ATL: Ex NINE

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

At 0000 UTC, 22 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.4°N and 93.2°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 85 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb.

[wzrgirl1]

1000 mb and still an invest. I find that quite interesting. I guess that is due to little convection?

[ozonepete]

1000 mb and still an invest. I find that quite interesting. I guess that is due to little convection?

Well there's more than a little, but not enough.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

1000 mb and still an invest. I find that quite interesting. I guess that is due to little convection?

Yes. For reference, here's the definition of a tropical cyclone, "A warm-core, non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center."

At the end of the day, classification is somewhat subjective (what is organized? if the convection is well-organized but not atop the center, should the system be classified?) though.

[wzrgirl1]

what is the difference between a center of circulation and a well organized center of circulation.....isn't a center a center? Is a center of circulation stacked?

[Hammy]

Did something knock out the satellites? ASCAT isn't showing anything and SSD hasn't updated since yesterday.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

what is the difference between a center of circulation and a well organized center of circulation.....isn't a center a center? Is a center of circulation stacked?

A well-organized center of circulation should be circular in nature, not elongated (elliptical). That's the difference.

[NDG]

So is the polar front supposed to go past South Florida at this point? Thank you for the info.

The current analysis by the excellent NCEP/WPC has the front making it all the way through south Florida and then reaching central Cuba on Sunday but then washing out on Sunday night/Monday. That is why this is such a tough forecast. If this tropical low does stay at least 50 to 100 miles south of Cuba and the front does dissipate on Sunday, then the low could drift under weak steering winds south of western Cuba early next week and that would give it a chance to strengthen considerably, especially if the shear stays low there as is currently forecast. Just way too far out to tell right now.

I will hate to call it a polar cold front when 70 deg dewpoint isotherm does not go any further south than the 23rd latitude in the NW Caribbean, a real polar cold front brings down dewpoints at least in the 50s all the way down to the central Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Did something knock out the satellites? ASCAT isn't showing anything and SSD hasn't updated since yesterday.

Yeah they have been out all day. I have been using the NASA sat imagery for now.

Latest SAT image. By the way convection is on the increase:

[HurriGuy]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

burst of convection near the center. Big mess right now. I wouldn't classify yet.

[gatorcane]

Here is a close-up view with a large convection burst starting. Considering we are talking about a 1000MB area of low pressure, it won't take much to classify it, looks to be on it's way.

[HurriGuy]

Does look like an overall trend of increasing convection. It is in just a hostile environment now, I wouldn't expect much of nothing till it can get into west Caribbean….if the circulation survives

[alienstorm]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

Good site to see this given present satellite pictures issues. Some increase and good tight circulation.

[HurriGuy]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

If it can get in east side of Yucatan and tuck itself down there where the sheer is not going to be near as bad and wait for front to die out, I see where the GFS is going.

[blp]

[blp]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=GulfOfMexico-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&PAGETYPE=static&SIZE=Thumb&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/GulfOfMexico-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

Good site to see this given present satellite pictures issues. Some increase and good tight circulation.

Thank you

[gatorcane]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=GulfOfMexico-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&PAGETYPE=static&SIZE=Thumb&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/GulfOfMexico-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

Good site to see this given present satellite pictures issues. Some increase and good tight circulation.

Excellent link thanks!

[floridasun78]

i see noaa got issue with it goes sat it date oct 20

[TheStormExpert]

So is the polar front supposed to go past South Florida at this point? Thank you for the info.

The current analysis by the excellent NCEP/WPC has the front making it all the way through south Florida and then reaching central Cuba on Sunday but then washing out on Sunday night/Monday. That is why this is such a tough forecast. If this tropical low does stay at least 50 to 100 miles south of Cuba and the front does dissipate on Sunday, then the low could drift under weak steering winds south of western Cuba early next week and that would give it a chance to strengthen considerably, especially if the shear stays low there as is currently forecast. Just way too far out to tell right now.

I will hate to call it a polar cold front when 70 deg dewpoint isotherm does not go any further south than the 23rd latitude in the NW Caribbean, a real polar cold front brings down dewpoints at least in the 50s all the way down to the central Caribbean.

So how is a front even going to be able to make it all the way into the NW Caribbean? With the NAO/AO already Neutral and heading Positive. Plus the PNA heading Negative. Very unfavorable for troughiness in the Eastern U.S., ridging seems more likely.

[gatorcane]

Using the link Alienstorm posted above, we can see that convection burst is basically over the center...a good sign it could be organizing.

It's got about 36 hours or so left over water and the environment is supposed to become more favorable during this time according to the global model guidance.

Also we are talking about a 1000MB area of low pressure which is very low for just an invest. It wouldn't surprise me if we see an upgrade before it makes landfall.

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