ATL: Ex NINE

[psyclone]

So much for the theory that the NHC has looser upgrade standards for systems in the open ocean vs near the coast. I like the call. the convection is lacking in organization/tenacity at this point. If it changes I'm sure they'll pull the trigger.

Had the winds been stronger they would've likely upgraded. so the theory (likely) stands.

This has missed it's chance to get upgraded, unless they are flying another plane out tomorrow.

I would think they would upgrade if we can get a vigorous convective burst tonight.

[floridasun78]

so likely will not be ts or hurr in nw carribbean? because front

[jlauderdal]

so likely will not be ts or hurr in nw carribbean? because front

yes

[floridasun78]

so likely will not be ts or hurr in nw carribbean? because front

yes

that good news

[WPBWeather]

so likely will not be ts or hurr in nw carribbean? because front

yes

Care to share your special data on this pronouncement?

[jlauderdal]

so likely will not be ts or hurr in nw carribbean? because front

yes

Care to share your special data on this pronouncement?

unfortunately i don't have any special data or secret govt access..looked at the models, past experience, posts from a few on this thread and came to that conclusion..time will tell if it verifies

[gatorcane]

18z GFS shows a hurricane in the NW Caribbean

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The upper-level environment should become more favorable for development of 93L in a few days once the main trough and associated shortwave both lift out and anticyclonic flow develops aloft across the northwestern Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

The upper-level environment should become more favorable for development of 93L in a few days once the main trough and associated shortwave both lift out and anticyclonic flow develops aloft across the northwestern Caribbean.

Do you have proof?

[ozonepete]

The upper-level environment should become more favorable for development of 93L in a few days once the main trough and associated shortwave both lift out and anticyclonic flow develops aloft across the northwestern Caribbean.

Do you have proof?

Well I'm sure he does, but I'll do it for him. Go to this link and look at the GFS forecast for shear, 700 mb moisture and strength of low starting around Monday. Conditions will become quite favorable. Of course NHC doesn't go out that far, but there are forecast data like the GFS that do. We'll just have to watch. And remember NHC is still 50% for next 5 days.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in
the southern Bay of Campeche have not become any better organized
during the past few hours. However, upper-level winds could become
more conducive for development later tonight and Wednesday, and this
system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche late Wednesday or
early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical cyclone formation
appears unlikely due to interaction with a cold front while the
system is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Campeche
and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress
of this system as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued
with short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

The upper-level environment should become more favorable for development of 93L in a few days once the main trough and associated shortwave both lift out and anticyclonic flow develops aloft across the northwestern Caribbean.

Do you have proof?

Well I'm sure he does, but I'll do it for him. Go to this link and look at the GFS forecast for shear, 700 mb moisture and strength of low starting around Monday. Conditions will become quite favorable. Of course NHC doesn't go out that far, but there are forecast data like the GFS that do. We'll just have to watch. And remember NHC is still 50% for next 5 days.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html

Until the Euro comes on board with these favorable conditions I'm not buying it.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

And it's fine to be skeptical, but I hope you're aware that the ECMWF is not a good genesis model, especially dealing with systems south of 25N. It missed most of last year's systems.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: And it's fine to be skeptical, but I hope you're aware that the ECMWF is not a good genesis model, especially dealing with systems south of 25N. It missed most of last year's systems.

Well what about this year?

[Hammy]

:uarrow: And it's fine to be skeptical, but I hope you're aware that the ECMWF is not a good genesis model, especially dealing with systems south of 25N. It missed most of last year's systems.

Well what about this year?

The Euro has actually done well this year, at the very short and very long ranges. You've both probably seen me talk at length about the medium-range problems the model seems to have. Every single storm this year has shown up in the 216/240 hour point, been dropped, then shown back up a few days before development, and only one storm (one in front of Edouard) showed up that didn't actually develop.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: And it's fine to be skeptical, but I hope you're aware that the ECMWF is not a good genesis model, especially dealing with systems south of 25N. It missed most of last year's systems.

Well what about this year?

The Euro has actually done well this year, at the very short and very long ranges. You've both probably seen me talk at length about the medium-range problems the model seems to have. Every single storm this year has shown up in the 216/240 hour point, been dropped, then shown back up a few days before development, and only one storm (one in front of Edouard) showed up that didn't actually develop.

Good point Hammy.

Another thing I will add is that had we gone with the medium to long-range Euro on this system last week, this system would have already been buried in Mexico. Then it showed it becoming a subtropical system in the NE GOM well west of the rest of the guidance which never happened.

The GFS has been ahead of the Euro this system this whole time. Still wouldn't surprise me if the Euro started showing something a bit stronger in the NW Caribbean. Remember the GEM and NAVGEM (as well as some Asian models apparently) have suggested something ramping up in the NW Caribbean.

50% chance of development in the NW Caribbean looks good to me right now and we will await the 00Z guidance.

[ozonepete]

Oh my pals on S2K! All of you are making good points (Hammy, Twx13 and gatorcane) and backing it up with real science, real data. You guys make this a great forum.

I think we can all agree 50/50 is a good place to be right now and that nothing significant will happen until this weekend, after it has crossed the Yucatan. And none of us needs to be reminded that the NW Caribbean in October has produced monsters, so if the polar continental front does not go past southern Florida this could be a significant tropical cyclone.

[sunnyday]

So is the polar front supposed to go past South Florida at this point? Thank you for the info.

[wzrgirl1]

I agree with ozone. Nothing will happen for a few days, hence the 50 % through five days. I think by Friday we may have a better idea of what the storm will do, if it will be named, and where it will go.

[ozonepete]

So is the polar front supposed to go past South Florida at this point? Thank you for the info.

The current analysis by the excellent NCEP/WPC has the front making it all the way through south Florida and then reaching central Cuba on Sunday but then washing out on Sunday night/Monday. That is why this is such a tough forecast. If this tropical low does stay at least 50 to 100 miles south of Cuba and the front does dissipate on Sunday, then the low could drift under weak steering winds south of western Cuba early next week and that would give it a chance to strengthen considerably, especially if the shear stays low there as is currently forecast. Just way too far out to tell right now.