CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

When was the last time Hawaii was hit by a hurricane?

[CrazyC83]

When was the last time Hawaii was hit by a hurricane?

Iniki 1992 (Category 4). The Big Island? No hurricane hits in the satellite era.

[Alyono]

probably looking at a very early Saturday landfall

[gatorcane]

When was the last time Hawaii was hit by a hurricane?

Iniki 1992 (Category 4). The Big Island? No hurricane hits in the satellite era.

Wow pretty amazing. So if this were to hit the big island, a rare event indeed. I wonder how prepared they are in the big island for a hurricane hit?

[Kingarabian]

When was the last time Hawaii was hit by a hurricane?

Iniki 1992 (Category 4). The Big Island? No hurricane hits in the satellite era.

Wow pretty amazing. So if this were to hit the big island, a rare event indeed. I wonder how prepared they are in the big island for a hurricane hit?

They better be prepared this time around.

HILO BETTER BE PREPARED. Most of the Big Island's population resides there.

[Kingarabian]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[HurricaneRyan]

How ironic is it that we might finally have a Hurricane Ana...but it won't be from the Atlantic side?

[JtSmarts]

[wxman57]

They've moved up landfall from Monday morning to Saturday morning. May still be a little earlier than that, but that's a much better track from CPHC.

[Kingarabian]

Closer to Oahu this time around.

[gatorcane]

Hope they are preparing in Hawaii and not assuming it will miss or weaken at the last second like so many of them do. This means business. Could see impacts to multiple islands on that track.

[JtSmarts]

I wonder if Cantore is heading to Hawaii?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST TUE OCT 14 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANA CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING OVERSHOOTING
CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE LLCC. LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ALSO INDICATE AN INTENSIFICATION TREND...WITH FIX AGENCIES
RANGING FROM 3.0/45 KT TO 4.0/65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY SPLITS
THE MIDDLE OF THE FIXES...AND IS SET AT 55 KT.

THE FORWARD MOTION OF ANA HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07 KT. ANA
IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST ANALYSES DEPICT STRONG
SOUTHERLY SHEAR BETWEEN ANA AND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...DUE TO
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW ALOFT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THE
RIDGE NORTH OF ANA. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN
FORECASTING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE LOW ALOFT. WITH THE
LOW RETREATING...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ESTABLISHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ANA THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ON AN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS...WHILE ALSO
INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN ANA AND THE PASSING TROUGH INTRODUCES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
TO THE TRACK FORECAST AT THE LONGER RANGES. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...WHICH
NUDGES IT TOWARD THE LATEST TVCN GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS AND THE TREND
PRESENTED BY THE ICON CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR ANA TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT PEAKING AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INTENSITY ON DAYS 2 AND 3. SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A SIMILAR TREND...WITH ANA GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGING SHEAR PROFILE...THE INJECTION
OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...AND MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 14.0N 144.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 14.4N 145.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 14.7N 146.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.0N 148.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 15.6N 149.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.0N 152.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 18.5N 155.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 20.0N 157.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[supercane4867]

Wonder why they are still not willing to forecast anything beyond a Cat.1 with shear being nonexistent in the short term

[Alyono]

SHIPS

However, SHIPS has increasing shear from the north as this nears Hawaii. That would make sense as the CPHC forecast is so far east of the MU forecast that the CPHC position is in the outflow of MU. I doubt that is real shear

[hurricaneCW]

I don't know the islands have always seemed to luck out whenever a system threatens so I'm going to assume the same happens again with either a near miss or it weakening right before landfall.

[Kingarabian]

Currently, there does some to be moderate shear over the system.

Right now the CPHC keeps shifting the track left and right. So I'm confused.

Also the CPHC didn't put any warning for the Hawaiian Islands in the discussion. I'm assuming they don't think it'll be much of an interest anymore for the Hawaiian Islands?

[gatorcane]

Here is the 12Z ECMWF. That's around a 1001MB tropical storm SE of the big island which passes by to the south between 72 hours and 96 hours. Seems to be on the weak side:

[supercane4867]

18z GFS has Ana making landfall directly over Hilo as a hurricane

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has Ana making landfall directly over Hilo as a hurricane

Also brings it down to 976mb.