Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

^^ Now that's pretty good agreement we will see a BOC system in the next week..where it heads after is the question..

The GFS model sends it ENE across the Gulf and into Florida in the long-range while the ECMWF buries it in the BOC. The GFS just loves Florida and living up to the "Giving Florida Storms" name! One of these times though it will finally verify.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

^^ Now that's pretty good agreement we will see a BOC system in the next week..where it heads after is the question..

The GFS model sends it ENE across the Gulf and into Florida in the long-range while the ECMWF buries it in the BOC. The GFS just loves Florida. One of these times though it will finally verify.

Morning,

This is the time of year us in Florida watch anything late in the season form in this area. With the cold fronts coming down they tend to pick these up and drag them across Florida. The question is in what form and where across Florida.

[BigA]

NAVGEM now on board the crossover idea. So now many models are showing some form of it. But it's still a long ways out, so we'll have to see if the prediction persists.

[SFLcane]

Something in GOM will likely be frontal and very disorganized with rain for Florida. (IF) it even developes

[tropicwatch]

If something forms in the Bay of Campeche this time of year, they usually end up on the northern gulf coast anywhere from Mobile eastward. But there hasn't been anything usual about this year so far.

[caneman]

West Florida wouldn't be out of the question either.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows yet another crossover into the BOC. The crossover starts as little as 3 days from now and completes in about 36 or so where the system moves little in the BOC. Let's see what the ECMWF and other globals do.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro continues to show this crossing over into the BOC. We are discussing it in the EPAC 92E invest thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116860

[tolakram]

I don't think the idea of a true crossover has merit. There may be some vorticity that helps spin up an Atlantic storm, but I don't think there will be an actual crossover. I don't really know though.

So far 12Z euro is weaker, moving east at 192h.

[tolakram]

Vorticity spread out at 216. Low is just north of the YP.

[tolakram]

Gone at the end of the run, 240h. I'm guessing it moves inland over the YP without any development.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Gone at the end of the run, 240h. I'm guessing it moves inland over the YP without any development.

I saw that to but it will change at least 10 times. If it does form.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like all models still hinting at some sort of development in the BOC from some cross-over energy. Will it be pulled towards the ENE through the Gulf (GFS/NAVGEM) or pushed SE into Mexico (EURO/CMC) remains to be seen.

[CourierPR]

Looks like all models still hinting at some sort of development in the BOC from some cross-over energy. Will it be pulled towards the ENE through the Gulf (GFS/NAVGEM) or pushed SE into Mexico (EURO/CMC) remains to be seen.

Joe Bastardi tweeted to watch the southern Gulf next week for development.

[wxman57]

Euro has LOTS of cool, dry air racing SW into the BoC next week. Not good for TC development. More of a frontal low that moves inland into MX.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Euro has LOTS of cool, dry air racing SW into the BoC next week. Not good for TC development. More of a frontal low that moves inland into MX.

As per the Miami discussion on 10/15:
By
wesdnesday morning abundant mositure returns to South Florida from
the Gulf of Mexico with a gradual increase in showers and
thunderstorms over the area. However, lapse rates are not very
impressive, around -5 to -6 for 500-700mb.

I would say just have to watch if anything gets going down there next week but we all know nothing like the previous GFS runs will happen.

[WPBWeather]

Euro has LOTS of cool, dry air racing SW into the BoC next week. Not good for TC development. More of a frontal low that moves inland into MX.

As per the Miami discussion on 10/15:
By
wesdnesday morning abundant mositure returns to South Florida from
the Gulf of Mexico with a gradual increase in showers and
thunderstorms over the area. However, lapse rates are not very
impressive, around -5 to -6 for 500-700mb.

I would say just have to watch if anything gets going down there next week but we all know nothing like the previous GFS runs will happen.

The CPC also predicts (as of 10/14/14) that the climo in the BOC and environs hits the above average level for chances for tropical development starting 10/22/14 through the end of October. We will see what happens.

[gatorcane]

Just to let you know, some discussion on this possible EPAC crossover BOC system is being discussed in the EPAC invest thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116860

[Frank2]

Here's an oldie but a goodie just prior to my time in the weather business (select the 1979 system):

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Henri

[wxman57]

Here's an oldie but a goodie just prior to my time in the weather business (select the 1979 system):

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Henri

Something like that would be highly unlikely with strong cold advection (and dry air advection) into the BoC next week.