EPAC: TRUDY - Remnants

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF develops something in the BOC (crossover?) and then sends it south into Mexico like the GEM. The large-scale pattern over North America as shown by the ECMWF is a lot different than what the GFS and NAVGEM show in the long-range with the former models developing a gigantic H5 low centered near New England which causes the flow across the GOM to be from the NW to SE.

It's long range now so who knows which model camp will verify though the GEFS is leaning more with the ECMWF. We also note the normally conservation JMA has a 1004MB low in the BOC supporting a possible crossover event.

[N2FSU]

Euro +168

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[N2FSU]

Euro +216

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[N2FSU]

Convection really firing now:

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[cycloneye]

Are we sure is going to be a crossover? I ask that because according to the 18z Best Track is at 98W and that is past the longitudes of the Gulf of Tehuantepec where the land is the shortest to cross to the BOC. Is not moving in that direction right now.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good catch cyclone,

I am starting to wonder that myself. It seems to be moving up the coast the further north it gets the bigger the land mass to have a chance of really crossing over.

[gatorcane]

Are we sure is going to be a crossover? I ask that because according to the 18z Best Track is at 98W and that is past the longitudes of the Gulf of Tehuantepec where the land is the shortest to cross to the BOC. Is not moving in that direction right now.

Yeah that is my question, not really sure now. I will say that the global models develop something in the BOC by day 5 now (ECMWF is more around day 6), so the NHC will have no choice but to mention the BOC soon, or to extend the shading for this invest into the BOC. I think it may end up being the former, then we can have a thread just for the BOC system.

Even the conservative JMA has a low there at 144 hours:

[blp]

The 12z Euro buries it into C. America late. Probably the most likely outcome. That has been the pattern last 5 years with anything in the BOC and no reason to change now. It is amazing how locked in the pattern has been. The GFS in the higher resolution was delaying the move to the NE so I would expect that trend to continue.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I know in the past it was not one of the better models, but the NAVGEM has been showing something for a while now either in the BOC or down south east of the Yucatan. I have not check to see what the wind sheer will be in the Gulf in the next week or so week. But if something does get going it might just be a surprise for any of us in the north east Gulf over to Florida.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I know in the past it was not one of the better models, but the NAVGEM has been showing something for a while now either in the BOC or down south east of the Yucatan. I have not check to see what the wind sheer will be in the Gulf in the next week or so week. But if something does get going it might just be a surprise for any of us in the north east Gulf over to Florida.

Afternoon B. Climatology wise this time of year you would have the same fronts coming down, that have saved us earlier on the Atlantic side to pull anything that might develop north and or N/E. is there a blocking high that would cause it to get buried back in Mexico.

[gatorcane]

Another look at the scary NAVGEM run with a strengthening CAT 2 moving NE. It looks like it develops something that rolls off Mexico, maybe some part of 92E? Not buying this right now since it is the strongest of all the globals by a good amount (plus the NAVGEM is not a good of a model as the GFS or ECMWF) but does raise an eyebrow:

[blp]

The Texas Death Ridge and the East Coast troughs have saved the US in recent years. Latest Euro keeps the Texas Ridge in place and from the BOC it will be hard for it to get pulled up. Only chance would be if this was in the NW. Caribbean where the East Coast troughs would exert more influence.

[gatorcane]

Blp you could be right but we are still talking very long-range at this point and you have some models bringing it NE and some keeping it in the BOC. The GFS was diving it SE too in some previous runs but switched to a NE ejection today. Too early to say what is going to happen in my opinion but it does look like we could have some tropical development in the BOC, possibly from 92E crossing over or some energy from it, within the next week.

I would expect NHC to start mentioning BOC development starting in an outlook within the next 24-48 hours given the strong model support. A storm appears quite possible which would add yet another one for this Atlantic hurricane season which is suddenly looking quite normal.

Here is wide shot, showing just how massive this invest is

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Blp you could be right but we are still talking very long-range at this point and you have some models bringing it NE and some keeping it in the BOC. The GFS was diving it SE too in some previous runs but switched to a NE ejection today. Too early to say what is going to happen in my opinion but it does look like we could have some tropical development in the BOC, possibly from 92E crossing over or some energy from it, within the next week.

I would expect NHC to start mentioning BOC development starting in an outlook within the next 24-48 hours given the strong model support. A storm appears quite possible which would add yet another one for this Atlantic hurricane season which is suddenly looking quite normal.

Here is wide shot, showing just how massive this invest is

Gator,
As you mentioned this invest is a large one, with the trailing front in the Gulf who knows what might develop down there. Been a very strange season so far, so we wait to see what develops and then where it goes.

[gatorcane]

It looks like the GFS is splitting invest 92E into two with one area moving more north over Mexico and into the BOC and the other moving more WNW just south of the southern coast of Mexico.

The 18Z GFS is shows the low crossing over into the BOC within the next 48 hours now. Looking at the SAT imagery, it does appear that the right part of 92E is starting to move slowly NW toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec where it will try to cross over. The SW part of the blob of convection is moving more W or WNW.

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 18Z GFS ends at 192 hours (last high resolution graphic):

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather extending from the Gulf of
Tehuantepec southwestward for a few hundred miles is associated
with an elongated area of low pressure. This disturbance is showing
signs of organization, and the environment appears to be favorable
for the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or
so. This system is expected to move northwestward or northward
toward the coast of Mexico, and regardless of whether or not a
tropical cyclone forms, heavy rains will spread across southwestern
Mexico over the next few days. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[MGC]

Are we sure is going to be a crossover? I ask that because according to the 18z Best Track is at 98W and that is past the longitudes of the Gulf of Tehuantepec where the land is the shortest to cross to the BOC. Is not moving in that direction right now.

Exactly what I am thinking Cycloneye. 92E looks pretty far west and continues to move westward. Not sold on the cross over yet......MGC

[floridasun78]

Are we sure is going to be a crossover? I ask that because according to the 18z Best Track is at 98W and that is past the longitudes of the Gulf of Tehuantepec where the land is the shortest to cross to the BOC. Is not moving in that direction right now.

Exactly what I am thinking Cycloneye. 92E looks pretty far west and continues to move westward. Not sold on the cross over yet......MGC

so may have not thing in boc?? so modles maybe all wrong 92e may more more to west?

[blp]

The 18z Navgem now keeps it in the BOC in 180 hrs which is inline with the other models. Still showing and strong system.