ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Eye at 10:25am EDT:



Image Credit: NOAA-AOC

[TheStormExpert]

Well it just recently overnight entered that "Hot Spot" this season where all our hurricanes have formed and ramped up, so this sudden strengthening phase doesn't suprise me fully. I'd be praying and hoping for the best for Bermuda, cause they'll need it!

[TheStormExpert]

Wow..in the world if bad luck in the Atlantic basin the last 5 yrs...Bermuda wins hands down..I know they are built for these but I wish them luck and hope they stay safe..I smell a retirement coming for Gonzalo...

Probably will be the first and only time this name is used if so.

[Macrocane]

Wow, 125 kt is a great achievment for Gonzalo, it is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane by wind speed since 2010 Igor, which also affected Bermuda.

[tolakram]

Live visible loops. Looks great sped up.

Zoom 2
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-68&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow

Zoom 1
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-68&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow

[tolakram]

latest

[supercane4867]

Classic ERC

[Alyono]

doing what Igor did, repeated eyewall replacements

However, it appears to be doing this too late to result in this weakening to a marginal hurricane. What may happen is this ends up as a very large category 3 by the time it reaches Bermuda

[msbee]

Right now I'm praying that Gonzalo goes a bit more west. So far everyone has dodged a very dangerous bullet. I'm hoping that he slides more west and winds up between the Conus and Bermuda. Best case scenario.

Not everyone. The islands in the Caribbean chain that were slammed into by a Cat 1 hurricane that was forecast as a tropical storm have loss of life and major destruction and clean up ahead. Hopefully Bermuda will not suffer the same.

we sure did...outerbanker, St Maarten sure didn't dodge any bullet..Lots and lots of damage here.
IMHO, the NHC has consistently under foretasted this storm.

Hope Bermuda REALLY does somehow dodge this bullet! Take all precautions!

[CrazyC83]

Once the eye rebuilds again, I wonder does it have enough time to intensify to a Cat 5 before cooler water hits? Also has Bermuda ever taken a direct hit from a Cat 4+ storm?

[TheStormExpert]

doing what Igor did, repeated eyewall replacements

However, it appears to be doing this too late to result in this weakening to a marginal hurricane. What may happen is this ends up as a very large category 3 by the time it reaches Bermuda

So you do not see this maintaining Cat.4 strength as it hits/comes close to Bermuda like the NHC is currently forecasting as of 11am?

[TheStormExpert]

No doubt TWC should send someone to Bermuda to cover this storm.

[Alyono]

probably not going to maintain cat 4.

However, we could have 2 to 3 hours of cat 3 winds on Bermuda

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF shows Bermuda taking a direct hit by the eastern eyewall, as worse as it can gets

[CrazyC83]

12z HWRF shows Bermuda taking a direct hit by the eastern eyewall, as worse as it can gets

125 kt at 850mb would be about 100 kt at the surface, so a long period of Cat 1-2 conditions at least (brief Cat 3 conditions).

[Sanibel]

It's probably already in the peak range for tropical potential.

[tatertawt24]

Aww, I'm so upset that I missed his RI overnight and didn't get to track it live. These storms always peak when I'm asleep.

[chaser1]

This looks to really be a tense situation for those on Bermuda. Wish I was there to chase it; more importantly - Best Wishes and Stay Safe to all those in Bermuda! Satellite appears to have just indicated the expected shift to the NNE, and it's gonna be a real close call. Sure hope it doesnt prematurely speed up a tad, because that alone would limit the weakening prior to potential landfall (or close pass). At this point, I'm guessing that Gonzalo will be at least a strong Cat.2 and may easily be a Cat 3 when near Bermuda.

I suppose there is no clear obstacle to prevent Gonzalo from maintaining its present strength for another 24-30 hr's, If one considers that possibility, along with a potential direct hit on the island, and its distance/isolation from the mainland - THAT presents quite a scary scenario.

[CrazyC83]

Yes, I am strongly in belief that Gonzalo's name will be headed for retirement when its all said and done.

Whether it comes from the Lesser Antilles, from Bermuda or from Atlantic Canada, yeah probably.

[Alyono]

EC is east of Bermuda

However, the BS flag is fully raised

It's 18Z position is 26.2N, 68.3W. Satellite shows it to be near 26.6N, 68.2W

EC is very slow, allowing the trough to push it east of Bermuda