ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

I'd say a direct hit or clip of the west eyewall from the looks of it.


The Bermuda live cam is still up and the winds have increased.



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[northjaxpro]

Tropical storm force winds extend out over 175 miles from the eye of Gonzalo, so I am pretty confident that areas on Bermuda are receiving tropical storm force wind gusts at this time abajan. Gonzalo's eye is now within 150-175 miles from the island right now.

[Alyono]

about 120 miles away now

Not sure Bermuda will get category 3 conditions, however. The latest SFMR readings indicate cat 1/cat 2 winds at most, but that they cover a very large area

[abajan]

Tropical storm force winds extend out over 175 miles from the eye of Gonzalo, so I am pretty confident that areas on Bermuda are receiving tropical storm force wind gusts at this time abajan. Gonzalo's eye is now within 150-175 miles from the island right now.

Typically, those winds wouldn't extend outward the same distance in all directions though. I'm guessing it's the SE quadrant where they are that distance from the center.

EDIT: Yeah, I'm sure you're right about the force of the gusts. I misread what you stated to mean sustained winds.

[northjaxpro]

If an ERC phase is in the process of completion now, there is still a chance Gonzalo could briefly re-intensify tonight while passing the island. But, Alyono, I hope you are right, but that is still bad enough unfortunately.

[MGC]

Yes, lets hope this is a well timed EWRC......MGC

[ozonepete]

You see those goats on the web cam? Doesn't look like a very safe place

[sweetpea]

I wonder how long that camera will last. It is starting to shake, I was also wondering about those sheep. Poor things.

[psyclone]

You see those goats on the web cam? Doesn't look like a very safe place

yes. they had better duck and cover. I hope that camera holds up. it is providing awesome views. sustained gales will be there soon...looks to be a bit below that right now.

[supercane4867]

AMSU pass indicates yet another ERC could be underway. It's time to call Gonzalo the ERC king

[ozonepete]

You see those goats on the web cam? Doesn't look like a very safe place

yes. they had better duck and cover. I hope that camera holds up. it is providing awesome views. sustained gales will be there soon...looks to be a bit below that right now.

Yeah the first rainbands are only a few minutes away. Watvh the wind really kock up as they mobe overhead.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, ozonepete, I saw the sheep out there in the open exposed. That is not good for them at all to say the least.

I am not sure how long the Port Bermuda webcam will be able to stay up during this event, but it is pro iding some very good views of the situation there for sure. However, I have to anticipate that the webcam feed will likely go out as the worst of Gonzalo moves through in a few hours.

[floridasun78]

good news goats look like been remove not webcam

[CrazyC83]

The constant ERC's are not a good thing since they mean long duration hurricane winds, not a brief period of stronger winds.

[ozonepete]

That's definitely good news

[Alyono]

if this had had 12 to 24 more hours, we would have had a repeat of Igor where a sure fire devastating hurricane turned out to be a sprawling marginal hurricane.

Igor also underwent repeated eyewall replacements

[JahJa]

I wonder how long that camera will last. It is starting to shake, I was also wondering about those sheep. Poor things.

The sheep there are in the royal navel dockyard and there is a lot shelter for them on the property in the different caves and forts. I am sure they will be just fine!

[CrazyC83]

if this had had 12 to 24 more hours, we would have had a repeat of Igor where a sure fire devastating hurricane turned out to be a sprawling marginal hurricane.

Igor also underwent repeated eyewall replacements

In the case of Igor, the topography of Bermuda helped as well, since it prevented a flood catastrophe like in Newfoundland...

[ozonepete]

Yeah, ozonepete, I saw the sheep out there in the open exposed. That is not good for them at all to say the least.

I am not sure how long the Port Bermuda webcam will be able to stay up during this event, but it is pro iding some very good views of the situation there for sure. However, I have to anticipate that the webcam feed will likely go out as the worst of Gonzalo moves through in a few hours.

Yeah from the looks of it that cam will be down pretty soon. Hoping that we'll start getting something from our 2 chase guys pretty soon

[Alyono]

if this had had 12 to 24 more hours, we would have had a repeat of Igor where a sure fire devastating hurricane turned out to be a sprawling marginal hurricane.

Igor also underwent repeated eyewall replacements

In the case of Igor, the topography of Bermuda helped as well, since it prevented a flood catastrophe like in Newfoundland...

what happened in Newfoundland was Igor ingtensified a lot just prior to impacting the area.

Also, CHC failed to issue a hurricane warning, only issuing a hurricane watch and a TS warning. Thus, people were not quite as prepared as they could have been