Possible Development in the BOC (Is Invest 93L)

[northjaxpro]

It is safe to assume for now that a significant rain event may be in store for South Florida by late this week. The models are in agreement of some type of subtropical/possible tropical entity possibly forming deep down in the Southern GOM region later this week. Also, with the AO and NAO now forecast to go back to positive within the week, this may set the stage for considerably less troughing across the Eastern CONUS. If ridging sets up across the SE US or off the Atlantic seaboard within the next 7-10 days, then there would be a possible scenario where if this entity does form , it could get trapped or even meander around the Florida peninsula/Eastern Gulf. Just something to monitor late this week.
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The following is not official forecast. It is strictly the opinion of this poster. Please refer to the lastest information and products from the NHC.

[CrazyC83]

Assuming 92L becomes Hanna, the dreaded I storm could strike again...

Surprised this isn't 93L yet.

[gatorcane]

Although the NAM is not a good tropical model, it is interesting to note it has trended with a stronger and more consolidated system in the BOC with each run today and here is how the 00Z NAM ends at 84 hours with a 1002MB tropical storm headed slowly east.

[cycloneye]

Assuming 92L becomes Hanna, the dreaded I storm could strike again...

Surprised this isn't 93L yet.

TAFB doesn't have a low in BOC at surface map yet and that is important to have to then get invest up.

[SFLcane]

Convection increasing...

[gatorcane]

Assuming 92L becomes Hanna, the dreaded I storm could strike again...

Surprised this isn't 93L yet.

If it becomes the "I" storm, the media is going to have a fun time pronouncing this one..."Isaias" pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

[blp]

Although the NAM is not a good tropical model, it is interesting to note it has trended with a stronger and more consolidated system in the BOC with each run today and here is how the 00Z NAM ends at 84 hours with a 1002MB tropical storm headed slowly east.

[]http://i60.tinypic.com/21afxnq.jpg[/img]

We have seen the BOC ramp up systems quickly so it would not surprise me if this ramps up quicker than modeled.

[fci]

Assuming 92L becomes Hanna, the dreaded I storm could strike again...

Surprised this isn't 93L yet.

If it becomes the "I" storm, the media is going to have a fun time pronouncing this one..."Isaias" pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

Sounds way too much like Isis

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Assuming 92L becomes Hanna, the dreaded I storm could strike again...

Surprised this isn't 93L yet.

If it becomes the "I" storm, the media is going to have a fun time pronouncing this one..."Isaias" pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs."

Gator,

I can't even say it pronouncing how you spelled it out.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening BLP,

Things have changed a bit since a couple of days ago. Models were showing it getting pushed back into Mexico, and in some cases backing off off anything getting going. But as things are coming together it is something we need to watch. As I mentioned before climatology favors a direction towards south Florida this time of year.

[GrimReaper]

Ahhhh yes! A completely perfect day in NE Florida too! Low 80's day, and nighttime mid 50's !! No scary hurricane needed for Halloween! !!

[blp]

Evening BLP,

Things have changed a bit since a couple of days ago. Models were showing it getting pushed back into Mexico, and in some cases backing off off anything getting going. But as things are coming together it is something we need to watch. As I mentioned before climatology favors a direction towards south Florida this time of year.

00z GFS is different than previous. Keeps low in NW Carribean so far at 150hr and ramping up. Worried this might be a hurricane on this run.

[SFLcane]

Indeed might end up with a paloma track into cuba.

[Hurricaneman]

Indeed might end up with a paloma track into cuba.

or even tracks similar to Wilma, Mitch, and Irene in 99 so while this is coming together the track is unknown in a setup like this

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

Indeed might end up with a paloma track into cuba.

or even tracks similar to Wilma, Mitch, and Irene in 99 so while this is coming together the track is unknown in a setup like this

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yep...looking more like this might get left behind in the Caribbean we shall see this week.

edit: GFS has an intensifying hurricane at 180hrs down there

[StormingB81]

Well just when you think you can write things off it reminds you that its still hurricane season and you still have to pay attention but looking at everything looks too south of here to worry just yet if anything does happen

[WeatherEmperor]

All I want to know is who is staying up to post tonights Euro lol

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening BLP,

Things have changed a bit since a couple of days ago. Models were showing it getting pushed back into Mexico, and in some cases backing off off anything getting going. But as things are coming together it is something we need to watch. As I mentioned before climatology favors a direction towards south Florida this time of year.

00z GFS is different than previous. Keeps low in NW Carribean so far at 150hr and ramping up. Worried this might be a hurricane on this run.

Which run the 18z had it getting stretched out as it headed ENE

[Hurricaneman]

Well just when you think you can write things off it reminds you that its still hurricane season and you still have to pay attention but looking at everything looks too south of here to worry just yet if anything does happen

quite right but we'll know more by the weekend whether this is a threat or misses completely, its worth keeping an eye on for sure as the setup is one of the most complex in a while

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

Potent hurricane into South Florida...