ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

btw, if anyone is interested in local news in Bermuda check out http://www.bernews.com they are usually pretty good and they have already started a live blog with regard to the hurricane.

Thanks JahJa for providing the link. Again, praying for you and all on the island there!

[TheAustinMan]

With no scheduled advisory until 11 pm, I wonder if we will get a TCU or special advisory?

I'd guess that that would only happen if the NHC were considering Gonzalo to have ramped up to Category 4 intensity at this point in time.

[ozonepete]

There has never been a Cat 5 in October outside of the Caribbean. All the known late season Cat 5's (1846, 1924, Nov 1932, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma) reached such intensity in the western Caribbean.

I didn't know that. I wonder if Gonzalo knows? Anyway it certainly has a shot given the TCHP and DEPTH of the 26C Isotherm. There's enough energy to do it for this smaller sized system.

[Hammy]

Climatology can be used to figure out what might happen in the future, but it's sort of meaningless when you have something playing out in real time such as this. Concerning the satellite appearance, more than likely it would already improve if it were to strengthen to that degree, so what it looks like now is also sort of meaningless (especially given the bursting convection and small eye making the eye seem less clear than it is.)

[cycloneye]

btw, if anyone is interested in local news in Bermuda check out http://www.bernews.com they are usually pretty good and they have already started a live blog with regard to the hurricane.

Hi. You can post all about how things are in Bermuda such as preparations,news,observations etc. Go to the link below that sends you to the thread with sticky at the top of this forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116864&p=2420624#p2420624

[ScottNAtlanta]

btw, if anyone is interested in local news in Bermuda check out http://www.bernews.com they are usually pretty good and they have already started a live blog with regard to the hurricane.

They also make a good point in that link that "Fay was a 70mph storm...Gonzalo could be double that"

[EquusStorm]

The 1924 Cuba hurricane was estimated to be at category five intensity at 22.4*N as it struck western Cuba from the south, which looks to be the northernmost category five on record in October, depending on the exact location of the 1846 storm. So Gonzalo would, in addition to being the only open Atlantic October category five, probably also be the northernmost and easternmost storm of this intensity in October if it did manage to strengthen to this point.

[Siker]

Personally I think he's got a slim chance at Cat 5, but has a pretty good chance at becoming the strongest storm since Igor.

[msbee]

msbee, how is everything with you? I pray all is as well as can be in the storm's aftermath in your region.

Hi
I am ok..thanks for asking. We lost many trees in our garden and have been cleaning up all day.
St Maarten got hit very hard though. We had CAT 2 winds here and there has been a lot of destruction.
Many trees down, roofs gone, and many boats sunk. And sadly one fatality.

[cycloneye]

btw, if anyone is interested in local news in Bermuda check out http://www.bernews.com they are usually pretty good and they have already started a live blog with regard to the hurricane.

Hi. You can post all about how things are in Bermuda such as preparations,news,observations etc. Go to the link below that sends you to the thread with sticky at the top of this forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116864&p=2420624#p2420624

I forgot to mention that the Bermuda News link has been added to the sticky thread at the top of forum as the many posts this thread has it tends for things to get lost.

[supercane4867]

00z best track has 110kt for now

AL, 08, 2014101500, , BEST, 0, 218N, 662W, 110, 957, HU

[CrazyC83]

Should be a Cat 4 soon if it isn't already. The next forecast should be interesting...

[cycloneye]

952.1mbs.

[CrazyC83]

Dropped another 2-3 mb in about 90 minutes.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Not to be alarmist or anything but is it possible this could reach Cat 5 if it is indeed strengthening as quickly as it seems?

It is almost about at Cat 4 strength now at the rate it is strengthening currently.

Well, with the conditions being very ideal for strengthening in the short term, it is conceivable that it could reach Cat 5 up to about 48 hours on its approach to Bermuda.

looks a 105 knots system atm would not think it will peak above 115 knots in its lifetime. Talking Cat5 is is unrealistic hype.

It's up to 110kts according to best track... Pressure continues to drop now down to 952mb. It still has another good 24 hours or so to strengthen...

[abajan]

looks a 105 knots system atm would not think it will peak above 115 knots in its lifetime. Cat5 is is unrealistic hype.

Yeah, I'm kinda thinking that myself. I'm guessing it will peak at about 150 mph or even 155 mph. But of course I could be wrong. It's just that Cat 5s are such a rare breed.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bahamaswx]

It's up to 110kts according to best track... Pressure continues to drop now down to 952mb. It still has another good 24 hours or so to strengthen...

That 952mb is extrapolated. It's likely more like 955.

[sponger]

Now that is a nice looking storm. If anyone can weather this intact it will be Bermuda. Here is the surf forecast from the Navy. It also gives you a decent idea of the unofficial track forecast https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ww3_atlantic&prod=swlwvht&dtg=2014101418&set=SeaState

[abajan]

Now that is a nice looking storm. If anyone can weather this intact it will be Bermuda. Here is the surf forecast from the Navy. It also gives you a decent idea of the unofficial track forecast https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ww3_atlantic&prod=swlwvht&dtg=2014101418&set=SeaState

Firefox is warning me that that link is an untrusted connection.

[ozonepete]

looks a 105 knots system atm would not think it will peak above 115 knots in its lifetime. Talking Cat5 is is unrealistic hype.

Lol I don't think anyone here at all has said this will be a cat 5. We are just having a scientific discussion about whether it could reach cat 5. Two very different things. And I agree with most here who've said it's not likely but yet it is possible.