Texas Fall-2014

[Portastorm]

There's actually three distilleries in the Austin area who make a good vodka. Deep Eddy is one ... then there's Tito's ...and Dripping Springs vodka. But I'm off topic.

Putting the finishing touches on the winter forecast which I think many here will like.

[Tireman4]

Please hurry. The crops are depending on it. Bye bye Lucille... sigh

[TeamPlayersBlue]

the 06z at 384 looks like a dream lol. All that moisture and with a massive arctic airmass coming down. To be honest, i expect events like this to occur this winter

[asd123]

the 06z at 384 looks like a dream lol. All that moisture and with a massive arctic airmass coming down. To be honest, i expect events like this to occur this winter

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_47.png

Yeah and snow is forecasted all the way down to Atlanta

[TheProfessor]

Yeah, the end of the GFS runs have shown an arctic air mass pushing through the country in Late October to early November for the past few days.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Okay locusts which winter is the analogue for this winter? 2009/10 or 2010/11

And you can have all of my normal cold and snow!!!

[Ntxw]

Portastorm has released the PWC winter outlook (fully endorsed) over in the Texas winter thread, have a look

[South Texas Storms]

Unfortunately, the near term continues to look dry with no good widespread rain chances expected at least in the next 5 days. Hopefully the subtropical jet stream begins to send us some rainfall in the coming weeks.

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately, the near term continues to look dry with no good widespread rain chances expected at least in the next 5 days. Hopefully the subtropical jet stream begins to send us some rainfall in the coming weeks.

Yeah, it does look dry for us in the next 5-7 days. Been interesting watching the GFS at the end of each run over the last few days ... consistently showing a major-league cold front for the first week of November which would drop high temps in Austin, for example, into the upper 50s/60-ish.

[somethingfunny]

Looks like the EPAC has shut down and we have no potential rainfall anytime soon.

[weatherdude1108]

I knew it has been drier and warmer than normal. I usually expect wet and cool by now.

October Weather Trending Warmer and Drier than Normal: Although the Hill Country and Central Texas regions have seen at least some rain this month, totals so far have been below normal. The month of October is typically one of the wettest months of the year but this year, October is certainly not living up to that reputation.

A check on rainfall data through October 19th indicates totals are generally running around 1-1.5 inches below normal. It's been even drier further south towards San Antonio:

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[gpsnowman]

Great work Porta!! This winter should be a beauty. Now, as far as autumn is concerned, when will it begin? Way too warm with temps near 90 later this week according to the morning local weather. Boo. I am starving for some prolonged cool fall weather. Anything positive on the horizon after this mini fall heat wave?

[JDawg512]

I don't see anything worthwhile at this time.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Lots of moisture is headed to Canada and the NW territories over the next couple weeks. Be nice to see the snow pack thicken up there.

[weatherdude1108]

Don't get me wrong, this is beautiful Texas Fall weather. But can anyone explain meteorologically why are stuck in this tedious, DRY weather pattern rut, especially as we are entering an El Niño phase?

[TheProfessor]

Well if the 0Z GFS were to verify it looks like North Texas could have its first freeze on Nov 2nd

[Ntxw]

Well if the 0Z GFS were to verify it looks like North Texas could have its first freeze on Nov 2nd

You're onto something my friend catching the hints. As mentioned before there is a very -EPO tank coming at the end of this month. It's going to lead the floodgates to Arctic air open. The CFSv2 runs have been shooting a dagger of anomalous cold down the spine of the Rockies. Keep an eye open as this blocking develops. Ridging is coming Alaska. With SOI tanking beware.

[Ntxw]

Don't get me wrong, this is beautiful Texas Fall weather. But can anyone explain meteorologically why are stuck in this tedious, DRY weather pattern rut, especially as we are entering an El Niño phase?

The Atlantic has dominated the past 2 weeks with tropical systems. All of the tropical feed and storms have been fed into the train in the Atlantic by the westerlies eastward leaving us under subsidence (Fay, Gonzalo, and other disturbances). The WPAC and EPAC have been quiet due to the intraseasonal changes of the MJO with no tropical connection from the Pacific. When the Atlantic is active (and there is no systems landfalling in Texas) it's not good news for us.

[srainhoutx]

Nice looking -EPO/-AO pattern developing. Stepping down...

[Portastorm]

I love it! Srainhoutx's first "stepping down" comment of the Fall season. Only good things will come of it.

Yeah, the GFS has been quite consistent in showing a very strong frontal passage Halloween weekend or shortly thereafter. With the SOI tanking as Ntxw noted, we should see a more active southern jet and more storminess early next month. Enjoy the nice warm weather now before the bottom starts falling out, folks.