ATL: Ex NINE

[Windsong]

Thank you wxman57. I've been a member of this board a long time. I start looking at this and suddenly it's a foreign language and i could make no sense of anything. All I could think was OH NO they will evacuate the island and I would be able to get to the ship!

Thank you again !

[NDG]

Very clearly on hr visible satellite loop that the LLC is near 19.3N and 94.1W, a MLC is seen well to the east of it approaching the Yucatan P.
My guess is if convection increases more during the afternoon near the LLC this will be upgraded to a TD by the recon.

[WPBWeather]

Thank you wxman57. I've been a member of this board a long time. I start looking at this and suddenly it's a foreign language and i could make no sense of anything. All I could think was OH NO they will evacuate the island and I would be able to get to the ship!

Thank you again !

Maybe Wxman will also provide an 80 percent refund to you if he is wrong.

[gatorcane]

A low pressure area in the far southern Bay of Campeche continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level
winds could become a little more conducive for development by
tomorrow, and this system still has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the
week, the low also has some potential for development over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea if it remains separate from a cold front.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the disturbance. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[blp]

Very clearly on hr visible satellite loop that the LLC is near 19.3N and 94.1W, a MLC is seen well to the east of it approaching the Yucatan P.
My guess is if convection increases more during the afternoon near the LLC this will be upgraded to a TD by the recon.

Yep, good thing the NASA site is still up.

[wxman57]

Recon isn't finding much. Very weak and broad LLC at best, and no significant convection. Nothing to upgrade today. Can see a little eddy on visible imagery at 19.15N/93.9W. That's what the plane was flying by.

PS: Yeah, that's the eddy in the post above this one.

[boca]

Is Florida in the clear yet w 93L?

[northjaxpro]

Is Florida in the clear yet w 93L?

No immediate threat from 93L anytime soon. Just heavy rainfall from a frontal system the next few days across extreme South Florida.

If the main low-level vorticity gets left behind from 93L over the NW Caribbean late this week, and doesn't dissipate, it could meander around in weak steering currents for a few days in that region. Some models are trying to draw it north into next week. Should this happen, then that would be when people across the Florida peninsula will have to closely monitor.

[wxman57]

Is Florida in the clear yet w 93L?

I think you'll get some rain associated with the cold front in your area over the next couple of days, but nothing from 93L through early next week.

EC starting to come in now...

[gatorcane]

A low pressure area in the far southern Bay of Campeche continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level
winds could become a little more conducive for development by
tomorrow, and this system still has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the
week, the low also has some potential for development over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea if it remains separate from a cold front.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the disturbance. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[drezee]

Recon isn't finding much. Very weak and broad LLC at best, and no significant convection. Nothing to upgrade today. Can see a little eddy on visible imagery at 19.15N/93.9W. That's what the plane was flying by.

PS: Yeah, that's the eddy in the post above this one.

So far Recon has found NW, W, and SW winds (couple of gaps in reports), but no clean wind field. Lowest pressure exp. is 1005.0mb

[drezee]

I will say that I have seen a vortex message with less...in those instances, development was emanate and well forecasted in the GOM to head toward land. We are not in that situation, so I would not suspect an upgrade unless more definitive data is collected.

[wxman57]

No organized convection, very weak LLC = no TD.

[Alyono]

am surprised they even flew today

[SFLcane]

Should be interesting to see what happens once disturbance moves into the caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Nice LLC but not a lot of convection.ASCAT pass made at 1 PM EDT.

[jlauderdal]

am surprised they even flew today

me too...i posted this morning about them burning up fuel for this..

[wxman57]

Luis, where did you get that ASCAT image? I don't see any recent passes on the only ASCAT URL I know of:

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php

[floridasun78]

sat pic still sat pic for oct 20 not working still did we loss sat from noaa??

[cycloneye]

Luis, where did you get that ASCAT image? I don't see any recent passes on the only ASCAT URL I know of:

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php

Someone posted it at Dr Masters blog.