ATL: Ex NINE

weatherwindow · #61 Postby **weatherwindow** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:31 pm

According to the 200pm TWD...NHC is carrying the low at 20deg N 95degW....however that location is based on 11am obs...certainly could have migrated...Grtz from KW

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

Hammy · #62 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:38 pm

Euro has it better defined this run, rather than opening up and getting entrained into the trough.

TheStormExpert · #63 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:39 pm

Hammy wrote:Euro has it better defined this run, rather than opening up and getting entrained into the trough.

Also looks like the Euro has it the furthest south of all the models.

#64 Postby **HurriGuy** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:47 pm

EURO almost looks like the outlier as of now.

Miami Storm Tracker · #65 Postby **Miami Storm Tracker** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:51 pm

At work any chance someone would be able to show the map of some of these runs?

#66 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:57 pm

18z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2014102018, , BEST, 0, 198N, 956W, 25, 1007, LO

#67 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:59 pm

Initialized a bit farther south and east from what I thought earlier.

#68 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:44 pm

One thing that is particularly impressive is the low level moisture inflow that is flying into the circulation all the way from south of Jamaica!

Sanibel · #69 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:45 pm

This appears to be coming together quickly and trying to form an offshore center.

#70 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:48 pm

Looks like there a spin down around 95N, 19.5W:

low-level vorticity is ramping up big-time:

SouthFLTropics · #71 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:50 pm

I look to have the center pegged at or around 20.5N and 95.5W. Looks like a good spin going right around there.

SFT

#72 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:54 pm

Here is another big-picture look of this invest to give you and idea of the size. It continues to tap moisture from the EPAC and even NW Caribbean now with "bands" developing (one stretching into the Caribbean and one down into the EPAC):

#73 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:54 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I look to have the center pegged at or around 20.5N and 95.5W. Looks like a good spin going right around there.

SFT

Yep, dead on. Looks like a small hook feature there.

#74 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:59 pm

I agree, low pressure seems to be just east of Veracruz, looks to be still a little broad but pressures continue to drop now down to at least 1007mb.
I like the idea of a piece of energy getting pulled by the trough but the main low pressure area getting left behind in the NW Caribbean, from there who knows. IMO.

SouthFLTropics · #75 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:00 pm

I don't want to sound the alarm too soon and then be accused of being the boy who cried wolf BUT...

The way this thing is looking now and the way the models are trending towards South Florida, we could be seeing our first real credible threat in quite some time.

A long ways to go and a lot of model watching to do but this certainly has my attention.

SFT

#76 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:02 pm

Ryan maue Twitter ..

@RyanMaue: Result in 6-days is a potential major hurricane in Caribbean at time of year when Wilma scenario heightens antenna http://t.co/hpXrp2QLZO

#77 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:05 pm

Alright, I'm throwing my $5.58 lunch money "All In"! Am betting on a Max. strength GOM system as: T.S. - 60mph, 992mb Wed. night ANY TAKERS?????

floridasun78 · #78 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:06 pm

what i dont get that gfs show low over fl by oct 29 but that suppose be over south fl by end of week???

#79 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:11 pm

SFLcane wrote:Ryan maue Twitter ..

@RyanMaue: Result in 6-days is a potential major hurricane in Caribbean at time of year when Wilma scenario heightens antenna http://t.co/hpXrp2QLZO

Not sure I follow? Prediction? Or was Ryan translating any one of the present models?

#80 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:15 pm

NWS Miami discussion snippet just released and new graphic on NWS Miami homepage:

.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

ATL: Ex NINE

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