EPAC: TRUDY - Remnants

[Andrew92]

I've wondered for a while if this is possible, a system crossing from the EPAC over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and into the Bay of Campeche. It would be a quite rare path to say the last, but would such a storm, if it was moving fast enough, survive? I mean, if it can happen occasionally from the Atlantic into the EPAC, why not the other way around, in that location?

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM continues with the crossover idea like the GFS and ECMWF, but the NAVGEM is stronger and more consolidated:

[Yellow Evan]

I've wondered for a while if this is possible, a system crossing from the EPAC over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and into the Bay of Campeche. It would be a quite rare path to say the last, but would such a storm, if it was moving fast enough, survive? I mean, if it can happen occasionally from the Atlantic into the EPAC, why not the other way around, in that location?

-Andrew92

I have doubts that some crossovers in the 70s and 80s actually were TC's throughout. As for this system, I think there's too many mountains for this to cross over.

[gatorcane]

Signs of organization this evening...

[Kingarabian]

Folks, if there is a year for anything crazy and out of the ordinary to happen, this is year.

[TheStormExpert]

With the way the shaded formation region cuts off right along the Mexico coastline you have to assume this ends up in the BoC in some form which will possibly contribute to what may form down in the BoC next week.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a broad and ill-defined area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are somewhat conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form within this system over the
next few days. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
forms, shower activity is likely to spread northward or
northwestward toward and across the southwestern coast of Mexico
over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Franklin

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922014 10/15/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 43 49 57 60 62 61 60 59 57
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 43 49 57 41 31 28 27 30 25
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 37 44 52 40 31 28 27 31 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 5 2 10 5 8 11 15 19 20 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 1 0 0 -4 -1 3
SHEAR DIR 41 57 97 106 80 75 138 273 261 275 268 254 248
SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 162 162 162 159 160 162 159 157 155 153 151
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 8 7
700-500 MB RH 87 85 84 84 82 82 81 77 70 71 69 68 67
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 42 29 19 16 13 27 28 32 32 49 62 65 78
200 MB DIV 104 111 134 147 147 124 73 40 45 41 56 42 37
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -7 1 4 -1 2 1 0 -4
LAND (KM) 308 308 312 316 328 200 60 -105 -185 -94 -15 17 0
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.9 15.3 16.9 18.5 19.8 20.7 21.3 21.6
LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.8 93.5 94.2 94.9 96.2 97.1 97.6 97.7 97.5 97.2 97.2 97.2
STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1
HEAT CONTENT 9 10 13 16 18 25 36 44 22 33 37 21 42

[blp]

Good consensus this morning out of the models on development of something between the 5 - 7 day timeframe in BOC from the crossover remanants.

UKMet - Weak Development
NAVGEM - Strong Development
CMC -- Strong Development
Euro -- Moderate Development
GFS -- Moderate Development
FIM -- Weak Development

The Euro MJO forecast is jus now crossing into our basin and shows a moderate event for the next 14 days. So things are aligned for something to get going.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Looking at a nice blow up of storms in the BOC this morning.

[gatorcane]

Certainly seems a crossover is becoming more and more likely. This one could get interesting depending on the Upper-level conditions in the BOC. Over the next few days should see a gradual turn to the NW then North into SE Mexico.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like it will form and peak in the BoC, then quickly weaken as it tries to head North and East into the GoM probably due to strong Wind Shear.

My prediction is nothing more than a weak TS from this in the Bay of Campeche.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS crosses it over yet again and looks like a tropical storm in the BOC by day 6-7

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Extensive but disorganized shower activity continues in association
with an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Upper-level winds
are favorable for development, and a gradual consolidation of this
system into a tropical depression is possible over the next couple
of days as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms, shower
activity is likely to spread toward and across the southwestern
coast of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Franklin

[gatorcane]

Available 12Z guidance summary for the crossover from EPAC to BOC scenario so far which is look more and more like a possibility and something folks who live along the GOM should be keeping an eye on. With this crazy season, anything is possible!

GFS: 994MB Strong TS/Min CAT 1 cane heading NE in the GOM (10 day graphic below which shows 997MB):
NAVGEM: Strengthening 976MB CAT 2 cane heading NE in the GOM
GEM: 993MB cane but buries it in the BOC and turns it south into Mexico.

[blp]

12z UKmet is 1 mb stronger and has it in the BOC in 144hr. So another consistent run from the UKmet.

[gatorcane]

I am starting to wonder, is this a true crossover or are the models developing some energy that gets spun off from this invest over Mexico into the BOC, while this invest just keeps heading WNW or NW along the coast of SE Mexico?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

EP, 92, 2014101518, , BEST, 0, 110N, 980W, 25, 1008, DB

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro +72hr

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[N2FSU]

12Z Euro +120hr

crossing over into BOC, or piece of energy crossing over?

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