Possible Development in the BOC (Is Invest 93L)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks very subtropical there...strongest winds well away from center.

[SFLcane]

how tropical is this? That looks like a frontal low based upon the SLP depiction

Regardless sub-tropical or not can still cause problems. needs to be watched especially for heavy rainfall potential. Reality most wont even know difference

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

Should I be worried? I live in Sarasota county.https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sarasota-County-Emergency-Management/623466111005511?hc_location=timeline

I moved your post to this thread to not have duplicated threads about the same topic.

[Alyono]

thats not even subtropical, that is frontal. Look at the precip pattern. There is a clear front extending from the system

[JKingTampa]

Well, as of now, definitely a lot of moisture from Trudy for this low to work with.

[N2FSU]

Who do we trust at this point, GFS further south or Euro further north?
GFS hasn't exactly been trustworthy this year, but is it more accurate in the short range once something HAS developed?

[psyclone]

thats not even subtropical, that is frontal. Look at the precip pattern. There is a clear front extending from the system

well we're bored and there's nothing else to talk about.

[floridasun78]

i be watching it here in miami

[jlauderdal]

Who do we trust at this point, GFS further south or Euro further north?
GFS hasn't exactly been trustworthy this year, but is it more accurate in the short range once something HAS developed?

i will make this easy...euro until further notice...enjoy the rain florida

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[SFLcane]

joe b on twitter...

pm post on http://weatherbell.com showed members "Isbell" (1964) set up for Fla. 18z GFS went to it

[HurricaneBelle]

Forget Isbell, the analog I have in mind is Mitch from 1998. After it was a Cat 5 and devastated Honduras, it kind of died in Mexico and then reformed in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche and moved ENE as a sheared 55-MPH TS across South Florida during the first week in November.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... infall.gif

[jlauderdal]

Forget Isbell, the analog I have in mind is Mitch from 1998. After it was a Cat 5 and devastated Honduras, it kind of died in Mexico and then reformed in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche and moved ENE as a sheared 55-MPH TS across South Florida during the first week in November.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... infall.gif

mitch was a nasty storm..no debate about that

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

[Hurricane Alexis]

thats not even subtropical, that is frontal. Look at the precip pattern. There is a clear front extending from the system

How different are the impacts from a frontal low rather than a tropical or sub-tropical one?

[sunnyday]

I've seen that low on Florida so many times this year, and nothing has come of any of them. It makes it hard for me to take that seriously although I know anything can happen.

[jlauderdal]

I've seen that low on Florida so many times this year, and nothing has come of any of them. It makes it hard for me to take that seriously although I know anything can happen.

south florida gets hit alot in the gfs world

[Hammy]

I've seen that low on Florida so many times this year, and nothing has come of any of them. It makes it hard for me to take that seriously although I know anything can happen.

Euro has never showed it before now.

That said, this could be a possible analog as far as track/intensity, if the Euro is any indication