ATL: Ex-NINE - Models
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- northjaxpro
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I agree with you SFLcane. For The most part this season, the GFS has been off the mark for sure.
But, it did do better with Gonzalo and in this instance with this current invest, it has been latching onto something organizing in this region since last week. So, I personally in this instance wouldn't discount what the GFS is depicting regarding the evoulution of this Invest 93L down the road.
But, it did do better with Gonzalo and in this instance with this current invest, it has been latching onto something organizing in this region since last week. So, I personally in this instance wouldn't discount what the GFS is depicting regarding the evoulution of this Invest 93L down the road.
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- SFLcane
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Re:
northjaxpro wrote:I agree with you SFLcane. For The most part this season, the GFS has been off the mark for sure.
But, it did do better with Gonzalo and in this instance with this current invest, it has been latching onto something organizing in this region since last week. So, I personally in this instance wouldn't discount what the GFS is depicting regarding the evoulution of this Invest 93L down the road.
I will believe it when i see it.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Re:
SFLcane wrote:northjaxpro wrote:I agree with you SFLcane. For The most part this season, the GFS has been off the mark for sure.
But, it did do better with Gonzalo and in this instance with this current invest, it has been latching onto something organizing in this region since last week. So, I personally in this instance wouldn't discount what the GFS is depicting regarding the evoulution of this Invest 93L down the road.
I will believe it when i see it.
Fair enough. This is the intriguing aspect always with monitoring the tropics.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
12z Euro ensembles clustered today on keeping this in the NW Carribean.
12z
Comparison 00z
12z
Comparison 00z
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If this does manage to form (I'm personally a bit skeptical of this myself, at least as far as it being tropical) it looks to certainly be one of the more interesting tracks we've seen.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re:
Hammy wrote:If this does manage to form (I'm personally a bit skeptical of this myself, at least as far as it being tropical) it looks to certainly be one of the more interesting tracks we've seen.
Is it even possible to get Subtropical systems at or near 20N and south.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Looking at the 00z Euro versus the 12z you can clearly see that the 12z does not stay attached to front as was depicted on the 00z. What happens tonight might change again but the trend today has been less frontal and more tropical in nature. I think the intensity forecast for the Euro is probably right because I don't see conditions in the SE gulf being too favorable for any significant strengthening. It has to stay in the NW Carribean to be strong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
So I notice a lot of tracks "end" in the northwest Carribean with it just meandering around. Any sense of where it would go afterwards?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1972/AGNES/track.gif
Track/setup is reminding me of this, except starting further west and with the main track going further east, especially with the secondary low forming to the east in some of the runs.
Track/setup is reminding me of this, except starting further west and with the main track going further east, especially with the secondary low forming to the east in some of the runs.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Hammy wrote:http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1972/AGNES/track.gif
Track/setup is reminding me of this, except starting further west and with the main track going further east, especially with the secondary low forming to the east in some of the runs.
Agnes formed in the middle of June as opposed to now which is mid/late October.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Animation: NCEP Ensemble Mean Prec
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_ussm_animation.html
CIMSS
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
COD MET infrared
http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=Yucatan-ir-24
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_ussm_animation.html
CIMSS
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
COD MET infrared
http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=Yucatan-ir-24
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re:
Alyono wrote:0Z MU has this as purely frontal.
It spins up a second system in the Caribbean
I honestly think this is a plausable scenario where 93L causes 2 different systems by having the initial surface low take off ENE because of shear while the MLC forms its own low basically what most of the models are showing at this point even including the best of the best models, the Euro
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- Hurricaneman
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The GFS is either bad or is off its meds because while the piece in the caribbean is possible its not just going to meander in the Bahamas into Florida IMO
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ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
spiral wrote:Hammy wrote:Every single model develops this at this point and a lot take it east--is it pretty likely at this point that we could have a tropical storm moving straight east across the Yucatan and emerging in the Caribbean?
EC 12Z Dropped it like a bag of spuds.
http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/models/ecmwf/surf/pmsl
I beg to differ: It simply doesn't move it into the region shown above.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014102012®ion=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=144
Euro has been consistently developing it now for several runs. Not only that but your link shows 500mb winds.
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Re: Re:
spiral wrote:EC's result Sunday.
Oddly the Euro now seems to be trending in the direction of the GFS, moving some sort of frontal low out and developing the leftover in the NW Caribbean. The situation is getting confusing for sure.
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Re:
Alyono wrote:0Z MU has this as purely frontal.
It spins up a second system in the Caribbean
the fully frontal idea on mu has and still seems the most reasonable solution. spinning up a major hurricand doesnt seem resoanable exepecially since the gfs fails so often when it does that...im sticking with the converyer belt of moisture with waves riding along it and finally this mess clearing out of south florida and no major spin up of anything
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