ATL: Ex NINE

[ozonepete]

Shear needs to seriously come down if anything ever wants to form from this. Currently in the GoM shear values are 30-60kts, and the W. Caribbean doesn't look much different.

The models, especially GFS, anticipate this to move into the NW Caribbean by Thursday/Friday and most forecast shear to be very light there at that time. Seems quite reasonable.

[SouthFLTropics]

There is definite clear rotation in the BOC and unless my eyes are playing tricks on me it appears to have begun making its move eastward.

SFT

[fci]

So far, I'm not seeing anything to suggest a Hurricane, much less a major hurricane (as of yet). Just looked at the high-res Euro and it's solution doesn't look too unreasonable. The low is more of a hybrid by the time it's in the NE Caribbean. The Euro clearly depicts it as frontal, with plenty of cool/dry air flowing across the Gulf toward the Yucatan.

By next Tuesday, the Euro has the low crossing Cuba and moving into the SE Gulf, with a frontal system trailing off to the east across the southern FL Peninsula and still more cool/dry air flowing into the eastern Gulf. The low is depicted as frontal and non-tropical in nature, with a large area of light winds surrounded by winds of 15-25 kts.

Will the above happen? Maybe. I'm not so confident about anything after Thu/Fri of this week much less a week from then. But I'd believe the Euro over the other models.

You didn't intend to say NE Caribbean, did you?

[gatorcane]

850MB vorticity is strong:

[TheStormExpert]

Shear needs to seriously come down if anything ever wants to form from this. Currently in the GoM shear values are 30-60kts, and the W. Caribbean doesn't look much different.

The models, especially GFS, anticipate this to move into the NW Caribbean by Thursday/Friday and most forecast shear to be very light there at that time. Seems quite reasonable.

The question is how long it stays in the NS Caribbean? That is key to how much it could strengthen.

[TheStormExpert]

Since 92L seems unlikely to develop this should become Hanna. So the curse of the "I" storm seems unlikely.

[ozonepete]

Since 92L seems unlikely to develop this should become Hanna. So the curse of the "I" storm seems unlikely.

That's good because the "I" storm name - Isaias - is pretty much unpronounceable for most Americans, lol.

[tropicwatch]

Since 92L seems unlikely to develop this should become Hanna. So the curse of the "I" storm seems unlikely.

That's good because the "I" storm name - Isaias - is pretty much unpronounceable for most Americans, lol.

Bad form

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2014102100, , BEST, 0, 195N, 952W, 25, 1006, LO

[Hammy]

"Highly- unlikely''

Shear appears to be dropping.

[ronjon]

Well given we already have low pressure in the BOC, near unanimous support from global models, and NHC odds of 60%, I'd give likely pretty good odds, lol.

[ozonepete]

Well given we already have low pressure in the BOC, near unanimous support from global models, and NHC odds of 60%, I'd give likely pretty good odds, lol.

Well said. The models and the NHC are already well aware of the negatives; it's not like they're not including them in their calculations. It's not what the shear is now, but what it's forecast to be, that matters.

[TheStormExpert]

"Highly- unlikely''

Shear appears to be dropping.

Where? Only in the small vicinity of the Yucatsn Channel does it look to be dropping.

[TheStormExpert]

Well given we already have low pressure in the BOC, near unanimous support from global models, and NHC odds of 60%, I'd give likely pretty good odds, lol.

Well said. The models and the NHC are already well aware of the negatives; it's not like they're not including them in their calculations. It's not what the shear is now, but what it's forecast to be, that matters.

I know it is likely to develop one way or another at this point, but there have been many times this season where the NHC's TWO development percentages have greatly busted. (Mostly due to them buying into the GFS's many phantom storms this year. )

[ozonepete]

"Highly- unlikely''

Shear appears to be dropping.

Where? Only in the small vicinity of the Yucatsn Channel does it look to be dropping.

Watch the satellite loops, especially rgb. You can see it happening. Btw, west-southwest to southwest shear that is currently occurring is actually good for this developing low - the fast upper level winds are evacuating air from the top of the low, allowing for surface convergence and thus for thunderstorms to redevelop and intensify. As long as the developing MLC and LLC do not move further north, this shear is more beneficial than harmful.

[Hammy]

Well given we already have low pressure in the BOC, near unanimous support from global models, and NHC odds of 60%, I'd give likely pretty good odds, lol.

Well said. The models and the NHC are already well aware of the negatives; it's not like they're not including them in their calculations. It's not what the shear is now, but what it's forecast to be, that matters.

I know it is likely to develop one way or another at this point, but there have been many times this season where the NHC's TWO development percentages have greatly busted. (Mostly due to them buying into the GFS's many phantom storms this year. )

To be fair, the ones that busted were beyond 48 hours and for waves that hadn't yet emerged. I would say this has a decent chance of developing, I think the biggest question is will it be fully tropical or hybrid.

[ozonepete]

To be fair, the ones that busted were beyond 48 hours and for waves that hadn't yet emerged. I would say this has a decent chance of developing, I think the biggest question is will it be fully tropical or hybrid.

I agree. Using climatology and the forecast conditions as they are now, if it doesn't develop until Friday it should start out subtropical around southern Florida and Cuba but after that, if it does indeed hang out for days in that area it would most likely convert from subtropical to tropical during that time period.

[gatorcane]

00Z position and movement:

At 0000 UTC, 21 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.5°N and 95.2°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 2 kt at a bearing of 75 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... /al932014/

[chaser1]

Well, I walked away for a few hours, but certainly expected continued organization. Convection sure has waned.... diurnal? Water vapor shows the dry air on it west side. Center looks to be at 20 & 95W. I'm not sure if that indicates the eastward motion already, or simply a reorganized COC. Either way, the development curve it appeared to be on has at least temporarily halted. I'm not so sure that they'll send recon out if still looking like it's present self; Perhaps they'll fly on Wed. if model support continues. Then, I'd guess the Gulfstream would serve the greatest benefit.

[ozonepete]

Wow right on cue.

Within 72 hours it will be captured in the present conditions i don't see 93L getting any better then it is now a TD at best.

And I promise I won't save this prediction of yours and bring it up on Thursday or Friday.