ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83,with the extensive damage that some of the islands have is possible that at post season analysis Gonzalo is bumped up as a hurricane earlier than when NHC did at 5 PM EDT on 10/13/14? See the damage at sticky thread.

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83,with the extensive damage that some of the islands have is possible that at post season analysis Gonzalo is bumped up as a hurricane earlier than when NHC did at 5 PM EDT on 10/13/14? See the damage at sticky thread.

I think it is quite possible. The sustained wind of 58 kt (likely 10-min, supporting 64 kt after conversion to 1-min sustained) at Barbuda near 1400Z yesterday makes me think that hurricane intensity may be first analyzed at 1200Z (before the first landfall), or 1400Z (65 kt at landfall with 60 kt at synoptic time).

The first Recon data supporting hurricane intensity was around 1700Z.

[beoumont]

="supercane4867"]The chance of Gonzalo not hitting Bermuda as a strong hurricane at this point is slim to none

Considering the average 72 hour forecast error the past two years averages 125 miles or so (which is a great and steady improvement over the years) the odds of the central core of this hurricane passing directly over any point along the forecast track three days+ out is quite a bit larger than "slim to none". It might pass over the island; but it just as likely will pass 50-150 miles on either side. Time will tell.
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[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 65.2W AT 14/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 339 NM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 721 NM S OF
BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115
KT. THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC TODAY... AND REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY...AND POSSIBLY BECOME A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 61W-67W.
SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Gustywind]

From SSD...


14/1745 UTC 20.9N 65.5W T5.0/5.0 GONZALO
14/1145 UTC 20.0N 64.6W T4.5/4.5 GONZALO

[cycloneye]

We got the second major of 2014 season!

18z Best Track:

AL, 08, 2014101418, , BEST, 0, 208N, 656W, 100, 971, HU

[Evil Jeremy]

This is looking very bad for Bermuda. Hopefully Gonzalo pulls an Igor in the coming days. My prayers to all those affected in the NE Caribbean.

[Alyono]

speaking of Igor, looking at things, Gonzalo may be worse for Newfoundland than Igor was

[Gustywind]

We got the second major of 2014 season!

18z Best Track:

AL, 08, 2014101418, , BEST, 0, 208N, 656W, 100, 971, HU

Simply impressive remember there's 2 days ago that was guest with a small 1009 hpa as TS and now 971 hpa 48 h after... what a trip for Gonzalo!

[CrazyC83]

speaking of Igor, looking at things, Gonzalo may be worse for Newfoundland than Igor was

Agreed, since the northern eyewall would run right over the most populated part of the island. Unless it bends back left, then Juan becomes the comparison...

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm thinking we might end up with the first name retired in quite a while with Gonzalo if it hits Bermuda and Atlantic Canada as forecast. Not to mention all the damage in the islands.

[CrazyC83]

Is it too soon for a local info page for Bermuda and Atlantic Canada? How many members do we have there?

[cycloneye]

Is it too soon for a local info page for Bermuda and Atlantic Canada? How many members do we have there?

I know about a member that lives in New Brunswick and that is Hybridstorm_November2001.I know that we have a member in Bermuda but don't remember the nickname. Let's wait 24 hours to see how the track and intensity does and then a sticky thread is up.

[supercane4867]

We got the second major of 2014 season!

18z Best Track:

AL, 08, 2014101418, , BEST, 0, 208N, 656W, 100, 971, HU

971mb is the highest pressure I've seen for an intensifying major hurricane in a while

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree Cycloneye it is wait and see right now. A Bermuda hit, or at least a close approach, looks all but certain at this point. As for a Nova Scotia impact it could go either way, a long range Newfoundland impact looks like a safer bet at this point. The track will have to shift a lot further west before I'll feel any major impacts here up against the border with Maine, of course as I recall the model clusters once had Arthur hitting Newfoundland and perhaps eastern Nova Scotia and thus bypassing most of the region we know how that worked out.

[JahJa]

Hey guys,

I am in Bermuda. As much damage as Fay caused to the island it seems that it was a blessing in disguise because in recent years people seem to have become complacent with the numerous Tropical Storm warnings we have received accompanied by a very nice sunny beach day outside. So apart from that and how quickly Fay seemed to develop, it really seemed to have caught everyone off guard.

The good news is that everyone is taking it serious and preparations have begun although I should say that we are still cleaning up from Fay. There are many roofs that were damaged from Fay and power was cut off to over 90% of the island at one point, thankfully no one lost their life and power has been restored to most people. The worry I see is that there is a lot of debris and home damage left from Fay and I am doubtful that they will be able to clean it up in time. I will be sure to keep everyone up to date.

By trade I work in insurance but I must say that I really do find this website absolutely fascinating and whilst I may not post much I do read the forums a lot!

[northjaxpro]

Hey guys,

I am in Bermuda. As much damage as Fay caused to the island it seems that it was a blessing in disguise because in recent years people seem to have become complacent with the numerous Tropical Storm warnings we have received accompanied by a very nice sunny beach day outside. So apart from that and how quickly Fay seemed to develop, it really seemed to have caught everyone off guard.

The good news is that everyone is taking it serious and preparations have begun although I should say that we are still cleaning up from Fay. There are many roofs that were damaged from Fay and power was cut off to over 90% of the island at one point, thankfully no one lost their life and power has been restored to most people. The worry I see is that there is a lot of debris and home damage left from Fay and I am doubtful that they will be able to clean it up in time. I will be sure to keep everyone up to date.

By trade I work in insurance but I must say that I really do find this website absolutely fascinating and whilst I may not post much I do read the forums a lot!

Well, it will definitely be a very close call in terms of a direct landfall with Gonzalo JahJa. It appears the eye(center) will get within at least 100 miles of the island , and that alone still will give the island some very serious impacts with likely hurricane force wind gusts. It is currently forecast to past just west of the island, but that could change. I am praying for you and all on Bermuda concerning this extremely dangerous hurricane approaching in a couple of days. Continue the preparations and be very safe there!

[hurricaneCW]

For Bermuda the worst case is Gonzalo passing just to the west as the island would be hit by the strongest winds on the east side. Either the storm passes to the east which seems unlikely or it passes far enough west for them to miss the core, somewhat more likely. It could also roll right over the island directly which I would put at a 20% chance right now.

My chances are 20% direct hit
10% Goes just east of Bermuda
5% Over 50 miles east of Bermuda
50% Just west of Bermuda
15% Over 50 miles west of Bermuda.

[msbee]

JahJa , I am hoping Bermuda will be spared from this cane. It did more than enough damage to my island even though it was only classified as a CAT 1. IMHO it was much stronger than that.
I hope it passes you safely.
Good luck!

[northjaxpro]

For Bermuda the worst case is Gonzalo passing just to the west as the island would be hit by the strongest winds on the east side. Either the storm passes to the east which seems unlikely or it passes far enough west for them to miss the core, somewhat more likely. It could also roll right over the island directly which I would put at a 20% chance right now.

My chances are 20% direct hit
10% Goes just east of Bermuda
5% Over 50 miles east of Bermuda
50% Just west of Bermuda
15% Over 50 miles west of Bermuda.

Well, you just don't know yet. Fay went directly over the island, so definitely we don't want to see a repeat of that there with Gonzalo. I had been hoping that Gonzalo would only give a "glancing blow" to Bermuda and miss them to the east, but that possibility is growing more unlikely now. Maybe the core will stay just far enough west hopefully for the island to escape the most devastating impacts, but they will see significant effects nonetheless as explained already in this scenario.