abajan]

Confirmation that the center of circulation passed directly over Antigua:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml

Seems they may have recorded a wind gust of 102 mph!
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.shtml

[adam0983]

What time frame should be the worst for st martin. The weather is overcast with some showers. Some hotels are putting shutters up now and the hotels are bringing in lounge chairs and tables

[msbee]

current St Maarten weather 10 AM Juliana Airport Met Office
barometer steady wind NE 23 MPH light rain showers
wind definitely picking up around my house

[MGC]

TS Gonzalo looks to be intensifying at a good clip this morning. Would not be surprised if hurricane intensity is reached later this afternoon. Still looks to be tracking just north or due west, so be on guard in the Virgin Islands and PR......MGC

[cycloneye]

Next in line St Barts? Here is one of the Web Cams from there. You can see many more if you go to my signature below where it says at red click here that takes you to the first post of the Caribbean - Central America thread.