ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sean in New Orleans]

Impressive October system!!

[FireRat]

What an impressive storm! It's been a while alright, been only viewing the WPAC these last few years.
I really hope Bermuda is taking this one seriously, it's gonna be a dangerous shave to say the least, if not severe impact. Good thing it's not very large! A wobble could make all the difference for the island with this one!

[abajan]

Recon will find cat4 120 knot winds now.

Surprise! The MSW are still 125 mph.

[Gustywind]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 67.3W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

[abajan]

Think it peaked at 120 knots.

When? According to the advisories, the maximum sustained winds have not increased since 11 PM when they were 125 mph. (120 knots = 138 mph)

[beoumont]

Past 2 hours satellite eye has appeared to have wobbled left, moved at 300 degees from 8:45 z to 10:37 z. Wobble, wobble. My guess it is torquing left, temporarily as it deepens or organizies further.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-68&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[SouthDadeFish]

Gonzalo is still deepening according to recon data. What a beautiful little storm with such a tight pressure gradient!

[cycloneye]

If there is some good news for Bermuda is that an eyewall replacement cycle is going on according to recon and it would not be more stronger because of that,hopefully.

[CrazyC83]

Recon shows strengthening DESPITE an ERC...surprising! I would say it is 120 kt right now based on the 116 kt SFMR earlier. Pressure also fell this morning...

[supercane4867]

Recon measured the inner eye to be only 2NM wide, the smallest worldwide since Wilma

[cycloneye]

Cat 4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 68.0W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

[Macrocane]

Who would've thought? It's been a more interesting season than 2013, I can't believe the Atlantic spent 3 years without a cat 4.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks to have already peaked, but who would've thought we would even manage to produce a Cat.4 hurricane this season and in October! Looks like it might stay far enough west of Bermuda that they will not experience the worst of it, they may not even get Hurricane-force winds knowing how compact of a hurricane it is.

[JahJa]

Excuse my ignorance......but what does it mean/how does it affect the hurricane if it has a smaller eye as opposed to a big one?

[OuterBanker]

Right now I'm praying that Gonzalo goes a bit more west. So far everyone has dodged a very dangerous bullet. I'm hoping that he slides more west and winds up between the Conus and Bermuda. Best case scenario.

[tolakram]

Looks to have already peaked, but who would've thought we would even manage to produce a Cat.4 hurricane this season and in October! Looks like it might stay far enough west of Bermuda that they will not experience the worst of it, they may not even get Hurricane-force winds knowing how compact of a hurricane it is.

I disagree. EWRC have generally led to the spreading out of the wind field and in numerous cases have resulted in an increased threat even though the magic Saffir Simpson number might be lower. One of the reasons I do not like the scale.

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[abajan]

Err ... not to "split hairs" but isn't 130 mph Cat 3?

[EquusStorm]

I can't decide whether it looks impressive or somewhat sickly. Certainly not a very symmetrical storm, but we got our first category four since 2011 and one of the smallest eyes I've ever seen, so Gonzalo is certainly gonna go down as a notable storm. Let's hope it's not notable because of destruction as well, though. That said, it looks to me like Gonzalo has peaked. The core structure appears to be struggling at the moment, and cloud tops appear to be warming.

Err ... not to "split hairs" but isn't 130 mph Cat 3?

Didn't they update the SSHS about a year or two ago to bring 130mph into the category four range for subsequent to better line up with the knot figure for said intensity?

[Alyono]

eyewall replacement. This is normal.