CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Models continue to trend farther away from the islands. Looks like only some outer rain bands for the main islands. Winds well below tropical storm strength. All those who bought generators can use them for the next hurricane to threaten Hawaii in another 20-30 years.

[gatorcane]

Models continue to trend farther away from the islands. Looks like only some outer rain bands for the main islands. Winds well below tropical storm strength. All those who bought generators can use them for the next hurricane to threaten Hawaii in another 20-30 years.

Looks like the ECMWF model with get this one right again as it was the first to show it missing the islands to the south, though it did have a run (I think it was a couple of days ago) where it tried to recurve it in.

[hurricaneCW]

Models continue to trend farther away from the islands. Looks like only some outer rain bands for the main islands. Winds well below tropical storm strength. All those who bought generators can use them for the next hurricane to threaten Hawaii in another 20-30 years.

Looks like the ECMWF model with get this one right again as it was the first to show it missing the islands to the south, though it did have a run (I think it was a couple of days ago) where it tried to recurve it in.

Bermuda could have used that same luck today too bad.

[euro6208]

Models continue to trend farther away from the islands. Looks like only some outer rain bands for the main islands. Winds well below tropical storm strength. All those who bought generators can use them for the next hurricane to threaten Hawaii in another 20-30 years.

This comment made me smile...Hawaii is so lucky!

The great hawaiian shear to the rescue again...

[AFWeather]

Another reminder that the South Point radar is down so we won't get to use that as she passes by the big island.

[supercane4867]

Models continue to trend farther away from the islands. Looks like only some outer rain bands for the main islands. Winds well below tropical storm strength. All those who bought generators can use them for the next hurricane to threaten Hawaii in another 20-30 years.

This comment made me smile...Hawaii is so lucky!

The great hawaiian shear to the rescue again...

It has nothing to do with the GHS this time

[euro6208]

Latest run from GFS shows ANA at 974 mb northwest of the Islands...Pretty impressive this far north...

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Models continue to trend farther away from the islands. Looks like only some outer rain bands for the main islands. Winds well below tropical storm strength. All those who bought generators can use them for the next hurricane to threaten Hawaii in another 20-30 years.

Trust me no one purchased anything. I got grilled on Facebook just for warning people to prepare.

[euro6208]

Looks like some passing heavy rain showers with a bit of wind for hawaii...This is what Guam gets normally...

[Kingarabian]

SAB has 4.0/4.0

[Kingarabian]

8+ inches of rain

[Kingarabian]

[wxman57]

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/GP00_ANA02C_2014101706_precip_swath.gif

8+ inches of rain

GFDL appears to be too far east with the track, though. I'm thinking maybe 2-4" into Honolulu.

[Kingarabian]

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/GP00_ANA02C_2014101706_precip_swath.gif

8+ inches of rain

GFDL appears to be too far east with the track, though. I'm thinking maybe 2-4" into Honolulu.

If Ana doesn't slow down, will it feel the High less?

[AFWeather]

Don't have the full update yet but it looks like they upgraded her to a cane and issued some watches/warnings for the smaller islands.

[AFWeather]

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE
WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW CONTINUES IN ALL BUT THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ALL
THREE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN AT 4.0/65 KT...AND ANA HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A HURRICANE. U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
SAMPLING ANA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV
CONTINUES TO PROBE THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE TVCN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
DYNAMIC AND CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GUIDANCE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS ALSO...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE RIGHT IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
AS A RESULT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI
COUNTY...OAHU...AND KAUAI COUNTY AND REMAINS POSTED FOR THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII.

THE INITIAL MOTION REFLECTS THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
IS SET AT 300/12 KT. ANA WILL TURN ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK LATER
TODAY AS THE DEEP ANTICYCLONE STEERING THE SYSTEM IS NUDGED EASTWARD
AND WEAKENED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH.
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A NEW DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTH OF ANA AND SHOULD PUSH THE SYSTEM BACK ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE TURN HAS
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS AS TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FELT ON THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...HENCE THE EXPANSION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO MAUI COUNTY...OAHU...AND KAUAI COUNTY. BY
DAYS 4 AND 5...ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LYING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ANA IS PRODUCING MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS MAINTAINING A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IN ALL BUT THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CHANGE LITTLE TODAY WHILE OCEAN TEMPERATURE REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. AS A RESULT...ANA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. THE
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION WILL CLOSE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
BEGIN TO IMPART VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ANA WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS
TROPICAL STORM. SOME REINTENSIFICATION IS CALLED FOR ON DAY 5 AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND SHIPS.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE EXACT TRACK THAT ANA
TAKES WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE WEATHER AND OCEAN IMPACTS THAT THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL HAVE TO ENDURE. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
TRY TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.4N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.5N 156.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.8N 157.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 19.8N 158.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 20.3N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 21.2N 162.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 22.5N 165.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 24.0N 167.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has Ana further west after it rounds the big island.

[Kingarabian]

It tried. Ana just solidified that a hurricane hitting Hawaii really is extremely rare.

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think it will strengthen a good bit when it reaches the favourable conditions later on?