ATL: Ex NINE

[northjaxpro]

Based on the buoy obs in the BOC with the lowest pressures down near Veracruz, that indeed may be where the Low pressure area is beginning to organize near the coast there.

[Dean4Storms]

Really hard to say with this setup whether it gets trapped or not, expect some model variations.

[northjaxpro]

Really hard to say with this setup whether it gets trapped or not, expect some model variations.

Yeah, I know Dean. I was simply pointing to the possible scenario in my post above about the +AO/NAO and the potential implications on Invest 93 down the road.

[Sanibel]

That thing is beefing up now. Goes to show how unpredictable the tropics are that a late season kick you in the rear on the way out the door for the season wrongway system can threaten you when you don't expect it.


There could be an LLC in the 96-21 area.

[psyclone]

what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.

[northjaxpro]

what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.

Yes, that possibility is on the table as well.

[gatorcane]

This is looking better by the hour. I wonder if we may be seeing the beginning of genesis around 21.5N, 96W, further north than where NHC has the X? Some of the globals have showed genesis happening further north in the BOC.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.

As you said it is a possible scenario, if you have a strong front coming down that steers the system further south than east, that might cause it to slide passed to the south.

[jlauderdal]

what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.

As you said it is a possible scenario, if you have a strong front coming down that steers the system further south than east, that might cause it to slide passed to the south.

slide to the south or if it stays farther north run into hostile conditions..either way this is going to have trouble as it approaches florida

[gatorcane]

RAMMB has moved the loader onto it and it is updated more frequently...here is the link:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[blp]

RAMMB has moved the loader onto it and it is updated more frequently...here is the link:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Thank you. You are right this starting to take off. Good sping getting going now.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.

As you said it is a possible scenario, if you have a strong front coming down that steers the system further south than east, that might cause it to slide passed to the south.

slide to the south or if it stays farther north run into hostile conditions..either way this is going to have trouble as it approaches florida

Or get caught in a stalled out mess over us with several days of rain and wind.

[blp]

Dr Master's take:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2836

Moisture from Tropical Storm Trudy, which made landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico about 75 miles east-southeast of Acapulco on Saturday morning, has moved northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. A large area of low pressure (93L) is forming there, and will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida on Wednesday through Friday. Satellite loops show the low has plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, but these thunderstorms are poorly organized, due to high wind shear of 30 knots. Water vapor satellite images show there is dry air from Mexico flowing eastwards over the central Gulf of Mexico, which may slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm, about 29.5°C. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Wednesday - Friday, giving 93L a better chance to develop in the later part of the week. The Monday morning runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all showed support for some slow development of 93L this week. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. The low should move generally eastward or east-northeastward during the week, spreading heavy rains, with rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" likely over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida.

[weatherwindow]

what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.

As you said it is a possible scenario, if you have a strong front coming down that steers the system further south than east, that might cause it to slide passed to the south.

slide to the south or if it stays farther north run into hostile conditions..either way this is going to have trouble as it approaches florida

In addition to the trof strength, trof sharpness may be a determining factor wrt the track...ie a broad based trof would likely result in a flatter more southerly track

[SFLcane]

Recon on standby for tommorow. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[FireRat]

Wow, the invest is really becoming more and more impressive, with this amazing scenario beginning to show up for Florida! Late October is an infamous time of year for the peninsula, Wilma in 2005 and the Tampa hurricane of 1925 to name a few...both struck around October 25. That is a cutoff date here in Florida for majors it seems...way too early to say we will see another big storm strike us from the southwest, but I agree that this setup is one to watch closely as the week progresses in case history decides to repeat itself.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

When do we anticipate the rain will start here in South Florida, I have a major series 6 CE exam to take on Wednesday.

[SouthFLTropics]

I know we are a long way from determining eventual strength and track of this system but here is something to consider. Regardless of the strength of the actual system I think we can expect to get some pretty good rain and winds out of this. The pressure gradient will be on the increase and I would expect the winds to accelerate well in advance of the system. Something else to consider is that storms that ride along a front such as this one can be enhanced by the trough. Wilma immediately comes to mind as does Tropical Storm Mitch from 1998. Mitch only came across us as a 55 mph tropical storm but was being so enhanced by the front that it packed a pretty good punch when it came through. The one saving grace is just like Mitch and Wilma the exit to the NE should come quick if it gets grabbed by the front.

SFT

[AdamFirst]

When do we anticipate the rain will start here in South Florida, I have a major series 6 CE exam to take on Wednesday.

Wednesday should be the start as NWS Miami reintroduces POPS to the forecast, but the end of the week has the chance of being the worst.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks Adam,

So hopefully Wed will be a normal S. Florida day with a normal chance for rain.