ATL: Ex NINE

[TheStormExpert]

Using the link Alienstorm posted above, we can see that convection burst is basically over the center...a good sign it could be organizing.

It's got about 36 hours or so left over water and the environment is supposed to become more favorable during this time according to the global model guidance.

Also we are talking about a 1000MB area of low pressure which is very low for just an invest. It wouldn't surprise me if we see an upgrade before it makes landfall.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With it's pressure being down to 1000mb wouldn't it go straight to TS?

[Hammy]

Using the link Alienstorm posted above, we can see that convection burst is basically over the center...a good sign it could be organizing.

It's got about 36 hours or so left over water and the environment is supposed to become more favorable during this time according to the global model guidance.

Also we are talking about a 1000MB area of low pressure which is very low for just an invest. It wouldn't surprise me if we see an upgrade before it makes landfall.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With it's pressure being down to 1000mb wouldn't it go straight to TS?

All depends on whether winds are above storm intensity.

[Sanibel]

That surface spiral is doing a weird loop and headed NE.

The burst is a sign that it got its act together. Still measely but bursting.

[hurricanekid416]

Special two got issued it's up to 70/70

[Ivanhater]

Blow up of convection over 1000mb (probably less now) low...interesting

[StormingB81]

SPECIAL OUTLOOK....up to 70%

special outlook to update discussion on low pressure area over the
Bay of Campeche

1. Updated: Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and
thunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in the southern
Bay of Campeche have increased and become better organized during
the past hour or two. If the current development trend continues,
tropical cyclone advisories will be initiated later this evening
or overnight. Interests in Mexican state of Campeche and elsewhere
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system
as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued on short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like this is going to be Hannah indeed.

[floridasun78]

wow their saw few you saw was looking better last few frame issue speical outlook

[Hammy]

Does anybody know of a good image downloader to record Sabancuy radar in order to create a loop after the fact? I have SeqDownload but it seems unable to download anything from anywhere now.

[CrazyC83]

Since warnings are necessary, they would have to declare it TD9 at 10 pm CDT...

[HurriGuy]

00Z intensity models for once look to have a general consensus of gradual increasing of intensity. Very slow, but towards 96 hours and beyond, they eventually go to TC status.

[floridasun78]

any mets have update what going goes sat pic ?

[HurriGuy]

Satellite only showing gradual increase of convection near the center. Everything drifting east slowly

[floridasun78]

Satellite only showing gradual increase of convection near the center. Everything drifting east slowly

what sat feed you using one that nhc use say oct 20

[northjaxpro]

I wished we had Recon misson currently in the system. The convective burst taking place this evening I think should bump this to TD or possibly TS Hanna very shortly.

[HurriGuy]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/

If you use second link, go to imagery tab, then atmospheric imagery and there are the satellites. I like to use second link since LSU is my home. Lol.

[NDG]

The current analysis by the excellent NCEP/WPC has the front making it all the way through south Florida and then reaching central Cuba on Sunday but then washing out on Sunday night/Monday. That is why this is such a tough forecast. If this tropical low does stay at least 50 to 100 miles south of Cuba and the front does dissipate on Sunday, then the low could drift under weak steering winds south of western Cuba early next week and that would give it a chance to strengthen considerably, especially if the shear stays low there as is currently forecast. Just way too far out to tell right now.

I will hate to call it a polar cold front when 70 deg dewpoint isotherm does not go any further south than the 23rd latitude in the NW Caribbean, a real polar cold front brings down dewpoints at least in the 50s all the way down to the central Caribbean.

So how is a front even going to be able to make it all the way into the NW Caribbean? With the NAO/AO already Neutral and heading Positive. Plus the PNA heading Negative. Very unfavorable for troughiness in the Eastern U.S., ridging seems more likely.

There is currently a troughiness pattern across the US east Coast lasting over the next 4-6 days or so, after that is when it looks like the pattern will change back to ridging across the eastern US as the NAO & AO does indeed goes to positive and the PNA to negative.

[HurriGuy]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/gulf-and-tropics/WV/

LSU Earth Scan Lab has a different color pallet for water vapor imagery some might like. Does not highlight the dry air as well, but really makes moist environment pop. Check it out.

[ozonepete]

So is the polar front supposed to go past South Florida at this point? Thank you for the info.

The current analysis by the excellent NCEP/WPC has the front making it all the way through south Florida and then reaching central Cuba on Sunday but then washing out on Sunday night/Monday. That is why this is such a tough forecast. If this tropical low does stay at least 50 to 100 miles south of Cuba and the front does dissipate on Sunday, then the low could drift under weak steering winds south of western Cuba early next week and that would give it a chance to strengthen considerably, especially if the shear stays low there as is currently forecast. Just way too far out to tell right now.

I will hate to call it a polar cold front when 70 deg dewpoint isotherm does not go any further south than the 23rd latitude in the NW Caribbean, a real polar cold front brings down dewpoints at least in the 50s all the way down to the central Caribbean.

Lol, that's cause you're from Florida. It's a polar cold front. It's a front behind which is continental polar air. You're thinking Arctic front, I believe.

[NDG]

The current analysis by the excellent NCEP/WPC has the front making it all the way through south Florida and then reaching central Cuba on Sunday but then washing out on Sunday night/Monday. That is why this is such a tough forecast. If this tropical low does stay at least 50 to 100 miles south of Cuba and the front does dissipate on Sunday, then the low could drift under weak steering winds south of western Cuba early next week and that would give it a chance to strengthen considerably, especially if the shear stays low there as is currently forecast. Just way too far out to tell right now.

I will hate to call it a polar cold front when 70 deg dewpoint isotherm does not go any further south than the 23rd latitude in the NW Caribbean, a real polar cold front brings down dewpoints at least in the 50s all the way down to the central Caribbean.

Lol, that's cause you're from Florida. It's a polar cold front. It's a front behind which is continental polar air. You're thinking Arctic front, I believe.

You are right, my bad.