SIO: INVEST 93S

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93S INVEST 141017 1200 4.0S 82.0E SHEM 15 1010


SSD Floater is up

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Near high probability of forming.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_SIndian.html

[Extratropical94]

From the MeteoFrance page:

The low level circulation is broad and bad defined and is approximately centred near 01S/87E.
MSLP is estimated at 1008 hPa with winds at about 10/15 kt locally up 20 kt in the southern semi-
circle.
Associated convective activity is scattered and fluctuating but locally strong. It extends north of 8S
and east of 78E. In relationship with a north-easterly windshear and its position too close to the
equator, potential of development likes very limited.
European NWP model (IFS) suggests that this low level clockwise circulation will move slowly
southwards.
For the next 5 days, the likelihood for development of a tropical depression is Low.

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.3S 87.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 748 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
191615Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING TOWARDS
THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 10 TO 20 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 20 October 2014
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 23 October 2014.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak tropical low is located near 04S 87E. It is expected to drift slowly to
the southwest over the next few days and remain out of the Western Region.
There are no other tropical lows in the Western Region and none are expected to
develop over the next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:
Tuesday: Very Low
Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Very Low