ATL: Ex NINE

[hurricanehunter69]

I'm starting to think this thing has a "chance" to be our third major...?

[chaser1]

what i dont get that gfs show low over fl by oct 29 but that suppose be over south fl by end of week???

A few of us here are kinda going with the idea that any low pressure over S. Florida by middle to end of week, may be a wave forming along the nearly stalled front and sliding east. My original thought was leaning toward a low over S. Florida originally coming from a mid level piece of energy from 93L that might had been pulled into and moving along the front. For the moment though, 93L might have a bit more formidable core and be fairly large too. Chances are any front making it down to S. Fla. will simply have weak waves of low pressure forming along the front and sliding over to the east.

[WYNweather]

Once more this year bad weather for the boat show. Seems that the boat show has been a good prognosticator of a storm. So much so they are moving it to November.

"“The weather charts show that even though it’s just a week later it considerably reduces the chances of the torrential rain and high winds,” Efrem “Skip” Zimbalist III, who owns show producer Show Management, Soundings Trade Only Today"

See full story
http://www.tradeonlytoday.com/2013/09/f ... e-in-2015/

[wxman57]

So far, I'm not seeing anything to suggest a Hurricane, much less a major hurricane (as of yet). Just looked at the high-res Euro and it's solution doesn't look too unreasonable. The low is more of a hybrid by the time it's in the NE Caribbean. The Euro clearly depicts it as frontal, with plenty of cool/dry air flowing across the Gulf toward the Yucatan.

By next Tuesday, the Euro has the low crossing Cuba and moving into the SE Gulf, with a frontal system trailing off to the east across the southern FL Peninsula and still more cool/dry air flowing into the eastern Gulf. The low is depicted as frontal and non-tropical in nature, with a large area of light winds surrounded by winds of 15-25 kts.

Will the above happen? Maybe. I'm not so confident about anything after Thu/Fri of this week much less a week from then. But I'd believe the Euro over the other models.

[gatorcane]

So far, I'm not seeing anything to suggest a Hurricane, much less a major hurricane (as of yet). Just looked at the high-res Euro and it's solution doesn't look too unreasonable. The low is more of a hybrid by the time it's in the NE Caribbean. The Euro clearly depicts it as frontal, with plenty of cool/dry air flowing across the Gulf toward the Yucatan.

By next Tuesday, the Euro has the low crossing Cuba and moving into the SE Gulf, with a frontal system trailing off to the east across the southern FL Peninsula and still more cool/dry air flowing into the eastern Gulf. The low is depicted as frontal and non-tropical in nature, with a large area of light winds surrounded by winds of 15-25 kts.

Will the above happen? Maybe. I'm not so confident about anything after Thu/Fri of this week much less a week from then. But I'd believe the Euro over the other models.

Perhaps but the Euro seems an outlier right now and hasn't done exactly the best with this system so far though if you compare the 00Z and 12Z Euro runs there is a big change it what it is showing which is leaning more towards the overall model consensus - which is this system getting blocked by ridging building in the Western Atlantic.

Last week the Euro was turning it due south into Mexico and showed an unrealistically strong cold front that squashed this completely in the BOC and we can see that is not going to verify. GFS has been handling it better from the get-go plus has support from the other global models.

[psyclone]

tempering expectations is a reasonable default setting this year. I'm not believing until I see it. It is fun to have something moderately interesting to watch for a change...

[tropicwatch]

There appears to be a fairly decent circulation forming but the upper level winds are very high right now.

[wxman57]

The Euro has been much better with the pattern across the U.S. and Gulf than the GFS. GFS totally missed last week's cold front from a week out, and it was quite strong. I wouldn't believe the GFS at all beyond 3-4 days.

[blp]

NHC going Red:

1. Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[NDG]

The Euro has been much better with the pattern across the U.S. and Gulf than the GFS. GFS totally missed last week's cold front from a week out, and it was quite strong. I wouldn't believe the GFS at all beyond 3-4 days.

I don't know about the Euro being that good during the last few weeks, it has been bias in cutting off UL troughs and it did not do that well with Gonzalo's track early on because it was cutting off the mid level trough in the MS Valley while the GFS once it caught on with the deep trough was correct with it being more progressive.

[NDG]

Station off of Veracruz now reporting a pressure of 1006 mb, WNW winds.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=verv4

[ObsessedMiami]

Can someone just clarify the timing of this, if its anything? I am going away this weekend from Miami and returning Sunday. Nothing that soon, right? Perhaps in the area by Tuesday?

[gatorcane]

Station off of Veracruz now reporting a pressure of 1006 mb, WNW winds.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=verv4

Interesting. Clouds are also thickening around where the low is at too. We also note some westerly shear still impacting the system but not enough for it to rip it apart.

[Dean4Storms]

My 2 cents worth and of course nothing official is that we get a frontal type low that splits dragging some of the energy at mid levels across the FL straits but leaves behind the surface reflection over in the Western Carib. that sits deepens and then comes northward. Whether this comes northward more toward the FL Straits or into the SE Gulf will all depend on where the surface low becomes stationary.

[weatherwindow]

what i dont get that gfs show low over fl by oct 29 but that suppose be over south fl by end of week???

A few of us here are kinda going with the idea that any low pressure over S. Florida by middle to end of week, may be a wave forming along the nearly stalled front and sliding east. My original thought was leaning toward a low over S. Florida originally coming from a mid level piece of energy from 93L that might had been pulled into and moving along the front. For the moment though, 93L might have a bit more formidable core and be fairly large too. Chances are any front making it down to S. Fla. will simply have weak waves of low pressure forming along the front and sliding over to the east.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

The 18Z GFS provides a good visual of your explanations, chaser and dean....93l tracks over the Yucatan into the Yucatan Channel as a 1005 circulation...at that point a lobe of that circulation is drawn NE over SFL on 10/25...the primary energy is temporarily stranded in the NW Carib, strengthens significantly and is drawn north over Cuba and subsequently FL on 10/28

[TheStormExpert]

Shear needs to seriously come down if anything ever wants to form from this. Currently in the GoM shear values are 30-60kts, and the W. Caribbean doesn't look much different.

[SFLcane]

Could easily never make it out of the BOC its window for development appears small heading for yucatan

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have changed little
in organization since this afternoon. This system has the potential
to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later
in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge
with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or
northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow
afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[floridasun78]

so look likely be subtropical what wx was saying be rainmaker for fl

[wxman57]

I don't think we can say that anything is "likely" just yet.