EPAC: TRUDY - Remnants

[supercane4867]

EP, 92, 2014101412, , BEST, 0, 110N, 910W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater is up

[gatorcane]

This should be a real interesting one for those in the GOM as it looks like it has a decent chance of crossing over into the BOC with good model support for that. Latest GFS run actually has it crossed over by day 4.

Luis, is this one of those times we should open up an "EPAC:Invest 92E Model Runs" thread so we can posted model runs due to the possible GOM threat with this invest?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 14 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
Guatemala. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for continued development of this system during the next several
days while the low moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[gatorcane]

12Z BAMs:

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

EP, 92, 2014101418, , BEST, 0, 112N, 919W, 20, 1008, DB

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro crosses it over into the BOC by day 5, from the SW. Model consensus is growing on this crossover event. Big question is what does it do once in the BOC?

[Kingarabian]

I think the Euro was showing it retrograding back into South America.

[gatorcane]

I think the Euro was showing it retrograding back into South America.

12Z Euro has it heading ENE over the South-central Gulf just north of the Yucatan. Looks like a large system, maybe subtropical?

At 216 hours below below moving ENE, then it moves E then ESE towards the Eastern Yucatan area / NW GOM at 240 hours but very long-range and will likely change. Not sure I buy into that.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Is there any cold fronts coming down that would cause this to really take off ENE through the straights and totally miss Florida/ I can't recall the name but a few years back there was one that became a cat 1 and got DR & PR moving from west to east verses the norm east to west.

[Kingarabian]

All I know is that waters in the Caribbean are pretty toasty if it were to take off ENE.

[northjaxpro]

Is there any cold fronts coming down that would cause this to really take off ENE through the straights and totally miss Florida/ I can't recall the name but a few years back there was one that became a cat 1 and got DR & PR moving from west to east verses the norm east to west.

The AO and NAO currently in a negative phase, along with positive PNA, deep troughing across the Eastern CONUS is anticipated in the next 7-10 days. I would probably suspect that strong cool front will be deep into the SE U.S. and to the GOM by next week this time. I am thinking what ever becomes of anything down in the BOC/Southern GOM will be frontal in nature. Could be wrong, just my educated guess. We shall see if anything materializes down there.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Is there any cold fronts coming down that would cause this to really take off ENE through the straights and totally miss Florida/ I can't recall the name but a few years back there was one that became a cat 1 and got DR & PR moving from west to east verses the norm east to west.

The AO and NAO currently in a negative phase, along with positive PNA, deep troughing across the Eastern CONUS is anticipated in the next 7-10 days. I would probably suspect that strong cool front will be deep into the SE U.S. and to the GOM by next week this time. I am thinking what ever becomes of anything down in the BOC/Southern GOM will be frontal in nature. Could be wrong, just my educated guess. We shall see if anything materializes down there.

So a possible large area of stretched out rain and some wind.

[northjaxpro]

Is there any cold fronts coming down that would cause this to really take off ENE through the straights and totally miss Florida/ I can't recall the name but a few years back there was one that became a cat 1 and got DR & PR moving from west to east verses the norm east to west.

The AO and NAO currently in a negative phase, along with positive PNA, deep troughing across the Eastern CONUS is anticipated in the next 7-10 days. I would probably suspect that strong cool front will be deep into the SE U.S. and to the GOM by next week this time. I am thinking what ever becomes of anything down in the BOC/Southern GOM will be frontal in nature. Could be wrong, just my educated guess. We shall see if anything materializes down there.

So a possible large area of stretched out rain and some wind.

That's what I am possibly thinking could be the scenario yes.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET supports crossover too and shows a 1007MB low in the SE BOC at 144 hours:

[gatorcane]

Here is what the 12Z Euro shows at 192 hours showing a 1002MB system, maybe frontal in nature, can't tell. It doesn't seem conditions will be ideal in the GOM, so both the GFS and ECMWF show large, spread out systems. Of course, first we need the system to cross over first which is not an easy task for systems crossing over from the EPAC over that part of Mexico.

[gatorcane]

Latest saved vis loop shows our invest (which could crossover into the BOC this weekend) coming together:

[Yellow Evan]

Looks promising, but if it does not deepen quickly, could end our hurricane streak.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 18Z GFS has another crossover run with the system moving slowly NE in the BOC through 168 hours getting down to 1002MB.

Looks like a sheared system, maybe even frontal in nature by 192 hours not moving much.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 14 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of
Guatemala are showing signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by
late this week. The low is forecast to move slowly northwestward
toward the coast of southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain