ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Bahamas wx wrote --" I don't know how legit that image is. I was present in Nassau for Michelle, and although there was a long calm period during the eye, it was always 100% overcast--not an ounce of blue sky."

You must have looked out at the wrong moment. Me, Jim Leonard, Mike Theis, Brad Riley all intercepted Michelle on Paradise Island (Nassau suburb). Check their websites for similar images. Not only was there clear skies in the "eye" captured on video by all of us for nearly an hour, there was the unusual occurrence of sunlit skies on the backside circulation with 90 mph sustained winds for over a half hour with the sun shining through a very thin cirrus cover SW of the calm center. Thanks for the compliment on the highly rare photo.

Below, albeit low quality, is satellite image of Michelle at the same time as the clear eye from the ground image; showing a clear center.

Better quality, showing the same http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc01/ATL/15L.MICHELLE/vis/geo/1km/20011105.1402.goes-8.vis.x.15LMICHELLE.70kts-974mb.jpg

Given its small size, the ERC may drop the intensity quite a bit - perhaps to Cat 2.

I'd say very likely, probably even by tonight, and in fact the strengthening is likely over for the duration at this point.

[OuterBanker]

Does anybody have any live streaming webcams from Bermuda? The only two I could find are not operating.

http://portnassauwebcam.com/

These appear to work in Internet Explorer but not Google Chrome.

Thanks Riptide. Great cam, works well in IE 11 High res too.

Interesting, the cruise ships at dock. Wonder if they will sit it out or try to make a run for the Conus ports.

[supercane4867]

NOAA buoy 41046 recently reported a pressure of 955 mb, and was
quite useful in estimating Gonzalo's minimum pressure.

[RL3AO]

NOAA buoy 41046 recently reported a pressure of 955 mb, and was
quite useful in estimating Gonzalo's minimum pressure.

[img/]http://i.imgur.com/H8awX3p.png[/img]

So in metar land that would be a pressure tendency group of 57355 or 58355.

[JahJa]

Does anybody have any live streaming webcams from Bermuda? The only two I could find are not operating.

http://portnassauwebcam.com/

These appear to work in Internet Explorer but not Google Chrome.

Thanks Riptide. Great cam, works well in IE 11 High res too.

Interesting, the cruise ships at dock. Wonder if they will sit it out or try to make a run for the Conus ports.

This link is for Nassau in Bahamas not Bermuda. I think there are some cameras on http://www.weather.bm and if I can think of any others I will post them. As it stands the wind has picked up a bit here but otherwise today was really quite a nice day......the quiet before the storm I guess they say!

[Riptide]

My bad, here is the one for Bermuda. They are all interlinked so yeah.
http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

[supercane4867]

ERC completed

[MGC]

Looks to me that the outflow is a bit restricted on the west side of Gonzalo so the cyclone should start feeling the trough soon. We shall see what the next recon flight brings.....MGC

[bahamaswx]

Bahamas wx wrote --" I don't know how legit that image is. I was present in Nassau for Michelle, and although there was a long calm period during the eye, it was always 100% overcast--not an ounce of blue sky."

You must have looked out at the wrong moment. Me, Jim Leonard, Mike Theis, Brad Riley all intercepted Michelle on Paradise Island (Nassau suburb). Check their websites for similar images. Not only was there clear skies in the "eye" captured on video by all of us for nearly an hour, there was the unusual occurrence of sunlit skies on the backside circulation with 90 mph sustained winds for over a half hour with the sun shining through a very thin cirrus cover SW of the calm center. Thanks for the compliment on the highly rare photo.

Below, albeit low quality, is satellite image of Michelle at the same time as the clear eye from the ground image; showing a clear center.

[img]http://i369.photobucket.com/albums/oo133/horodner/satmich.jpg[img] [img]http://i369.photobucket.com/albums/oo133/horodner/irmichcopy.jpg[img]

I went out for a drive in the eye to look around, but was on the opposite side of the island. Those satellite pictures of Michelle over Nassau always amaze me, and always remind me that even dying storms with an absolutely miserable looking satellite appearance can still pack quite a punch!

[supercane4867]

The CDO is becoming more symmetrical than it was last night. With the new eye clearing out Gonzalo may regain Cat.4 status in the next few hours if not already.

[Steve820]

It would be cool if it can regain C4 status. Gonzy, you got this! Also, I haven't been that active on the forum anymore, and it's because I've been losing interest in this forum (but I'm still slightly interested in tracking hurricanes). From now on, I'll be more inactive on this forum then I used to be.

[CrazyC83]

With land in the path, we want weakening.

[Hammy]

We'll have an idea shortly what the winds are, but I'd wager it'll be down to Cat 1 by tomorrow as it looks like westerly winds will start infringing on the circulation within 12-24 hours. The western side certainly does not indicate a Cat 4, or even a Cat 3.

[Alyono]

I'll take the wager Hammy

I'll put $500 on it that this will not be down to a cat 1 tomorrow

[TheStormExpert]

I'll take the wager Hammy

I'll put $500 on it that this will not be down to a cat 1 tomorrow

Yeah, according to Jim Cantore since it's smaller in size it will weaken slower than usual.

[Hammy]

Did the plane stop reporting?

[CrazyC83]

With the NE quadrant data struggling to come, if there is no data from there, the best guess would be 100 kt - pressure rose very slightly (likely about 955), 84 kt SFMR in SW quad (expected to be weakest part) and expected to be a difference of twice the movement (6 kt) in NE quad.

[CrazyC83]

Data is in: 118 kt FL (supports 106 kt at surface), 99 kt SFMR. Either 100 or 105 kt most likely.

[chaser1]

I'll take the wager Hammy

I'll put $500 on it that this will not be down to a cat 1 tomorrow

Tempting be Alyono, and was about to jump on the bandwagon with you, but jeez... looking at the buzz-saw shear advancing from the west. Gustavo is resembling the 'ol "suicide squeeze play" in baseball. At least temporarily it appears that the vort. max is swinging around the west side of the eye and for the moment is at least helping warm the atmosphere so to perhaps hold off approaching shear temporarily. But to be able to stave off that shear for a full 24 hours?? I don't know, hard for me to see that. Makes for a fun bet and discussion though

[Hammy]

Winds are down but pressure is the same, what can be taken from this as far as future intensity?