Possible Development in the BOC (Is Invest 93L)

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM stronger and has shifted left some, 168 hours below. Track is E or ESE in the BOC, through the Yucatan and then it turns to the NE in the NW Caribbean, through Western Cuba and into SE Florida. Looks to be similar to the GFS track except a little slower. Also that looks tropical to me below, but I may be reading this model wrong.

[blp]

:crazyeyes:

[]http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/SE/gfsSE_sfc_precacc_240.gif[/img]

Wow never seen white before. Good thing it is the GFS

[jlauderdal]

:crazyeyes:

[]http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/SE/gfsSE_sfc_precacc_240.gif[/img]

Wow never seen white before. Good thing it is the GFS

its the gfsf

good for south florida

[gatorcane]

Looking at the WV loop tonight, we can see a large area of disturbed weather has developed in the SW Gulf. The upper-level winds don't look too bad as you can see the clouds "fanning" fairly symmetrically over the low pressure area which is centered near the Mexico coast in the SW BOC. Perhaps some light, westerly shear is present. The dry air (orange color in the loop) that was over the BOC is gone and is on the way out across the Southern Gulf too. Conditions look conducive for development as the NHC has stated.

[TheStormExpert]

Those favorable conditions could be short lived though, especially since we are heading into late October and the GoM has been unfavorable all season.

[Frank2]

This is starting to give me the headache - it reminds me of 2005, when we thought the season was over - then Wilma formed...

This looks like it could be a problem for us - I hope not...

[TheStormExpert]

This is starting to give me the headache - it reminds me of 2005, when we thought the season was over - then Wilma formed...

This looks like it could be a problem for us - I hope not...

Not saying that it could not happen, but one thing to take from this season is that all the biggies (Hurricanes) have been located off the East Coast in the West Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

Well as bad as the GFS has been this season, it was the first model that I recall that picked up on this area days ago. The ECMWF kept burying the area in the southern BOC or turning the system due south in the NW Caribbean and had an unrealistically strong cold front that squashed all development. It seems the ECMWF joined the GFS on the 12Z run yesterday I believe and is now showing something, perhaps subtropical entering the SE Gulf similar to the GFS only more west. Also, the NAVGEM and GEM are also showing something similar to the GFS regarding track and intensity though the GEM and NAVGEM are more intense. As bad as the GFS has been, so far it seems to be doing well with this system/setup.

Bottom-line: the GFS has support from the other global models this time so we should not be so quick to discard what it is showing.

[psyclone]

This is starting to give me the headache - it reminds me of 2005, when we thought the season was over - then Wilma formed...

This looks like it could be a problem for us - I hope not...

maybe I'm wrong but I'm not remotely concerned about a legit TC threat from this in the traditional sense. The worst I'm envisioning is a loose subtropical system with any sustained wind largely a threat to marine interests and beach erosion while those on land get breezy, squally weather with the threats confined to flooding from heavy rain and perhaps isolated svr wx. and that's the high end of my reasonable range of outcomes. it's easy to envision a lot less coming from this as well.

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[jlauderdal]

Well as bad as the GFS has been this season, it was the first model that I recall that picked up on this area days ago. The ECMWF kept burying the area in the southern BOC or turning the system due south in the NW Caribbean and had an unrealistically strong cold front that squashed all development. It seems the ECMWF joined the GFS a couple of days ago and is now showing something, perhaps subtropical entering the SE Gulf similar to the GFS only more west. Also, the NAVGEM and GEM are also showing something similar to the GFS regarding track and intensity though the GEM and NAVGEM are more intense. As bad as the GFS has been, so far it seems to be doing well with this system/setup.

Bottom-line: the GFS has support from the other global models this time so we should not be so quick to discard what it is showing.

the gfs solution seems reasonable so we shouldnt discount it

[blp]

What I have noticied from both GFS and Euro is the trend has been for less frontal and more tropical and also stronger with each run so certainly keeping my eye on it.

[Blown Away]

joe b on twitter...

pm post on http://weatherbell.com showed members "Isbell" (1964) set up for Fla. 18z GFS went to it

How is this BOC system similar to Isabell? Isabell started in the Caribbean? I like JB but not understanding the comparison...

[tropicwatch]

The westerly wind shear needs to come down a bit.

[gatorcane]

Popcorn convection is starting to pop-up in the SW BOC:

[floridasun78]

i dont get this suppose be for week of oct 26 or so what models showing but their forecast rain here after wed this week? so long days rains?

[Frank2]

It is very rare for a system to form in the BOC and cross SFL as a hurricane, so thats one thing going against it - that and shear, but sure remember what Wilma did and me spending 10 days in a Sebring hotel, and residents from this area driving up there just to buy water and wash their clothes - I called my neighbors after a few days after Wilma and they told me "You're lucky to be up there - don't rush back" (more asprin please)...

[AdamFirst]

How is this BOC system similar to Isabell? Isabell started in the Caribbean? I like JB but not understanding the comparison...

He is likely using it as a track analog, since the 18z GFS crosses South Florida and then turn back up to the northwest by the end of the run

[blp]

Interesting looking at the Euro and Navgem they both have a low early on in both the BOC and NW Carribean and both eventually develop the BOC low which is stronger. Almost looks a moonsonal gyre then it consolidates. That could hold this back a little. If it happens sooner this could ramp up faster.

Euro:


Navgem:

[gatorcane]

Here is the 12Z GEM run below, similar to the GFS run, just a little more intense and it I believe the GEM is showing a more tropical system. So all the globals, right now at least are actually in decent agreement through 7 days with the ECMWF on the left into the EGOM and the NAVGEM on the right through the FL straits/SE Florida. Of course these are all in the upper limit of the medium-range where accuracy is not excellent.

[blp]

Here is the 12Z GEM run below, similar to the GFS run, just a little more intense. So all the globals, right now at least are actually in decent agreement through 7 days with the ECMWF on the left into the EGOM:

[img]http://i59.tinypic.com/2iacwes.jpg[/]

Yes good consensus building. I am still waiting to get the updated higher resolution UKmet that goes to 144hrs. It has not updated since 12z yesterday. I am curious to see what it does.